Upcoming Match-ups

Today’s MLB Picks, Odds, Probable Pitchers – Cubs vs Mets

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Jun 17, 2021 · 8:28 AM PDT

Kris Bryant admires his grand slam
Chicago Cubs' Kris Bryant follows the flight of his grand slam in the third inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Monday, April 26, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • See the best bet in baseball tonight (June 17th) when the Cubs visit the Mets
  • Cubs ace Kyle Hendricks faces Marcus Stroman on the mound
  • The Mets are looking to sweep the four-game set

The Chicago Cubs (38-30, 14-20 away) and New York Mets (35-25, 20-6 home) wrap up a four-game series at Citi Field in Queens tonight (7:10 pm ET).

The pitching matchup will see Kyle Hendricks (4.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) facing Marcus Stroman (2.33 ERA, 1..07 WHIP).

The Mets, who have been downright dominant at home this year, are modest favorites, while the over/under is at a miniscule 7.0 runs.

Cubs vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
Chicago Cubs +106 +1.5 (-210) Over 7 (-121)
New York Mets –>-122<— -1.5 (+175) Under 7 (+100)

Odds as of June 17th.

Hendricks Is Struggling

The similarities between the Cubs and Mets is startling. Both teams are 14 games over .500 at home. The Cubs are six games under .500 on the road, while the Mets are five games under away from Citi Field.

Cubs starter Hendricks has a long history of pitching poorly on the road, as well. In 2019, his home/road ERA split was 2.04 vs 5.02. In 2020, it was 1.85 vs 4.06. This season, there’s little to choose between his home/road performance, but that’s because both numbers are well over four.

In short, Hendricks has been the same mediocre road pitcher this season (and struggled in the Friendly Confines).

Stroman Has Been Effective

In his first full season the with Mets, Stroman has been lights out, especially at home. He’s sporting a 1.88 ERA at Citi Field in five starts.

He doesn’t have much history against this Chicago lineup, but what history there is should be encouraging for Mets fans. In 27 at-bats, the Cubs hitters are batting just .250 with a .762 OPS, one home run, three RBI, and two walks.

The Mets numbers against Hendricks are basically the same, just with a larger sample size. They are betting .251 with a .735 OPS, two homers, five RBI, and two walks in 67 at-bats. Over half of those at-bats belong to Jonathan Villar (.227 average in 22 at-bats) and Jose Peraza (.316 average in 19 at-bats.

The Pick

At -122 odds, the Mets need to have a 55% chance to win to be good value. While the Cubbies were able to play over-.500 ball on the road in last year’s 60-game season, this team was also awful away from Wrigley in the last full baseball season. They were 33-48 in 2019 (despite posting a 51-30 home record and +97 run differential overall).

That year, the Mets were 48-33 at home and 38-43 on the road.

In short, the most-relevant recent results indicate that playing at Citi Field gives New York a significant edge. They are also sending the better pitcher to the mound and have more experience against the opposing starter.

Laying -122 is a fair price.

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