Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Picks, Player Props, Pitchers & Odds (Game 3)

• The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers in a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday, Oct. 2nd
• Cleveland is a slight home favorite over Detroit in Game 3
• See the Tigers vs Guardians picks, predictions, player props, starting pitchers and Game 3 odds

The Cleveland Guardians (89-75, 46-37 home) host the Detroit Tigers (88-76, 42-41 away) in a winner-take-all Game 3 in their AL Wild Card Series on Thursday afternoon (3:00 pm ET). Cleveland sends young righty Slade Cecconi (7-7, 4.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) to the mound against veteran Detroit right-hander Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).

As noted in the player props section, below, both starters have an outs-recorded line of 11.5 O/U, meaning both bullpens are expected to feature heavily in Thursday’s must-win game.

This article sets out my favorite Tigers vs Guardians Game 3 picks, the relevant pitcher-vs-batter history, Game 3 player props, and the latest DET/CLE odds.

:Jump to: Picks || Pitcher-vs-Hitter Stats || Player Props || Odds

Tigers vs Guardians Picks & Predictions for Game 3

• Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-120) at FanDuel
• Under 7.5 Runs (-130) at ESPN Bet

There are ample question marks around both starters. Jack Flaherty has been solid against the current Guardians roster, holding them to a paltry .205 batting average and .631 OPS over a significant sample size of 112 at-bats. Key Cleveland hitters like Kyle Mazardo (.422 OPS) and Steven Kwan (.583 OPS) have been largely neutralized by the righty, but Flaherty was wildly inconsistent in the second half of the season, posting a 6.84 ERA in June and 5.51 ERA in August, compared to 3.55 and 3.86 marks in July and September, respectively.

His last start two starts were both against the same Cleveland team he’ll see on Thursday, and there was more bad than good (four earned runs on eight hits and four walks over 9.1 innings). The Tigers lost both games (5-1, 4-0). Flaherty was also awful in the 2024 postseason, despite winning a championship with the Dodgers. He was saddled with a horrendous 7.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 22.0 innings. In his career, he has a 5.36 postseason ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 47.0 IP.

Cleveland’s Slade Cecconi has considerably less postseason experience, pitching just two innings with the Diamondbacks in 2023, but he allowed just one hit and no runs.

Detroit has found a reasonable amount of success against Cecconi (.793 OPS, 3 HRs in 38 at-bats) but his two starts against the Tigers this year were both encouraging, allowing just three runs over on 11 hits and four walks over 12.0 IP with 11 Ks.

And even if Cecconi gets into a little trouble early, manager Stephen Vogt will have him on a short leash. When it comes to the bullpens, Cleveland has a big edge. The Guardians pen ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.44) compared to 17th for Detroit (4.05), third in WAR (6.6) compared to 24th for Detroit (1.4), and first in FIP (3.49) compared to 24th for Detroit (4.33).

Several betting trends also support Cleveland, which is 20-5 straight-up in its last 25 and 8-2 in its last ten as a home favorite. They have dominated the head-to-head recently, going 6-2 in their last eight against the Tigers. If Cecconi can limit the damage and hand the game over to Cleveland’s elite bullpen with the score close, the advantage swings firmly back to the home team.

The betting trends also point heavily towards a low-scoring game. The under has cashed in three of the last four meetings between Cleveland and Detroit, and in each of the Tigers’ last four road games following a loss.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Flaherty vs Cecconi

Many of the Guardians batters are intimately familiar with Flaherty, accumulating 112 at-bats against the eight-year veteran. The Tigers have just 38 at-bats against Cecconi, who’s only in his second full MLB season.

Detroit Tigers Career Statistics vs Slade Cecconi

Three different Tigers have gone yard off Cecconi: Zack McKinstry, Wencel Perez, and Spencer Torkelson. Gleyber Torres is the only player with really concerning numbers against the Cleveland starter, going 0-for-6 with a strikeout and a walk. Andy Ibanez is hitless in three at-bats but hasn’t struck out.

Cleveland Guardians Career Statistics vs Jack Flaherty

On the whole, Flaherty has good numbers against Cleveland but there are still areas of concern. Jose Ramirez is a decent 7-for-27 and his seven hits include two home runs, a double, and three RBI. George Valera is 2-for-5 with a home run, which came in Flaherty’s last start. Brian Rocchio, the hero of Game 2, is 3-for-9 with a double.

Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Player Props

MLB player props as of Oct 2, 2025 from DraftKings.

The pitcher markets highlight the low expectations for both starters. Jack Flaherty has an earned-runs line of 1.5 even though his outs props is set at just 11.5 (getting through four innings would be enough to cash the over).

Cecconi also has an earned-runs line of 1.5 and an outs line of 11.5. Unlike Flaherty, the Cleveland starter is plus-money to hit the over on 11.5 outs.

Best DET vs CLE Player Prop to Bet: Cecconi Under 3.5 Ks

Cecconi had just a 20.0% K-rate in the regular season (well below league-average) and that was the highest of his brief career. It’s only slightly better against the Tigers (21.1%) and his leash is going to be much shorter tonight than it was throughout the regular season.

Cecconi was only pulled before the end of the fifth inning five times during the regular season. He was held to three or fewer Ks in three of those starts, including each of the last two. Under 3.5 should be favored here but it’s almost in plus-money at DraftKings.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Odds (Game 3)

The Tigers/Guardians Game 3 odds show a razor-thin margin with Cleveland as long as -120 and Detroit at +105 or shorter. The current vig-free odds give the Guardians a 53.3% implied win probability, compared to 46.7% for the Tigers. The O/U is 7.0 at almost all books in Thursday’s MLB odds, with the over slightly juiced.

Odds commentary as of 10:36 am ET. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best available price if sportsbooks move their lines before first pitch.

CLE vs DET Odds Movement for Game 3

The betting market has seen a slight shift toward the Guardians since lines opened. Cleveland was -113 in the opening lines with Detroit at -107. MLB public betting data hasn’t been released for Game 3 yet but it’s safe to assume early money came in on the Guardians to push the moneyline in their direction.

The total has seen less action, holding steady at 7.0 runs but with the juice moving slightly toward the over (from -109 to -115).