San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Player Props & Odds for Game 3

• In a winner-take-all Game 3, the Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres with a trip to the NLDS on the line
• Veterans Yu Darvish (Padres) and Jameson Taillon (Cubs) meet on the mound
• Find my Padres vs Cubs picks, predictions, and props to target, below, along with up-to-the-minute Padres/Cubs Game 3 odds

The NL Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres (91-73, 39-44 away) and Chicago Cubs (93-71, 51-32 home) comes down to a decisive Game 3 on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field (4:08 pm CT/5:08 pm ET). Dylan Cease and the brilliant Padre bullpen shutout the Cubs in Game 2 (3-0) and the teams have combined for just seven runs in the first 18 innings.

The Game 3 pitching matchup features a pair of seasoned veterans. The visiting Padres will send right-hander Yu Darvish (5-5, 5.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) to the hill against Cubs’ righty Jameson Taillon (11-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Below, I have set out the Padres vs Cubs Game 3 betting odds, the main player props, the pitcher-vs-batter H2H history, plus my top Padres/Cubs picks and predictions.

Jump to: SD vs CHC ODDS || PITCHER-vs-BATTER STATS || PLAYER PROPS || GAME 3 PICKS

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Odds

The odds paint a picture of a tightly contested elimination game, with the Chicago Cubs installed as narrow home favorites. The moneyline suggests a near pick’em, with the Cubs’ vig-free implied probability sitting at approximately 51.1% to win, compared to 48.9% for the visiting Padres. The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the juice shaded towards the under.

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SD vs CHC Odds Movement

The betting market has reacted to the Padres’ convincing Game 2 victory, with moneyline odds shifting in their favor. The Cubs opened as high as -121 favorites at DraftKings, but that line has been bet down to -115. Conversely, the San Diego Padres have moved from +100 underdogs to -105 at some books, though they’re still in plus-money at Caesars.

The total has held steady at 7.5 runs, but the over odds have shifted from +101 to -105, while the under moved from -122 to -115.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Darvish vs Taillon

Both pitchers have considerable history against the batters they’ll see on Thursday and, as you’ll see below, one starter has had considerably more success than the other.

San Diego Padres Career Statistics vs Jameson Taillon

In 110 at-bats, the current San Diego lineup has generated a rock-solid .273 batting average and .726 OPS against Taillon. To his credit, he’s only allowed three balls to leave the yard (Jose Iglesias, Martin Maldonado, Fernando Tatis Jr). But he’s also only generated 14 Ks in those 110 at-bats, which is an abysmal 12.7% K-rate.

Iglesias has by far the best history against Taillon, going 7-for-13 with a homer and two doubles. Xander Bogaerts is just 6-for-28 (.214 average) with five Ks, over a third of Taillon’s 14 strikeouts against this lineup.

Chicago Cubs Career Statistics vs Yu Darvish

Darvish has been phenomenal against the Chicago hitters, limiting them to a .194 average and .551 OPS over a fairly large sample size of 93 at-bats. Only Justin Turner has taken Darvish yard, and he’s yet to take an at-bat in the postseason.

Ian Happ is an ugly 2-for-13 (both singles) with six strikeouts against Darvish.

CHC vs SD Game 3 Player Props

MLB player props as of October 2 at DraftKings.

The pitcher prop market offers some intriguing lines. Darvish’s strikeout total is set at a surprisingly low 3.5. While the Cubs lineup doesn’t have an exceptionally high strikeout rate, Darvish possesses an elite arsenal capable of mowing down any lineup, especially in a playoff atmosphere. He has punched out nine Cubs in 36 career at-bats, a 25% rate. His low K total is a reflection of San Diego’s elite bullpen and a potentially very short leash on Darvish from manager Mike Shildt.

Taillon’s strikeout line is even lower at 2.5. He has only struck out four Padres in 26 career at-bats (a 15.4% rate), making the under a tempting play despite the even odds.

Cubs vs Padres Picks, Predictions & Betting Trends

• Under 7.5 (-108) at FanDuel
• San Diego Padres moneyline (+105) at Caesars
• Darvish over 3.5 Ks (-115) at BetMGM

The best value in this winner-take-all game lies in a low-scoring affair. The primary factor is the man on the mound for the Padres coupled with their lights-out bullpen. Darvish has historically dominated this Cubs roster, holding current hitters to a paltry .195 batting average over 93 at-bats. The Cubs’ offense, which was completely shut down in Game 2, now faces a pitcher with a deep, deceptive arsenal who has a history of success at Wrigley Field. While Jameson Taillon doesn’t have the same overpowering stuff, he has also handled the Padres’ reasonably lineup well, especially when it comes to the long ball, limiting them to just three home runs in 110 at-bats.

Several betting trends support a wager on the under. The total has gone Under in each of the last four meetings between these two clubs, and the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Padres’ last four playoff games.

I am also betting the Padres moneyline at plus-money. They haven’t been a good road team this season, and the Cubs have been elite at home, but the way the San Diego pen has mowed down Chicago hitters in the first two games is too much to ignore. I expect Darvish to be better than Taillon and if he hands the ball to the pen with a lead (or even tied), I love San Diego’s chances of closing it out.