Severino, Yankees Are Heavy -155 Home Underdogs vs Cole, Astros in ALCS Game 3 – Picks & Odds

• Luis Severino takes the ball for the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the ALCS
• He’ll face Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros, unbeaten since May 22
• Sunday’s 3-2, 11th-inning walk-off loss to Houston was the Yankees’ first loss of the 2019 postseason

Gaining a split in Houston to open the ALCS, and sending ace Luis Severino to the mound for Game 3 back home at Yankee Stadium, under normal circumstances, the New York Yankees would feel pretty good about themselves.

But these aren’t normal circumstances. And that’s not a normal pitcher who’ll be facing the Bronx Bombers.

It’s Astros sensation Gerrit Cole.

Severino hasn’t lost in the postseason. Cole hasn’t lost since May 22.

No wonder sportsbooks have established the visiting Astros as the -155 chalk to grab a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Game 3 ALCS Odds

*Odds taken 10/14/19.

The Yankees were 3-0 at home against the Astros during the 2017 ALCS. But Houston still won the series in seven games.

Powered by Cole

Cole was the man in the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays. He beat the Rays twice, including in the win-or-go-home Game 5.

Cole allowed just one run in 15.2 innings. He established a division series record with 25 strikeouts in the series. Cole has struck out at least 10 batters in 11 consecutive starts.

He faced the Yankees once this season, on April 9th. Cole pitched seven innings but didn’t factor in the decision as Houston won 6-3.

In that game, Cole finished with just six strikeouts in seven innings of work. Through 35 starts this season, he’s fanned fewer batters in a game only three times.

Cole has posted 351 strikeouts in 228 innings this season. Opposing batters have taken an MLB-high 671 swings and misses when facing him. They flail and fail to make contact on 18.8 percent of all pitches he throws. At one point, Cole went 73 innings in a row with at least one strikeout.

The last time @GerritCole45 struck out fewer than 10 batters was …

… August 1st. #ALDS pic.twitter.com/OxuCsfF7Pj

— MLB (@MLB) October 11, 2019

The Houston right-hander, 20-5 during the regular season with an AL-leading 2.50 ERA, hasn’t tasted defeat in 145 days. The Astros haven’t lost a game started by Cole since July 12.

Including postseason play, Cole is 18-0 during his unbeaten run. It’s the longest such stretch sice Rube Marquard went 19-0 for the 1912 New York Giants.

Severino’s Numbers Don’t Add Up

The Yankees view Severino as their ace. Even though he’s been limited to just 16 innings of work this season due to rotator cuff inflammation and a lat strain, the Yanks believe he can match Cole.

This appears to be misplaced optimism.

Severino’s postseason history is something quite separate from his regular-season success. He’s toed the rubber in seven playoff starts. Severino has made it through the fifth inning in one of them.

He was 0-2 in two starts against the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. Houston chased him after four innings in Game 2. Severino lasted 4.2 innings in Game 6 that year. His ERA in those two games was 4.15.

A Bombing in the Bronx

On the one hand, Cole has rarely faced a lineup as potent as the Yankees this season. On the other hand, during his unbeaten stretch, Cole has held opposing hitters to a .125 batting average and three extra-base hits – all doubles – with runners in scoring position.

Gerrit Cole is 17-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last 23 starts. The Astros have won his last 14 starts.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 10, 2019

Giancarlo Stanton and Cameron Maybin are a combined 7-for-19 (.368) when facing Cole. The rest of the New York lineup is batting .163 (8-for-49) against him.

In the 2017 Astros-Yankees ALCS, the home team went 7-for-7 in games won.

The visiting Yankees opened this set with a win. The Astros will make it two of three for the road team in Game 3.

Pick: Houston Astros (-155)