Dana White Contender Series Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sep 9)

• Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 goes down from the UFC Apex on Tuesday, September 9
• Heavyweight sluggers Anthony Guarascio and Steven Asplund headline the night
• See all the Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 odds, picks and predictions below

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Week 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9 brings us a card full of short-notice replacements and minimal tape on Tuesday, Sept. 9. That definitely spices things up for those placing bets. When there are more unknowns, there’s often more value if you know where to look.

The main event features heavyweight bangers Anthony Guarascio and Steven Asplund, two fighters who rarely go the distance. The action kicks off from the UFC Apex on Tuesday night at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN+.

Here are the Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 odds from DraftKings, plus our predictions and picks.

Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 Odds

Odds as of September 9, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to wager on the DWCS.

Lerryan Douglas comes in as the biggest favorite at -720, while his opponent Cam Teague is the largest underdog on the card at +450. The Blair-Sanches fight is a pure pick ’em at -115 on both sides.

Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund Prediction

Anthony Guarascio (3-0, 1 NC) is known for fast starts. He’s finished all three of his wins, including a 92-second knockout of Bailey Schoenfelder in April. But Guarascio trains at home out of his garage and struggles with cardio. He’s often breathing hard after just a minute in the cage.

Steven Asplund (5-1) brings a different problem. At 6’5″, he’s the bigger man with surprising cardio for a heavyweight. He’s coming off back-to-back TKO wins in LFA, showing he can survive early storms and turn it on late. His only loss came via submission to Denzel Freeman, but he’s proven he can take punishment and keep coming.

Watch this crazy KO by Anthony Guarascio against against dwcs alum Bailey Shoenfelder. He’s the main event against Asplund can he get the KO again to punch his ticket to the ufc? #DWCSWeek5

(Source @CFFCMMA Instagram) pic.twitter.com/KWWvfSAbQe

— Cageside Mafia (@CageSideMafia) September 9, 2025

This fight is pretty straightforward. Guarascio needs to land something big early, or he could be in trouble. Asplund has shown he can handle early pressure and take control as the fight goes on. Still, Guarascio is very dangerous right from the opening bell.

With both fighters starting aggressively and Guarascio’s limited stamina, this fight likely won’t reach the halfway mark. The under is the best bet, and one of my most confident DWCS picks this week.

• Pick: Fight Under 1.5 Rounds (-270)

Lerryan Douglas vs Cam Teague Pick

Lerryan Douglas (12-5) has been on a tear since hooking up with Cub Swanson’s camp. The featherweight has rattled off four straight knockouts, including brutal finishes of Elijah Johns and Ivan Tena. He captured the LFA title in January and looks UFC-ready right now.

Cam Teague (9-1) is a volume striker who pushes forward and throws in bunches. He bounced back from his only loss, a first-round KO to Kevin Vallejos on last year’s Contender Series, with a decision win over David Zelner. The problem? Teague’s defense is rough. He eats shots, doesn’t move his head, and has been dropped multiple times.

What about this performance made the UFC think…

“Yea, we’ll give Cam Teague another shot on #DWCS”

They’re basically feeding Lerryan Douglas a UFC contract 😂

pic.twitter.com/2Bjaw4Yv6g

— Finz Chats MMA (@finz_the) September 8, 2025

Teague’s aggressive style might trouble Douglas early, since Douglas sometimes gets passive when moving backward. But once Douglas finds his timing, the fight could end quickly. Teague has been knocked out before, and Douglas has the power to do it again.

The moneyline is too expensive at -720, but I like the value on Douglas inside the distance. He’s finished his last four straight, and I’m predicting that streak turns into five tonight.

• Pick: Lerryan Douglas wins inside distance (-200)

Felipe Franco vs Freddy Vidal Prediction

This fight has been chaotic from the start. Felipe Franco (8-0) was first matched with Ivan Ganitski, then Quinton Powley, and now faces Freddy Vidal on just four days’ notice. Franco’s record looks impressive at first, but most of his opponents had losing records, and some were smaller or out-of-shape heavyweights.

Freddy Vidal (3-0) doesn’t have a much better case. He’s a part-time fighter who missed weight and has not beaten any notable opponents. His best win is over Mike Lee, and there is little footage available. What is available shows he can wrestle and chain takedowns, but he has poor defense. He was taken down and nearly submitted by Jerel Kromati.

🇧🇷 Felipe Franco looks to continue his dominant finishing streak when he faces a tough short-notice test in 🇺🇸 Freddy Vidal tomorrow night 💪🏻🔥 #DWCS @Cagesidepress pic.twitter.com/zkcTNBL4iO

— Patrick Danna (@patdannamma) September 8, 2025

Franco looks awkward when striking, but he is much more effective on the ground. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills are elite for a 205-pound fighter, which is uncommon in this division. Vidal taking this fight on short notice after missing weight is my primary concern.

It’s best to back the favorite in this one, even at a high price. Franco should be able to take the fight to the ground and secure a finish.

• Pick: Felipe Franco to win (-475)

Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches Pick

Chasen Blair (7-3) gets another shot at the Contender Series after losing to Kody Steele last fall. He bounced back with a first-round submission of Diego Visanzay in April, showing his grappling is still sharp. Blair’s striking has improved too. He was landing clean counters against Steele despite being the slower fighter.

Samuel Sanches (10-1) was a wrestler until Hugo Vargas submitted him with a heel hook in 2022. Since then, he has focused only on striking, but his striking skills are not good. He often throws punches without much purpose, and his recent win over Sergio De Jesus Santos was a close fight against a lower-level opponent.

Chasen Blair looks to turn his luck around on #DWCS when he faces Brazilian finisher Samuel Sanches tomorrow night 🙌🏼🔥 @Cagesidepress pic.twitter.com/ysLVLnUoQO

— Patrick Danna (@patdannamma) September 8, 2025

Blair’s defensive wrestling held up against Steele, a superior wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Sanches if he tries to mix things up. On the ground, Blair’s submission game is leagues ahead. Sanches showed zero awareness defending that heel hook.

The odds are even for this fight, but Blair has the advantage in style. I expect both fighters to be cautious early, so I’m betting on the fight reaching the second round.

• Pick: Fight Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)

Shanelle Dyer vs Carol Foro Prediction

This could be the best fight on the card. Shanelle Dyer (6-0) is a four-time Muay Thai world champion with technical striking that stands out big-time among DWCS fighters. She recently won a split decision over Valentina Scatizzi, where she seemed hesitant, but that is not typical for her. Before that, she scored a head-kick knockout against Mariam Torchinava.

Carol Foro (8-1) is built like a fire hydrant at 5’2″ and fights like Jessica Andrade. All pressure and power. She’s finished four of her last five, including a 90-second knockout of Sofia Esquer in March. Her only loss came via split decision to Beatriz Diniz, and she’s proven she can crack with both hands.

Dyer will try to keep the fight at kicking range, where her technical skills can shine. Foro needs to get close and make it a more physical fight. Dyer’s challenge is that Foro applies constant pressure, and Dyer has struggled when opponents close the distance.

In the Dana White Contender Series, these fighters need to bring the “wow factor” to earn a contract. Both women are aware of this, so I’m predicting a finish.

• Pick: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-140)