Paxton, Yankees -179 Favorites Over Berrios, Twins in ALDS Game 1 – Picks & Odds
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 31, 2020 at 7:42 am EDTPublished:
- James Paxton and the New York Yankees are the -179 chalk to beat the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS
- Paxton is 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA over the past month
- Minnesota is 2-13 all-time against the Yankees in postseason play
James Paxton is just another edge that the New York Yankees probably don’t need against the Minnesota Twins.
The history of Yankees-Twins in the MLB postseason is so lopsided, it seems almost unfair.
Including their 2017 American League Wild Card game, this will be the sixth time these two teams have clashed in the AL playoffs. The Yankees have won all five previous encounters. They’ve taken 13 of 15 games from the Twins.
Books have established the Yankees as -179 favorites to win Game 1 of this best-of-five set in the Twins vs Yankees Game 1 odds.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Game 1 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | +169 | +1.5 (-125) | Over 8.5 (-121) |
| New York Yankees | -179 | -1.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (+101) |
*Odds taken 10/04/19.
Paxton is 3-1 lifetime against the Twins with a 2.27 ERA.
Berrios vs Paxton: A Tale Of Two Pitchers
Paxton was 5-6 on July 26. Since then, the Yankees have won each of his 11 starts and he’s gained the decision in 10 of those victories, while posting a 2.51 ERA. The southpaw’s ERA dropped nearly a full run over that run of success, from 4.72 to 3.82. Paxton finished the season with 186 strikeouts.
James Paxton is your Game 1 starter. CC Sabathia left off ALDS roster.
Aaron Boone explains… pic.twitter.com/Mk0LKCKWBD
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) October 3, 2019
The story for the Twins’ Game 1 starter, Jose Berrios, isn’t nearly as compelling. He began strongly. Through his first 22 starts of the season, Berrios was 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA. That earned him a spot in the All-Star Game.
But over his final 10 starts, Berrios saw his ERA jump to 5.83. His walks per nine innings skyrocketed from 1.9 to 3.22.
Jose Berrios in 3 career games vs. #Yankees:
1-2, 14 IP, 9 ER, 5.79 ERA, .293 BAA
Jose Berrios in 2 career games at Yankee Stadium:
0-2, 7.1 IP, 8 ER, 9.82 ERA, .324 BAA
— Chris Stacy (@ChrisJr_NYYST) October 3, 2019
Both of these teams hit the long ball. The Twins set a new MLB mark with 307 home runs. That was one more than the Yankees hit.
If Berrios is busily issuing free passes, when the Yankees homer, the runs are going to add up fast.
Minnesota hitters slash it at a weak .232/.271/.392 with four home runs against Paxton in 125 career at-bats. The Yankees are .302/.397/.508 in 63 at-bats against the right-handed Berrios.
Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are a combined 11-22. Judge is 3-for-5 with a double against Berrios. Gregorius is 3-for-6 with a home run and a double.
Twins Win In One
The Twins don’t often beat the Yankees in the postseason. But when they do, it’s always in Game 1 of an ALDS at Yankee Stadium.
Both of Minnesota’s playoff victories against the Yankees were Game 1 decisions. The Twins blanked the Yankees 2-0 in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS at Yankee Stadium.
The visiting Twins were also 3-1 victors to open the 2003 ALDS against the Bronx Bombers.
In Game 1 of a playoff series at Yankee Stadium, the Twins are a .500 team (2-2). In all other playoff meeting with the Yanks, no matter the locale, Minnesota is winless (0-11).
Yankees Riding High
The Bronx Bombers, who led MLB with 943 runs, are riding a 10-game postseason winning streak against the Twins. In their last meeting, when the Yanks beat the Twins 8-4 in the 2017 AL Wild Card game, it was Berrios who took the loss for Minnesota.
Berrios enjoyed just one quality start over his last 10 appearances. Paxton was 7-3 with a 3.35 ERA at Yankee Stadium this year, holding opponents to a .211 average. He struck out 97 in 78 innings.
Rocco Baldelli on the postseason history between the @Twins and Yankees: "I'll say it again: I don't care about what's happened here in the past." pic.twitter.com/TkVxa3ucRx
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) October 3, 2019
One thing the Twins have going for them is that they’ve hit lefties well all season long. Minnesota owns an .872 OPS against left-handers this season.
The Yankees won four of six games from the Twins this season, going 2-1 at home and 2-1 on the road.
Pick: New York Yankees (-179)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
