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Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Starting Pitchers for Sunday Night Baseball (June 16)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 16, 2024 · 7:38 AM PDT

New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe sliding into third as Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers tries to tag him out
Jun 14, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe (11) steals third base against Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) during the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Yankees finish their series with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball
  • After splitting the first two games, the Yankees are favored in the series finale
  • Get the Yankees vs Red Sox predictions, odds, and starting pitcher stats for June 16

The MLB-leading New York Yankees (50-23, 28-13 away) look to build on their lead atop the AL East on Sunday Night Baseball when they visit the Boston Red Sox (36-35, 17-20 home) at Fenway Park in the finale of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET on ESPN. The pitching matchup sees Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Yankees opposite Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox.

After splitting the first two games of the series (8-1 Yankees win on Friday followed by an 8-4 Red Sox win on Saturday), New York is listed as a slight -135 favorite to take the rubber match of the three-game set.

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction (Sunday, June 16)

  • Yankees moneyline (-135)
  • First 5 innings under 3.5 runs (+165)

Crawford had a phenomenal start to the season for the Red Sox, posting a 2.17 ERA through his first ten starts of the year. But the 28-year-old righty has been on a marked decline since. He’s allowed 17 earned runs over his last four starts with a 1.29 WHIP and five home runs allowed in that span. His ERA has increased to 3.09, while his xERA has gone even higher (3.82).

The third-year big-leaguer still has excellent numbers against the Yankees, though. In 46 total at-bats, the New York hitters are slashing just .130/.216/.217 with one home run (Aaron Judge) and one double (Gleyber Torres). In two starts against the Pinstripes last year, he allowed just two runs over 10.1 innings of work.

But Stroman also has tremendous stats against the lineup he’ll be facing today. In 45 ABs, the Boston hitters have a .133 average and miniscule .382 OPS against the 33-year-old righty with no home runs and two doubles (Bobby Dalbec, Tyler O’Neill). Stroman made just one start against the Red Sox last season, pitching a six-inning gem, allowing one run on three hits and a walk.  His most-recent start this season was a 5.2-inning shutout against the Royals, though he did allow four hits and three walks.

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Stroman’s ERA for the season is an excellent 2.82, but there is a massive discrepancy in his actual ERA and his xERA (4.47).  Never known as a strikeout pitcher, his K% has dropped to 17.4%, his lowest mark since 2018 and the second-lowest of his career.

But given the way Stroman has performed against this particular set of hitters over his career, I expect another effective performance from the Yankee starter on Sunday. The same goes for Crawford, which is why I’m backing a low first-half under at significant plus-money.

If this turns into a battle of bullpens, the Pinstripes will have a significant edge. New York’s relievers are third in the MLB in ERA (3.56) while Boston’s are down in 21st with an inflated 4.39 ERA.  The Red Sox’s xFIP is slightly better (16th at 4.39) but that still pales in comparison to the Yankees’ (fourth at 4.02).

Marcus Stroman vs Kutter Crawford

Stroman
VS
Crawford
6-2 Record 2-6
2.82 ERA 3.09
4.47 xERA 3.82
1.24 WHIP 1.18
17.4% K% 23.4%

 

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Yankees (Stroman) -135 -1.5 (+114) O 9 (-108)
Red Sox (Crawford) +114 +1.5 (-135) U 9 (-112)

There is some variation in the Yankees vs Red Sox odds across sportsbooks. The best price on a New York win is -135 at DraftKings (which is where the odds in the table are from) while the best price on a Boston victory is +116 at FanDuel. Bettors looking to wager on the under can get it at -110 at FanDuel while anyone backing the over should take the -105 number available at BetMGM.

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