The Best Home Run Picks Today, Including a Two-Leg +3050 HR Parlay

• The MLB has a light, seven-game slate on Monday, June 16
• Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound for the first time since 2023, but I’m more interested in his matchup at the plate
• See my best home run picks today, including a +3050 longshot HR parlay

The MLB slate on Monday is fairly thin – just seven games, starting with Phillies/Marlins at 6:35 pm ET – but I have found two home run picks that I really like. I’m playing them both separately, but also sprinkling a little on a paraly at long odds.

Home Run Picks Today (June 16)

Unfortunately for east-coasters, these home run picks won’t even get started until the sundown. My first pick comes from the Astros/Athletics matchup at Sutter Health Park, first pitch at 7:05 pm ET/10:05 pm ET. My second comes from the marquee matchup between the Padres and Dodgers, first pitch at 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET.

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Home Run Pick #1: Jacob Wilson (+900)

My first home run pick of they day is the Athletics’ Jacob Wilson, the heavy favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year odds, to go yard at home against Lance McCullers Jr and the Astros. Wilson has just one home run in June and is currently in a seven-game homerless drought.

But he’s already faced McCullers once, back on May 28, and it went very well for the Grand Canyon product. Wilson went 2-for-3 with a home run and a double, driving in two runs. His first at-bat was a rare strikeout, the second was a hard-hit double, and the third was a towering homer to left.

McCullers has struggled since coming back from injury in early May. He currently has a career-worst 4.91 ERA and his xERA and FIP are both over four as well (4.27 and 4.23). He’s also sporting a career-worst 1.23 HR/9. His velo is way down (91.9 mph this season, compared to 93.3 mph last year and 94.8 mph career average) and his ground-ball percentage is just 42.9%. It hasn’t been under 50% since his rookie season.

I love the value on Wilson tagging McCullers again at long +900 odds.

HR Pick #2: Ohtani (+215)

There’s a massive amount of excitement around the Padres/Dodgers matchup tonight because Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound for the first time since August 2023. He’s only expected to pitch an inning or two, though, and I’m much more interested in what he’s going to do at the plate against a pitcher he’s crushed.

San Diego is sending veteran Dylan Cease to the mound tonight, a hard-throwing righty Ohtani has seen multiple times. In 22 career at-bats against Cease, Ohtani has a .318 average with three homers, a double, and eight RBI.

Ohtani’s Stats vs Cease

Cease dominated the Dodgers last time out at home, holding them to no runs on three hits over seven innings with a season-high 11 strikeouts. But that was by far the best start of the season for the 29-year-old, who has a disappointing 4.28 ERA through 75.2 innings, which includes a 3.00 ERA at home and 5.65 mark on the road.

It also means the Dodger lineup will have his pitch mix fresh in their minds on Monday night.

The Dodgers absolutely obliterated Cease in last year’s postseason. The Padres hurler had a 14.40 ERA in 5.0 innings over two appearances in the 2024 NLDS.

Ohtani’s 25 homers still lead the NL, despite him hitting just two in his last 12 games. He’s the heavy -260 favorite in the NL MVP odds.