Bisping vs. Gastelum: Fight Night 122 Picks

The UFC makes its Chinese debut this Saturday (November 25th) with Fight Night 122, marking a milestone event for the premier MMA promotion. However, the card itself is a bit of a mess. The headliner was originally intended to be a clash between Anderson Silva and Kevin Gastelum, but the fight was scrapped two weeks prior to the event after Silva tested positive once again.

In came Michael Bisping to save the card, stepping in on a moment’s notice and just three weeks after his last fight. The rest of the main card is lined with local fighters, offering China a chance to showcase its MMA talent.

Kevin Gastelum (-280) vs Michael Bisping (+220)

It’s not hard to see why 26-year-old Kevin Gastelum (13-3) opens as the heavy favorite. He’s young, he’s had a full camp to prepare for this fight, and he’s had four months to recover from his last loss. Contrast that to Michael Bisping (30-8), who is almost 39, took the fight on short notice, and is fighting just three weeks after losing his middleweight title to Georges St-Pierre.

After missing weight far too frequently at welterweight, Gastelum has now committed himself to the middleweight division. He kicked off his middleweight return with a win against Tim Kennedy, who returned to the cage after a two-year hiatus, and followed up with an easy win over an aging Vitor Belfort (which was later overruled after Gastelum tested positive for marijuana).

However, his run ended when he faced former middleweight champ Chris Weidman back in July. Gastelum started well, dropping Weidman in the first round and almost finishing him. But as the fight wore on, Weidman was able to capitalize on his size advantage and ultimately submitted Gastelum.

If Gastelum is going to flourish at 185 pounds, he’ll have to find a way to overcome regular height and reach disadvantages. Against almost any other middleweight, he’ll be the smaller fighter. That will certainly be the case when he takes on Bisping.

At 38 years old, Michael Bisping is aware that he only has a few fights left in him. He had his eyes set on UFC Fight Night 127, which takes place in London on March 17th, but when the opportunity to headline Fight Night 122 popped up, he pounced at the opportunity.

Having just lost a grueling fight against Georges St-Pierre earlier this month, it’s worrying to see the aging fighter stepping back into the cage so soon. With just three weeks to recover from his last fight, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Bisping at his best.

Having said that, Bisping still has a few advantages over Gastelum. He has amazing cardio, whereas the stocky Gastelum typically fades in the later rounds. In a five-round fight, Bisping’s stamina could make all the difference. He also has a significant height and reach advantage over Gastelum, which will limit Gastelum’s ability to close the distance.

There are a lot of factors working against Bisping in this match-up, but he also has a few advantages to exploit. Placing him at +220 is an insult to the former champ. Take advantage of the line and pick Bisping.

Pick: Michael Bisping (+220)

Li Jingliang (-175) vs Zak Ottow (+145)

This is a fight for the local fans. Li Jingliang (13-4), one of the top Chinese fighters in the UFC, takes on Zak Ottow (15-4) in the co-main event. Neither fighter is a known quantity in the UFC and this is their chance to make a name for themselves.

Li Jingliang’s aggressive fighting style is a joy to watch, but his exuberant approach can sometimes lead to taking unnecessary risks. He’s a solid grappler, he’s competent on his feet, and he consistently sets a high tempo. He’s also on a three-fight win streak, though all three fights were against low-level fighters on a preliminary cards.

After three split decisions in the UFC (wins over Joshua Burkman and Kiichi Kunimoto plus a loss to Sergio Moraes), Zak Ottow enters the fourth and final fight of his contract. A win will likely lead to an extension; a loss could see him cut loose. This will be his third main-card fight in the UFC and by far his biggest to date. He spent his early career as a submission specialist, but since joining the UFC, he’s chosen to spend the majority of his fights on his feet.

This is an evenly matched fight. Li Jingliang will have a nation of 1.4 billion cheering him on, but I don’t think that’s enough to place him at -175. Once again, I’m siding with the underdog. Zak Ottow at +145 is a steal.

Pick: Zak Ottow (+145)