Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Picks, Predictions, Props & Odds

• The Rays visit the Tigers at Comerica Park on Monday evening
• Detroit is an impressive 30-14 at home this season but the Rays have been solid on the road (21-16)
• See my Rays vs Tigers picks and predictions, plus the best available odds for the moneyline, runline, and total

One of MLB’s top home teams meets one of the league’s best road teams when the Detroit Tigers (57-34, 30-14 home, 46-40-5 O/U) host the Tampa Bay Rays (49-41, 26-21 away, 38-49-3 O/U) on Monday evening at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.

The Tigers have yet to name a starter, while the Rays are rolling with 26-year-old righty Shane Baz. The first pitch is slated for 6:40 pm ET in the first start of a ten-game Monday slate. Below, I have set out my favorite picks for the game, where to find the best Rays vs Tigers odds for Monday night and, lastly, the main player props for the game.

Rays vs Tigers Picks & Predictions

• Tigers +1.5 (-165) at bet365
• Under 8.5 (-105) at BetMGM

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The Rays are sending a proven, high-upside arm in Shane Baz to the hill. Baz has been solid this year with an 8-3 record, but he’s been the benefit of considerable run support. He has a subpar 4.33 ERA and an even-worse 4.49 FIP, which is also the worst mark of his brief career.

Baz has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters, which will be a key factor against a Detroit lineup featuring Riley Greene and Colt Keith at the top. But the Tigers have been a force at home, posting an incredible 30-14 (.682) record at Comerica Park. Only one team in the majors (the 33-14 Mets) has a better home win percentage. Detroit has thrived against quality opponents lately, as well, going 7-2 (.778) in their last nine home games against teams with a winning record.

Given the Rays’ recent struggles as a favorite (1-4 SU in their last five) and the Tigers’ home-field dominance, taking the Detroit +1.5 is the most prudent play. The line movement on the total is the most telling sign for this game. With sharps hammering the under and moving the line from 9.0 to 8.5 against overwhelming public sentiment, the under is the clear analytical choice.

I am very tempted to bet the Tigers moneyline, which can be found at +102 at FanDuel. But without knowing who’s on the bump, I’m going to play it safer and stick to the Tigers +1.5 on the runline.

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Monday’s MLB odds show a range for the moneyline on this game. Tampa Bay is a slight favorite across the board, but the Rays’ odds range from -121 to -115 (at Caesars). The Tigers are as short as -105 and as long as +102 (at FanDuel). Taking out the juice, the Rays have a 53.3% implied win probability with the Tigers at 46.7%.

The over/under is 8.5 at all books at the moment. Most have the odds at -110 both ways, but BetMGM is offering a better -105 price on the under.

The game total has moved significantly over the last 24 hours. The line opened at a flat 9.0 runs but has since been bet down to 8.5. This half-run drop is significant and runs contrary to heavy public action, as over 92% of tickets are on the over. This reverse line movement strongly indicates that sharp, professional money is backing the under, likely influenced by Baz’s strikeout ability and Comerica Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions.

The moneyline has seen a slight shift from Rays -128 to -125, a minor move suggesting some respect for the Tigers at home. The run line has also adjusted, with the price on the Tigers +1.5 moving from -156 to -167, indicating that bettors are willing to pay a higher premium to back the home team with the run cushion. The combination of uncertainty around Detroit’s starter and the team’s proven ability to win at home has created a dynamic and reactive betting landscape.

Tigers Career Statistics vs Shane Baz

Riley Green has the best career history against Baz, going 2-for-2 with a home run and a walk. No one else on Detroit has an extra-base hit against Baz in a limited 23 at-bats, and Baz has limited the current Detroit hitters to a miniscule .174 batting average.

The Rays’ offense will present a difficult challenge for whomever the Tigers trot out to start. Tampa Bay boasts a league-leading 117 stolen bases and a .260 team batting average. Their aggressive, contact-oriented approach forces pitchers to work efficiently and challenges infield defenses.

Tigers vs Rays Batter Props

MLB player props as of July 7.

For Shane Baz, the strikeout line of 5.5 is intriguing. While he possesses elite swing-and-miss stuff, the Tigers have shown good plate discipline at home. Under 5.5 Ks at -136 reflects this challenge. However, there could be value on his over 2.5 earned runs at +110. The Tigers’ offense is clicking, and key hitters like Riley Greene have had past success against Baz, albeit in a small sample size. Given Detroit’s recent power surge, betting on them to scratch across a few runs against the Rays’ starter offers a nice plus-money opportunity.

Player prop pick: Baz over 2.5 earned runs (+110)