Dolidze vs Hernadez Prediction, Odds & Tale of the Tape – UFC Vegas 109

• Roman Dolidze faces surging contender Anthony Hernandez at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9th
• Sharp money has moved Hernandez from -300 to -330 favorite status over ranked Georgian
• Scroll down for our Dolidze vs. Hernandez prediction, betting odds, and tale of the tape breakdown

Top-10 middleweights collide as Roman Dolidze meets Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in the five-round headliner of UFC Vegas 109 at the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night

This five-round fight tops a loaded card that also features Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne and Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo, streaming live on ESPN+. The main card kicks off at 7 p.m. ET.

Dolidze vs Hernandez Prediction

The smart money’s already spoken. Hernandez opened around -300 but has been bet down to -330, showing clear confidence in the seven-fight win streak veteran. The Over 2.5 rounds at -130? Another sign that oddsmakers expect this to play out over championship distance.

Dolidze brings elite grappling credentials and knockout power at 37, but faces a 31-year-old cardio machine who has never been finished in his current win streak. Hernandez averages over six takedowns per 15 minutes and has turned into a submission machine with eight tapout victories.

Expect Hernandez to bring the pressure from the opening bell. He’ll use that relentless pace to wear down the Georgian veteran. When Dolidze tries to land his big power shots, look for Hernandez to shoot underneath and drag this fight to the mat. Those body shots and ground strikes add up fast.

The best value on the board is Hernandez by Decision at +175. The American has shown better fight IQ lately, happy to grind out wins when the finish isn’t there. Dolidze’s 33% takedown defense is a problem against a wrestler like Hernandez, and “Fluffy” should pile up enough control time to take a clear decision.

Dolidze vs Hernandez Pick:

• Hernandez by Decision (+175 at DraftKings)

Dolidze vs Hernandez Odds

Sharp bettors have moved this line from an opening of -300, showing clear confidence in the American grappling specialist.

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Odds as of August 9, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Lock in a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Dolidze vs Hernandez.

Dolidze vs Hernandez Tale of the Tape

UFC Vegas Fight Analysis

This matchup puts two completely different styles on a collision course. You’ve got a 37-year-old power striker with world-class grappling going up against a 31-year-old cardio machine who’s been finishing top guys left and right.

Roman Dolidze brings 15 wins with eight knockouts, including that wild finish over Jack Hermansson where he went from an inverted triangle to a calf slicer before landing ground strikes. The former ADCC Asia & Oceania champion combines knockout power with elite grappling, but his 33% takedown defense has been exposed by top wrestlers.

Dolidze comes in with three wins in a row, including a revenge win over Marvin Vettori and a corner stoppage of Kevin Holland because of a rib injury. At 37, his cardio in championship rounds is still a question mark, especially when he has to work off his back under constant pressure.

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (14-2-1 NC) is a new kind of middleweight. The American is six feet tall and has a gas tank that lasts for days. He puts constant pressure on his opponents with 6.27 takedowns every 15 minutes, which is the most in UFC middleweight history. He has submitted eight opponents, including Roman Kopylov with a rear-naked choke and Michel Pereira with a TKO in the fifth round.

Hernandez lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.61, outworking opponents over five rounds. His 63% striking accuracy ranks among the division’s best, and his seven-fight win streak includes victories over ranked middleweights like Brendan Allen.

That six-year age gap could matter in the championship rounds. Hernandez will push a relentless pace, mixing takedown attempts with volume striking to break down the veteran. When Dolidze loads up for power shots or submission attempts, Hernandez will counter with better conditioning and scrambling.

Dolidze has the power to end this early with dangerous submissions from any position. His counter-grappling game is elite, and he’s never been finished in the UFC. The problem? Hernandez has been unstoppable over 25 minutes, and Father Time remains undefeated at 37.

UFC Vegas 109 Fight Details + How to Watch

The event will be available through ESPN+, with fans able to tune in with a subscription.