Updated Vladimir Guerrero Props After First Major League Home Run: Over/Under HR Total Set at 18.5

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ended the long wait for his first MLB home run by hitting a pair of dingers on Tuesday night
• Despite his offensive outburst, Guerrero now faces diminished expectations following a late, and slow, start to the season
• With the Blue Jays’ team offense ranked among the worst in MLB, Guerrero is likely to struggle to exceed projections

The long wait for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s first major league home run came to a close in spectacular fashion on Tuesday night, with the 20-year-old connecting on a pair of dingers in his 14th game with the Toronto Blue Jays, a 7-3 win over the San Francisco Giants.

With the pressure to hit his first career home run now lifted, Guerrero can focus on being a steady producer at the plate. However, his delayed arrival in the big leagues, and a relatively slow start since getting called up on April 26th, have led to tempered expectations, where Guerrero’s home run total for the 2019 MLB season is now pegged at just 18.5.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Home Run Odds

*All odds taken 05/16/19

#BlueJays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit his first home run Tuesday night against the San Francisco Giants since being called up to the majors on April 26. READ MORE: https://t.co/yGX74O2t5E pic.twitter.com/8a3vfiXFPi

— CityNews Toronto (@CityNews) May 15, 2019

After producing at every level of minor league ball, Guerrero arrived at Spring Training amid considerable fanfare. Big things were expected of the son of Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who sat perched as a heavy -150 favorite to hit OVER 23.5 home runs in late February, and with good reason. Guererro connected on 20 long balls in just 91 games split between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo last season, while maintaining an eye-popping .381 batting average over the course of the campaign.

Pick: OVER 18.5 (-115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Batting Average Odds

With his arrival in Toronto coinciding with a slide that has seen the Blue Jays post just six wins in 17 games going into their series opener with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday night, Guererro now faces tempered expectations across the board. The Blue Jays have produced an average of just 2.94 runs per game since calling up Guerrero, a situation that looks unlikely to change anytime soon.

In a three week stretch from April 8 to April 28, the Blue Jays went 11-6 while scoring 5.18 runs per game.

The rest of the season, they are 4-16 and scoring 2.30 runs per game

— Brian Swane (@BrianSwane) May 9, 2019

Guerrero has enjoyed a bump in production since moving to the two-spot in the batting order, getting multiple hits in two of five outings after going a dismal 6-for-37 while batting in the bottom half of the order.

Guerrero has enjoyed a bump in production since moving to the two-spot in the batting order, getting multiple hits in two of five outings.

However, with no big bats surrounding him, opposing pitchers will take every opportunity to pitch around Major league Baseball’s top prospect, fueling a drop in the OVER/UNDER on Guerrero’s batting average for the 2019 season, which has tumbled to .260, well back of the .295 that he was pegged at back in February.

Pick: UNDER .260 (-115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Total RBI Odds

It is no secret that beyond Guerrero, the Blue Jays’ roster features no big bats that can be counted on to produce consistent offence over the course of a season. As a result, the Blue Jays’ rapid descent to 28th in MLB in hits, and 26th in runs scored will contribute to diminished opportunities for Guerrero to drive in runs.

Pick: UNDER 60.5 (-115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Runs Scored Odds

Sometimes you have to look at it more than once to really believe it. Don’t yell at me, these are just the facts. #BlueJays #MLB pic.twitter.com/J9ayEQKxoG

— Scott MacArthur ?️‍? (@ScottyMacThinks) May 14, 2019

Guerrero’s two home runs have produced his only two runs scored so far this season, and four of his six RBI. While Guerrero’s run production is likely to turn the corner eventually, putting him in position to pay out as a -115 bet to produce OVER 52.5 runs, the Blue Jays’ chronic inability to put base runners on will limit Guerrero’s ability to reward sports bettors taking the OVER in total RBI this season, which now sits at 60.5

Pick: OVER 52.5 (-115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Hits Odds

With the MLB season now passing the quarter mark, Guerrero is also likely to struggle to top the hits total that currently sits at 119.5 on the MLB specials.

Let’s Freak Out About Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. https://t.co/PQPAfm0pku

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) May 9, 2019

Currently projected by FanGraphs.com to have 441 at-bats over the course of the 2019 season, Guerrero will need to show dramatic improvement in his batting average to pay out as a -115 bet to tally OVER 119.5 hits.

Guerrero has just 12 hits to his credit, and a .222 batting average, and will likely have to hit at a .280 clip the rest of the way to top 120 hits this season. But with the Blue Jays likely to get worse before they get better, that is too much to ask from the club’s top rookie as he makes the adjustment to big league ball.

Pick: UNDER 119.5 (-115)