Du Plessis vs Chimaev Prediction, Odds, Tale of the Tape – UFC 319 Main Event

• Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev challenges middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16th
• Sharp bettors have pushed Chimaev from a -245 favorite to -265 at most sportsbooks
• Scroll down for our Du Plessis vs Chimaev prediction, betting odds, and fight breakdown

Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev, the UFC’s most dangerous wrestler, finally gets his shot at the title when he takes on middleweight champion Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis in the main event of UFC 319 this Saturday at Chicago’s United Center.

This five-round championship bout headlines a loaded card, streaming live on ESPN+ pay-per-view. The main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET.

We’ve made our final Du Plessis vs Chimaev prediction, plus broken down the fight with odds and tale of the tape below.

Du Plessis vs Chimaev Prediction

The line movement already says a lot. Chimaev opened at -245, but sharp money quickly pushed him to -265. Meanwhile, the Under 2.5 rounds at -120 hints at an early finish.

The big problem is Du Plessis has a 50% takedown defense rate. That’s below average for any UFC fighter, but against someone averaging 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, that’s worrisome.

Chimaev has never been taken down in his UFC career. Not once in eight fights. Meanwhile, Du Plessis gets taken down half the time opponents try.

On the scales, Du Plessis hit 185 pounds on the nose, while Chimaev came in lighter at 183. That tells you Chimaev’s not killing himself to make weight anymore, which means better cardio and more explosive shots.

Remember, this guy finished Robert Whittaker with a face crank in just 3:34. When Chimaev gets on top, fights end quickly.

Du Plessis is dangerous everywhere and has the toughness of a true champion. He choked out Israel Adesanya and busted Sean Strickland’s nose. But in grappling exchanges, he often gives up position while scrambling—a risk against someone like Chimaev.

That’s why against Borz, it feels like a different fight entirely.

My best UFC 319 bet on the board is Chimaev by submission at +130. The -265 moneyline means betting him straight gives just a 72% implied probability. But his submission prop at 43% lines up perfectly with his most likely win condition at far better odds.

Six of Chimaev’s 14 wins have come by submission, and three were in his last five. History says if he’s on top, the tap is coming.

Du Plessis vs Chimaev Pick:

• Chimaev by Submission (+130 at DraftKings)

Du Plessis vs Chimaev Odds

Sharp action continues to back Chimaev. Most of the professional money lands on the challenger, even though casual fans like the champion.

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Odds as of August 15, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Lock in a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Du Plessis vs Chimaev.

Du Plessis vs Chimaev Tale of the Tape

UFC 319 Main Event Fight Analysis

This fight is the classic striker vs grappler clash, but in this scenario, the grappler has every edge. Chimaev lands 4.31 takedowns every 15 minutes and has never been taken down. Meanwhile, Du Plessis gets taken down about half the time his opponents try.

Du Plessis earned his title the hard way. He choked out Israel Adesanya and broke Sean Strickland’s nose in their rematch. He’s unpredictable, switching stances, throwing from odd angles, and keeping constant pressure. “Stillknocks” lands 6.12 significant strikes per minute and can fight hard for five rounds without fading.

Still, Du Plessis hasn’t faced a top wrestler since Derek Brunson. Even Kamaru Usman pointed this out.

Chimaev is pure aggression. He finished Robert Whittaker in round one, forcing the former champ to tap to a face crank that damaged his jaw. That’s six submissions in 14 fights, with an average fight time of just over six minutes.

Du Plessis edges Chimaev in strike volume (6.12 vs 5.36 per minute), but Chimaev is more accurate (59% vs 49%). He uses his striking to set up takedowns, and once he gets a grip, the fight usually ends. He averages 2.77 submission attempts per 15 minutes and dominates on the ground.

Even Israel Adesanya, who lost to Du Plessis, sees the danger. Izzy said Chimaev could “grab a hold of DDP and drag him into deep water in the first or second, and finish him.” That’s exactly what we’re betting on.

As for cardio concerns? They don’t really apply here. Chimaev slowed down at welterweight against Burns and Usman, but those cuts drained him. At middleweight, coming in two pounds under, it’s a different scenario entirely.

And with that Under 2.5 line at -120, Vegas expects this one to wrap before Round 3 anyway.

UFC 319 Fight Details + How to Watch

The title fight streams only on ESPN+ PPV, with the main card live from 10 p.m. ET.