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Verlander, Astros Are -158 Favorites vs Paxton, Yankees in ALCS Game 2 – Picks & Odds

Justin Verlander ready for the wind up
Both Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros will be looking to get back on track in Game 2 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees. Photo by D. Benjamin Miller (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Justin Verlander gets the start for the Houston Astros Sunday in Game 2 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees
  • Verlander, coming off a loss in Game 4 of the ALDS, hasn’t lost consecutive postseason starts since the 2006 World Series
  • Get the all the info you need to bet this game below

Justin Verlander was the wrong answer for the Houston Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS. He just might be the best solution Houston has available for Game 2 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees.

Verlander, who will face Yanks southpaw James Paxton on Sunday (at 8:08pm ET), has made six postseason starts against the Yankees. He’s 4-0 in those games, and his team is 5-1.

He’s 3-0 when facing the Bronx Bombers in the ALCS.

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Game 1 ALCS Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under at Bovada*
New York Yankees +138 +1.5 (-150) Over 7.5 (-110)
Houston Astros -158 -1.5 (-130) Under 7.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/13/19.

Bovada likes Verlander and the Astros, 7-0 losers to New York in Game 1 of this best-of-seven series, to bounce back strongly in Game 2. The sportsbook lists Houston as -158 favorites in the Yankees vs Astros Game 2 odds.

Verlander is 14-8 with a 3.20 ERA in postseason play.

Justin’s Time

Verlander’s career ALCS numbers are impressive. He’s 6-3 lifetime in nine appearances. The right-hander has allowed 20 earned runs in 61 innings for a 2.95 ERA.

Against the Yankees, though, Verlander is simply astonishing. He’s faced New York three times in the ALCS.  Overall, Verlander is 3-0. He’s pitched 24.1 innings against the Yankees and allowed one earned run. That’s an 0.37 ERA.

In other words, if the Astros score a run in Game 2, the numbers say that they will win.

Verlander faced the Yankees twice during the regular season and was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA. Taking into account regular and postseason play, he’s won his last five decisions from them, and hasn’t lost to the Yanks since 2015.

Gleyber Believers

Of course, the Astros didn’t score a run in Game 1. They were drubbed 7-0 by the Yankees hitting machinery.

Gleyber Torres drove in five runs in the victory. At 22, he became the youngest Yankee to ever collect five RBI in a playoff game.

He was the third-youngest to do so in MLB postseason history. Only Andruw Jones (19 years old, 180 days) and Addison Russell (22, 283) were younger. Torres is 8-for-16 in the playoffs with eight RBI.

The Yankees were 0-4 at Houston’s Minute Maid Park during their seven-game loss to the Astros in the 2017 ALCS.

In MLB playoff history, teams that win Game 1 of a best-of-seven series carry on to win the series 64% of the time (112-of-176). In the 2-3-2 format, the Game 1 winner takes the series only 56% of the time (36-of-64).

Paxton vs Verlander

Verlander led the majors with 21 wins this season. He’s also made 27 career postseason starts, 11 in the last three seasons.

Paxton won 15 games for the Yankees this season. He made his first career playoff appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Minnesota Twins. Paxton didn’t bring his A-game, allowing three earned runs in 4.2 innings.

He’s 8-4 with a 3.24 ERA in his career against the Astros.

Since 2008, Verlander has thrown 44 pitches of 100 mph or faster from the eighth inning onward. Second on that list is Paxton, with five.

It’s Houston, No Problem

The Astros are 6-4 this season in games following a loss and Verlander as their starting pitcher. Unlike the ALDS against Tampa Bay, this time Verlander takes the hill on his regular rest.

The Astros are 13-4 in their last 17 home playoff games. The Yankees are just 4-10 in their last 14 games at Houston. The Astros won all three regular-season games against the Bronx Bombers played this season at Minute Maid Park.

Verlander fanned 21 Yanks in 16 innings during the 2017 ALCS.

Pick: Houston Astros (-158).

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