New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks, Predictions, Props & Odds (Game 1)

• The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday
• Kevin Gausman goes for the Jays against Luis Gil for the Yankees
• See the Yankees vs Blue Jays picks, player props, and best odds for Game 1 on Oct. 4th

The intensity of October baseball arrives in Toronto as the Blue Jays (94-68, 54-27 home) look for their first playoff victory since 2016 when they host the New York Yankees (94-68, 44-37 away) in Game 1 of the ALDS at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto sends ace Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) to the mound against New York’s Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).

First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 pm ET on Saturday, October 4th, and Toronto is a slight home favorite in the Yankees vs Blue Jays odds.

Jump to: Odds || Pitcher-vs-Hitter Stats || Player Props || Picks

Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds

Early on game day, Toronto’s best moneyline price is -124, while the Yankees are as long as +106. The run total ranges from 7.5 to 8.0. Removing the juice, the moneyline prices give the Jays a 53.2% implied win probability, with the Yankees at 46.8%. The total is set at a standard 8.0 runs.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

TOR vs NYY Odds Movement

The betting market has seen notable movement since the opening lines were posted. The consensus total opened at 7.5 runs but was quickly bet up to 8.0, a move fueled by overwhelming public action, with approximately 95% of tickets coming in on the over in the MLB public betting splits.

The moneyline has seen a slight shift, with the Blue Jays opening around -120 and settling at the current -124. Interestingly, public betting splits show a slight majority of tickets on the Blue Jays, but a massive 78% of the handle is on the Yankees.

Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Gil vs Gausman

The Yankees are intimately familiar with Gausman, racking up 262 at-bats against the 34-year-old righty. Overall, the results have been good for New York (.841 OPS) but Gausman was borderline dominant his last two outings against the Pinstripes (July 21 and Sep 5), going a total of 15.0 innings and allowing just two runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 Ks.

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman

Aaron Judge has the best history against Gausman, mashing six home runs and three doubles in 48 at-bats, with a .354 average and massive 1.283 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt (1.192 OPS in 22 at-bats) and Giancarlo Stanton (1.161 OPS in 30 at-bats) have also crushed Gausman over the years.

Cody Bellinger (2-for-25, 9 Ks) and Ben Rice (0-for-7) stand out as good fade options against Gausman.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Luis Gil

Gil has been effective against the Blue Jays as a whole, holding them to no home runs, a .631 OPS, and a .188 average in 64 at-bats. The player who’s given him the most trouble is Vlad Guerrero Jr (3-for-7 with two doubles and a 1.351 OPS).

Bo Bichette, who hasn’t played since Sep. 6, is questionable to make Toronto’s ALDS roster due to a lingering wrist injury.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Player Props

MLB player props as of October 4 at DraftKings.

The player prop market offers intriguing angles based on the historical matchups. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have both tormented Kevin Gausman in their careers, combining for six home runs against him. Judge’s total-bases prop is set at 1.5 with near even-money on the over (-103), which is enticing given his 1.283 career OPS against the Blue Jays’ ace.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr has a stellar 1.351 OPS against Luis Gil in a small sample size. He’s priced at +123 to go over 1.5 total bases but, if he’s going to get there, it might have to be with a pair of singles. Guerrero has just one extra-base hit (a double) in his last 19 games.

Gausman’s strikeout line is 6.5; he only hit seven-plus Ks in one of his four regular-season starts against the Yankees. Gil’s is a low 3.5, a number he failed to surpass in each of his last three starts. Though he did get to four in his only regular-season start against Toronto. He sports a very pedestrian 21.9K% against the Blue Jays lineup.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks

• Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-124) at FanDuel
• Under 8.0 runs (-112) at DraftKings
• Guerrero Jr over 1.5 total bases (+127) at DraftKings

I’m siding with the Blue Jays for a few reasons. First, they’re rested; second, they’ve been exceptionally tough to beat at the Rogers Centre; third, Kevin Gausman has had a lot of success against the Yankees recently, despite some longer-term struggles.

New York starter Luis Gil is far less seasoned in high-pressure postseason environments. He was awful in two postseason starts last year, saddled with a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across eight innings of work. While he has handled most of the Blue Jays’ lineup well, Guerrero presents a significant challenge for him.

The total of 8.0 runs is a touch high given the trends. The under has cashed in each of the Yankees’ last five games overall and their last four on the road. With both teams sending quality arms to the mound and bullpens ready for a high-leverage situation, runs should be at a premium. The public is overwhelmingly on the Over, creating a classic fade opportunity.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!