Yankees vs Mets Predictions, Picks & Odds for July 4th

• The Subway Series is renewed on Friday when the New York Mets host the New York Yankees at Citi Field
• The Mets have won seven of their last ten and boasting an impressive 31-13 record at home this season.
• This preview breaks down the odds, key player props, and provides data-driven predictions, highlighting value in the moneyline and total runs markets.

The New York Mets (50-38, 31-13 home, 38-4-1 O/U) host the New York Yankees (48-39, 22-22 away, 34-49-4 O/U) in the opener of the latest iteration of the Subway Series at Citi Field in Flushing, Queens. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 pm ET on Friday, July 4. The pitching matchup sees Mets right-hander Justin Hagenman (0-0, 1.50 ERA) making his first career start against Yankees righty Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA).

The Mets enter on a two-game win streak and own the MLB’s best home win percentage (70.5%), while the Yankees have dropped four in a row to fall back to .500 on the road and out of the lead in the AL East. This article will dissect the betting odds, analyze key player props, and provide our top picks for this interleague showdown.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Odds

The Mets are slight home favorites in Friday’s MLB odds, sitting at -125. The Yankees come back as +105 road underdogs. The run total is sitting at 9.5 with the under favored at -120 and the over priced at even money.

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The Yankees, despite their powerful lineup, are underdogs in large part due to Marcus Stroman’s recent struggles. A vig-free analysis of the moneyline implies the market gives the Mets a 53.3% chance of winning, compared to 46.7% for the Yankees. The relatively high 9.5-run total has been influenced by warm, hitter-friendly weather conditions and Stroman’s propensity to give up runs this season.

NYM vs NYY Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement since lines opened. The Mets’ moneyline opened at -115 and has been bet up to -125, a 10-cent move reflecting money coming in on the home team.

The total has also climbed a half-run from 9.0 to 9.5, with the juice flipping from the over to the under. This suggests early money pounded the over, likely due to Stroman’s 8.16 ERA and a forecast favorable to hitters. This movement on the total is supported by the MLB public betting splits, which show heavy volume on the over (72% of O/U handle as of 11:24 am ET).

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Injury Reports for July 4, 2025

New York Mets

New York Yankees

New York Yankees History vs Justin Hagenman

There is no prior MLB history between Justin Hagenman and the current New York Yankees lineup. Hagenman, a right-hander relying on a fastball-slider combination, has excelled at inducing ground balls in his limited appearances. His primary challenge will be navigating the Yankees’ right-handed power bats, namely Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. If he can keep the ball down and live on the corners, he can neutralize their biggest strength. Left-handed hitters like Cody Bellinger could present a tougher matchup if Hagenman’s changeup isn’t effective.

New York Mets History vs Marcus Stroman

There is no significant MLB history between Marcus Stroman and the current Mets hitters. However, Stroman’s history at Citi Field is a major storyline; he carries a career ERA over 4.50 in Queens. As a sinkerball pitcher, he is vulnerable when his command falters and the ball stays up in the zone. This plays directly into the hands of Mets hitters like switch-hitting Francisco Lindor and righty Pete Alonso, who have shown the ability to punish mistakes. Lefty bats like Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil should also find favorable matchups, as Stroman has been susceptible to left-handed power this season.

Key Mets vs Yankees Batter Props

The shortest home run odds belong to Aaron Judge, the massive favorite in the AL MVP odds, at just +193. Pete Alonso has the shortest odds among Mets players at +317. Alonso’s total-bases prop at 1.5 (+102) offers good value against a pitcher who struggles with right-handed power.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks & Prediction

The core of this handicap lies on the pitcher’s mound, where the struggles of Marcus Stroman are too big to ignore. Hagenman has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets in his first six innings of big-league action, posting a 1.50 ERA and demonstrating an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Against a Yankees lineup built on power, that groundball-inducing style is a perfect antidote. Stroman, on the other hand, has been a liability. His 8.16 ERA is alarming, and his career struggles at Citi Field are well-documented. He’s been prone to the long ball and has had difficulty pitching deep into games, which will tax an already-thin Yankees bullpen.

Beyond the starters, the Mets hold several key advantages. They are an astounding 31-13 (.705) at home this season and have gotten the better of this rivalry recently, going 5-2 in their last seven games against their cross-town rivals. Several other betting trends point to a Mets win and a high-scoring game. The Mets are 7-1 (.875) in their last eight games at home following a win, and the over has hit in eight of their last ten games as a favorite. The Yankees have been dreadful as underdogs, going just 1-4 on the season and 1-6 on the road after a loss in their last seven such games.

NYM vs NYY Picks:

• New York Mets Moneyline (-125)
• Over 9.5 Runs (+100)
• Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-154)
• Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102)