USA vs Mexico Odds, Picks & How to Watch WBC Game on March 9th
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The USA and Mexico meet in a heavyweight tilt at the WBC on Monday night
- Reigning NL Cy Young-winner Paul Skenes starts for the Americans against former Brave Manny Barreda
- See my top USA vs Mexico picks, plus the latest odds (moneyline, runline, and total)
Arguably the best game of the WBC group stage takes place on Monday night as Team USA (2-0, +18 run differential) takes on Mexico (2-0, +22 run differential). Both teams have blitzed their first two opponents. The USA has the stronger lineup on paper, of course, but the Mexican side is filled with MLB stars.
How to Watch Team USA vs Mexico
Tonight’s WBC tilt between the USA and Mexico will be broadcast live on FOX, which be streamed live on Fubo TV.
First pitch is set for 8:00 pm ET (7:00 pm local time) at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.
USA vs Mexico Odds (WBC)
At prediction site Kalshi, the Americans are trading at 81¢ to win (equal to a -426 moneyline) with Mexico at 21¢ (equal to a +376 moneyline).
The default runline is USA -3.5, with the USA at 55¢ to cover (equal to -122 odds) and Mexico at 48¢ to keep the score within three runs (equal to +108 odds).
Over 10.5 runs is trading at 56¢ (-127 odds); under 10.5 runs is trading at 47¢ (+113 odds).
Readers who don’t already have a Kalshi account can click “PREDICT” in the graphic above to claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code. If you don’t live in a region where Kalshi operates, try the Novig promo code or one of the other available prediction markets.
USA vs Mexico Picks & Predictions for WBC
Run-Total Pick: Under 11.5 (56¢ at Kalshi)
My best bet for USA vs Mexico is under 11.5 total runs. Mexico has allowed just two runs through 18 innings. Former Brave Manny Barreda toes the rubber for El Tri, and he’ll have a monumental task containing a USA lineup that’s put up 24 runs in two games. But this will be by far the best pitching staff the Americans have faced in the tournament. They were shutout for four innings by Great Britain yesterday before exploding on a thin bullpen for nine runs.
USA’s first tournament game was a 15-5 laugher against Brazil, the worst team in the tournament according to the WBC title odds.
The USA will send reigning NL Cy Young-winner Paul Skenes to the mound with a ton of firepower in relief once Skenes hits his 60-pitch limit. The Mexico lineup has plenty of potent bats, including Randy Arozarena, Jarren Duran, and Alejandro Kirk. But they aren’t likely to scrape across more than a few runs against the elite arms in the US rotation/bullpen. A scoreline in the 8-2 or 7-3 range is likely, and the price on under 11.5 runs at Kalshi (56¢) doesn’t have too high a premium.
I’m also betting under 0.5 runs (+125) in the first inning at DraftKings.
Top Player Prop to Bet: Skenes 5+ Strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
Skenes has crushed the MLBers at the top of the Mexico lineup.
He has fanned Randy Arozarena three times in eight plate appearances, Jarren Duran twice in three PAs, and Jonathan Aranda twice in three PAs as well.
Neither Alejandro Kirk or Rowdy Tellez has a career at-bat against the Pirates flamethrower, which is usually an advantage for the pitcher.
So his K-rate against the five best Mexico hitters is 50%. The fringe and non-major-leaguers at the bottom of Mexico’s order are likely to be completely overwhelmed.
The pitch limit is the obvious risk here, but I don’t expect Skenes – who had the second-best K% in the NL last season (29.5%) – to need more than 10 or 11 batters to hit five Ks.
The price at FanDuel is way better than other sportsbooks. This prop is as short as -165 at DraftKings.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
