MLB Betting: The Big League’s Misvalued Pitchers

More than 90 games into the baseball season, sportsbooks and bettors have a pretty good feel for most players and teams. Of course, there is much more to betting on the MLB than individuals players: park factors, umpires, and managers all play a role, for instance. While the vast majority of games are priced correctly, there are certain pitchers that are under or overvalued for a variety of reasons. Keep these arms in mind as you handicap games over the final few months of the year.

Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies

There are fewer than 20 big league arms with a WAR of 3.0 or higher. Chatwood, a former Angel (pictured at top), is one of them. A second-round draft pick in 2008, Chatwood has had a mostly forgettable career. His record (8-5) and ERA (3.29) this season are very similar to his breakout 2013 campaign. But he faded to forgettable status in 2014 (when he made just four starts) and 2015 (when he missed the entire season thanks to Tommy John surgery).

What makes Chatwood so good for bettors is not just the fact sportsbooks don’t value him like his statistical peers, such as Cole Hamels, but it is incredibly obvious when to back him: on the road. Chatwood’s ERA at Coors Field is 5.32 this year, and opponents are hitting .299 against him at home. On the road, he’s 5-0 in eight starts with a 1.30 ERA and a .183 opponent batting average. Over 86 career appearances, Chatwood’s road ERA is almost a run-and-a-half better than at home.

Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies

Only eight pitchers in the bigs have lost ten or more games so far. As you would expect, most of them have ugly overall numbers and deserve to be losing . Phillies youngster Jerad Eickhoff isn’t one of them. Eickhoff is unlucky to be sporting a 6-10 record. His 2.4 WAR is 31st in the majors and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five, and seven of his last nine starts. He’s only had two truly bad games all year, and one came at altitude in Colorado. At home this season Eickhoff has a 2.45 ERA. I’ll be seriously considering the Phillies and the unders when he’s on the mound, especially in Philadelphia.

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants

The tide has turned on Samardzija. During his stint with the Cubs earlier in his career, “The Shark’s” numbers should have led to more wins. Now with the Giants, he’s winning more than he should be. There are 30 starters in the MLB with at least nine wins; Samardzija is one of just four with an ERA of 4.00 or higher. While other high-ERA winners like Adam Wainwright and Hisashi Iwakuma are pitching well after rough starts, Samardzija started the year decently, pitched well for most of May, and has been mediocre at best of late. He has allowed five runs or more in three of his last five starts and can’t keep the ball in the yard. In his first 11 starts, Samardzija yielded five homers. Over his last eight, he’s offered up a dozen.

The Giants are very good, but they are due to cool down, and playing against The Shark is a value play, as is the over.

Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.