Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Player Props & Expert Picks (Game 5)

• With the ALCS tied 2-2, the Blue Jays and Mariners meet in a pivotal Game 5 in Seattle on Friday
• Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound against Seattle’s Bryce Miller
• See my Blue Jays vs Mariners expert picks, predictions, and player props to bet in Game 5

The Seattle Mariners (95-76, 52-33 home) got an outstanding and somewhat unexpected performance from #5 starter Bryce Miller (5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in reg. season) in Game 1 of the ALCS. In a massive Game 5 on Friday, the Mariners will hope for the same when they host Kevin Gausman (3.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in reg. season) and the Toronto Blue Jays (99-71, 41-44 away) with the best-of-seven affair tied 2-2.

First pitch for Game 5 at T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 3:08 pm PT on Friday afternoon. Below, I have set out the full list of player props, the relevant pitcher-vs-batter history, my expert Blue Jays vs Mariners picks and, lastly, up-to-the-minute odds for Game 5. Use the links below to navigate to each section directly.

Go to: Player Props || Pitcher-vs-Batter Stats || Expert Picks || Game 5 Odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays Player Props for Game 5

MLB player props as of Oct. 17 at FanDuel.

The prop market provides some fascinating insights. The most glaring data point is Cal Raleigh’s history against Kevin Gausman. Raleigh is 8-for-14 with four home runs against the Blue Jays ace, making his hits prop of 0.5 (Ov -165) look incredibly appealing despite the heavy juice. For bettors looking for plus-money, his home-run prop at +235 is a must-consider.

For the pitchers, Bryce Miller’s props suggest a very short leash. His outs line is set at just 11.5, and his strikeouts line is a paltry 2.5. This indicates the betting market expects the Mariners to turn to their bullpen early in this must-win game, despite Miller’s stellar performance in Game 1 of this series (6.0 IP, 2H, 1 ER, 3 BB). Gausman’s Strikeouts line of 5.5 is achievable, but his struggles against key Mariners hitters like Raleigh could lead to an early exit.

The tables below show the full history of each lineup against the opposing starting pitcher, starting with the Jays against Miller.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Bryce Miller

Nearly half of Toronto’s 49 at-bats against Miller came in Game 1, when he allowed just two hits and three walks while facing 23 batters. George Springer launched a first-inning home run (Toronto’s only run of Game 1), which was his second off Miller in nine ABs. No other Blue Jay hitter has taken the Seattle righty deep.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman

Gausman has handled the dangerous Seattle lineup fairly well, limiting them to a .232 average, .666 OPS, and seven home runs in 155 ABs. Cal Raleigh has been his kryptonite, going 8-for-17 (.447 avg) with four home runs. One of those dingers came in Game 1, a huge game-tying solo shot in the sixth inning that was the beginning of the end for Gausman’s night. He’d pitched five shutout innings up to that point.

Expert Picks for Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 5

• Blue Jays moneyline (-110) at Caesars
• Over 7.0 runs (-118) at FanDuel
• Springer over 1.5 total bases (+120) at Fanatics

Baseball can be a game of streaks and the Blue Jays are red-hot at the plate right now, pounding out 21 runs in the last two games. Toronto should also have a discernible advantage on the mound with Kevin Gausman facing Bryce Miller. Yes, Miller was good last time out, holding the Jays to just one run over a full six innings, but he doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, and every Toronto hitter just got a good look at it five days ago.

Gausman has only struggled against one hitter in the Seattle lineup – Cal Raleigh – and that’s a problem he can pitch around. The Blue Jays have also been exceptional on the road against quality opponents, going 4-1 in their last five. Conversely, the Mariners have struggled at home recently, posting a 2-6 record in their last eight games at T-Mobile Park.

In addition to the Toronto moneyline, I’m also betting the over. Several betting trends strongly support a high-scoring game. The over has hit in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams and in six of Toronto’s last eight playoff games. With both bullpens showing signs of fatigue, this trend is likely to continue. .

My last Blue Jays/Mariners picks for Game 5 is George Springer – Toronto’s lead-off hitter – to go over 1.5 total bases at a juicy +120 price. Springer already has two home runs off Miller and led the Jays with 32 in the regular season. He’s had an extra-base hit in each of the last five games (three doubles, two home runs) and in six of eight postseason games to date, which is why he has an elite .911 OPS in the playoffs despite a middling .250 batting average.

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

The current Blue Jays/Mariners odds are a toss-up at most books, with both teams priced at -110. There are some discrepancies from book to book, though. Mariners bettors can get the Seattle moneyline at -104 at FanDuel. Toronto bettors won’t find a better price than -110 at Caesars. The run total is a miniscule 7.0, a number these teams have blown by in each of the last three games. However, the only game of the series to stay under was Game 1, which featured this same starting-pitcher matchup (Gausman vs Miller).

Odds commentary as of 12:44 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best available price for each market if the MLB odds shift before first pitch.

Game 5 Odds Movement

The betting market has seen a significant shift in favor of the Blue Jays. Seattle opened as -118 favorites at FanDuel, but money has poured in on Toronto, flipping them to -112 favorites while Seattle now sits at -104. This 14-cent move toward the visitors reflects the impact of their dominant Game 4 performance and the ongoing trend of the road team winning every game in this series.

The total has also seen minor movement. Opening at 7.0 runs with the under favored at -115, the line has held at 7.0, but the juice has flipped to the over at -115. This indicates strong public and likely sharp action on a higher-scoring affair.

TOR vs SEA Game 5 Public Betting Splits

The MLB public betting splits favor the road warriors in this pivotal Game 5, with 60% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline handle on the Blue Jays.

The total shows overwhelming consensus, with 84% of all bets on the over along with 78% of O/U handle.

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