Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions, Picks, Player Props & Betting Lines

• The Toronto Blue Jays meet the Pittsburgh Pirates in a rubber-match matinee on Wednesday
• Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is looking to bounce back from a rough start in his first appearance of the season
• See my favorite Blue Jays vs Pirates picks and predictions for Wednesday’s matinee at PNC Park

The Toronto Blue Jays (74-53, 32-32 away, 65-52-9 O/U) and Pittsburgh Pirates (53-74, 35-30 home, 49-71-6 O/U) clash at PNC Park at 12:35 pm ET on Wednesday. The pitching matchup features Chris Bassitt (11-6, 4.22 ERA) for the visitors against Johan Oviedo (0-0, 18.00 ERA) in the finale of a three-game set.

Even with slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr listed as day-to-day, the Blue Jays have demonstrated impressive depth. Conversely, the Pirates are dealing with a cold spell at the plate and inconsistencies from their pitching staff.

This article will break down the Blue Jays vs Pirates odds, analyze key player props, and provide a data-driven prediction for the matchup.

Jump to: Odds | Pitcher-vs-Batter H2H History | Player Props | Picks

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Lines

Toronto is a strong -172 road favorite, with the Pirates coming back as +141 home underdogs. Removing the juice, the moneyline prices give the Jays a 60.4% implied win probability, compared to 39.6% for the Pirates. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with a slight lean toward the over, which aligns with the Blue Jays’ powerful offense and the Pirates’ recent pitching vulnerabilities.

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TOR vs PIT Odds Movement

The betting market has shown decisive movement in favor of the Blue Jays since the lines opened. Toronto’s moneyline shifted from an opening price of -150 to the current -172 line, a 22-cent move indicating strong confidence from bettors. Similarly, the runline saw a significant adjustment, with the Blue Jays -1.5 moving from +128 to -105. The total has also seen a notable shift, with over 8.5 moving from +101 to -116, a clear indicator that the market anticipates a high-scoring affair, likely driven by Toronto’s offense.

This movement can be attributed to several factors. The Blue Jays’ recent offensive surge, combined with the Pirates’ pitching struggles, provides a clear narrative. The MLB public betting splits confirm this trend, with over 87% of moneyline tickets backing the Blue Jays.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Bassitt vs Oviedo

Johan Oviedo, a 27-year-old righty, is in his fifth MLB season, but he’s spent it all in the NL, so there is limited history between the 6’6 Cuban and the Toronto lineup. There is considerably more history between 11-year veteran Bassitt and the Pittsburgh hitters.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Johan Oviedo

Toronto’s lineup only has 18 total at-bats against Oviedo, but what history does exist clearly favors the batters. They have managed a .333 average and .873 OPS, though none of the Jays hitters have taken Oviedo yard. Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk have the only extra-base hits (a pair of doubles). Five of the six Blue Jay hitters who have faced Oviedo have at least one hit off the towering righty.

Pittsburgh Pirates Career Statistics vs Chris Bassitt

The Pirates have accumulated 56 at-bats against the veteran Bassitt, and it has been ugly for the hitters. They have managed just a .214 and horrendous .504 OPS against the Toronto starter with no home runs and only two doubles. Bryan Reynolds (.333 average, .845 OPS in 12 at-bats) has been by far the best Pittsburgh hitter against Bassitt.

Blue Jays vs Pirates Player Props

MLB player props as of August 20 at DraftKings.

Bassitt’s strikeout line of 4.5 seems attainable against a Pirates lineup that can be prone to punchouts. The over (-150) is juiced, but given his recent form and the matchup, it’s a solid look. He has a history of limiting damage, making under 2.5 earned runs (-150) another intriguing option, especially considering Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles.

For Oviedo, under 3.5 strikeouts (-135) is tempting. He faces a disciplined Blue Jays lineup that boasts a high walk rate and doesn’t strike out excessively. Given his command issues in his only other start this season, Toronto hitters are likely to work deep counts, potentially leading to an early exit and fewer opportunities for strikeouts.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Prediction

The pitching matchup heavily favors the Blue Jays. Bassitt has been a reliable arm for Toronto, bringing an 11-6 record and a 4.22 ERA to the mound. His ability to induce ground balls and limit hard contact plays perfectly at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been scuffling, ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored over the last ten games. While Bryan Reynolds has had some success against Bassitt in a small sample size, the rest of the Pirates lineup has struggled.

On the other side, Oviedo is a major question mark for Pittsburgh. His season debut was disastrous, and he now faces one of the most potent offenses in baseball. The Toronto lineup, even potentially without Guerrero, has enough firepower to cause significant problems.

Several betting trends reinforce the Blue Jays’ advantage. Toronto is an impressive 5-1 (.833) in their last six road games against opponents with a losing record and 8-3 (.727) as a favorite in their last 11 contests. The head-to-head history is also telling, with the Blue Jays winning six of their last eight games against the Pirates.

The total is worth a strong look, as well. The over has hit in ten of Toronto’s last 11 games against losing teams and in eight of their last ten road games. Given Oviedo’s struggles and the Blue Jays’ offensive prowess, Toronto should be able to score early and often. While the Pirates have been surprisingly decent at home as an underdog (9-3 in their last 12), their current form and the pitching mismatch are too significant to ignore.

Picks:

• Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-172)
• Over 8.5 Runs (-116)
• Bassitt under 2.5 earned runs (-150)

TOR vs PIT Public Betting Splits

The public is overwhelmingly backing the Blue Jays, with 87.2% of moneyline tickets and a staggering 96.7% of the money wagered on the visitors. A similar trend is seen on the runline, where 89.4% of bettors are taking the Blue Jays to cover the -1.5 spread.

The total-runs market is also seeing heavy action on one side, with 85.8% of bets on the over 8.5, indicating a widespread belief that this will be a high-scoring game, likely driven by Toronto’s offense.