Top Home Run Picks for Saturday, March 28 – Get This +900 Bet to Tail

• Who are the best bets to hit a home run today?
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has 5 home runs off Miles Mikolas in just 9 PAs
• See my top home run picks on Saturday, March 28

Predicting home runs is inherently risky business, right?

Fortunately, analytics and history can help guide us toward finding the most likely candidates to leave the yard on any given day.

And, obviously, the x-factor in that equation is: Who’s pitching?

Today, four starting pitchers who allowed at least 26 home runs last season will make their 2026 debut.

• Bryan Woo (SEA) — vs. CLE — 26 HRs allowed
• Jacob deGrom (TEX) — at PHI — 26 HRs allowed
• Jeffrey Springs (ATH) — at TOR — 28 HRs allowed
• Miles Mikolas (WSH) — at CHC — 29 HRs allowed

Will that come into play today?

Let’s dive into the numbers and find the best home run picks for March 28.

HR Pick 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (YES $0.22 per (+355) at Kalshi)

Analysis: PCA has hit 5 career home runs in 9 at-bats — 9 ABs! — vs. Washington starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. Overall, he’s 7-for-9 vs. Mikolas, who was with the Cardinals before signing with Washington. There’s seeing the ball, and then there’s turning a MLB game into batting practice. Is this the most valuable pick available? No, but just like winning teams, we’re trying to get on the board early.

To find this market, just PCA’s name in the Props under the Cubs vs. Nationals game.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Prediction Markets

PCA Home Run

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Kalshi

Chicago C

68%

Washington

34%

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HR Pick 2: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+459 at DraftKings)

Analysis: Long-time NL East rival Jacob deGrom moved on to Texas in 2023, but the Phillies have plenty of experience against him. Unfortunately, most of it has been bad. In 22 starts, deGrom is 9-2 with a 2.55 ERA against the Phillies. But he has allowed 8 home runs — and 4 of those came at Citizen’s Bank Park. Harper has faced deGrom 55 times and is slashing .273/.418/.455 with 2 home runs. He’s the only Phillie in the lineup with multiple homers off deGrom.

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HR Pick 3: Bo Bichette to Hit a Home Run (YES $0.10 per contract (+900) at Kalshi)

Analysis: Bichette went 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts in his Mets debut on Opening Day. What better time to bounce back and deliver your first home run for your new team? Today, Mitch Keller gets the start for the Pirates. Keller allowed 21 home runs last season. His pitch count will be monitored, and we know all too well how porous the Pirates’ bullpen is behind him. Bichette’s sample size vs. Keller is so small (0-for-4 with 1 K) it’s not analytically critical. Bichette hit 18 home runs last season, and at this value, he’s worth a flyer to hit his first big fly with the Mets.

At prediction site Kalshi, Bichette to hit a home run is trading at 10¢ (equivalent to a +900 moneyline). A $10 investment would yield a $90 profit if Bichette leaves the yard.

Prediction Markets

Bo Bichette Home Run

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Kalshi

New York M

64%

Pittsburgh

38%

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