Early UFC 319 Odds and Predictions – Chimaev vs Du Plessis Main Card

• UFC 319 goes down Saturday, August 16th from Chicago’s United Center
• Khamzat Chimaev challenges Dricus du Plessis for the middleweight title in the main event
• Check out the UFC 319 early odds and predictions below

The middleweight championship is on the line as Dricus du Plessis defends his belt against undefeated contender Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 this Saturday, August 16th. The card also features former Bellator champion Aaron Pico making his UFC debut against undefeated Lerone Murphy in what could be a featherweight title eliminator at the United Center.

Lock in your picks and catch the action on ESPN+ PPV with the early prelims kicking off at 6 pm ET. Here are the UFC 319 early odds and my predictions for the biggest fights.

UFC 319 Odds

The early UFC 319 odds have Khamzat Chimaev as a -238 favorite to dethrone Dricus du Plessis, who comes back at +195. Chimaev’s implied win percentage is 70.4%.

Odds as of August 12th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for all your MMA betting needs or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Chimaev vs Du Plessis Prediction

Khamzat Chimaev finally gets his shot at UFC gold after years of visa issues, injuries, and illness derailed his seemingly inevitable march to the title. The undefeated Chechen brings a suffocating wrestling game that’s bulldozed through everyone not named Gilbert Burns.

Dricus du Plessis keeps finding ways to win despite looking like he shouldn’t. His awkward striking angles and constant forward pressure have confounded technicians like Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker, and Israel Adesanya. The South African champ fights like he’s running on fumes but somehow maintains that frantic pace for 25 minutes.

The wrestling is where this fight gets decided. Chimaev shoots takedowns like a man possessed – he’s averaging over four per 15 minutes with a 53% success rate. More importantly, when he gets on top, fights are essentially over. His ground-and-pound is vicious, and he’s got legitimate submission skills with four rear-naked chokes in the UFC.

Du Plessis has solid takedown defense at 72%, but that number comes against lesser wrestlers. His scrambling is excellent, and he’s dangerous off his back with submissions, but Chimaev’s top control is on another level. The bigger question is Chimaev’s gas tank – this is his first five-rounder, and he’s faded badly in the third round before.

If du Plessis can survive the early storm and drag Chimaev into deep waters, his awkward striking and relentless pace could turn the tide. But I don’t see it getting there. Chimaev’s wrestling is too dominant, and his improved cardio work with Sam Calavitta should pay dividends.

Look for Chimaev to shoot early and often, eventually catching du Plessis in a rear-naked choke when the champ tries to scramble. The under 2.5 rounds at -125 offers value.

• Chimaev vs Du Plessis Early Pick: Chimaev by submission +275

Early Murphy vs Pico Prediction

Aaron Pico arrives in the UFC with massive hype as a former Olympic wrestling alternate and Bellator standout. The 28-year-old has scary power in his hands to complement his elite wrestling, but he’s making his debut after 18 months on the shelf against an undefeated opponent who’s been active and improving.

Lerone Murphy doesn’t do anything spectacular, but he does everything well. The Brit is 16-0-1 with his only blemish being a draw in his UFC debut. His striking is crisp and varied, mixing in leg kicks and body work to keep opponents guessing. Most importantly, his get-up game is elite – even when taken down, Murphy springs back to his feet in seconds.

Pico’s wrestling credentials are legit, but his tendency to load up on power shots has gotten him in trouble before. He’s been dropped multiple times when he gets reckless hunting for the knockout. Murphy’s movement and counter-striking could make Pico pay for those mistakes.

The layoff is another red flag for Pico. Ring rust is real, especially making your promotional debut against a guy who’s been consistently active and improving. Murphy’s faced better competition recently and handled the pressure of being undefeated in the UFC.

I see Murphy’s experience and activity being the difference. He’ll weather the early wrestling attempts, make Pico work, and take over with volume striking as the fight wears on. Murphy by decision at plus money is the play.

• Murphy vs Pico Early Pick: Lerone Murphy ML +154

Other UFC 319 Predictions

Carlos Prates vs Geoff Neal:

Prates has been destroying everyone not named Ian Machado Garry. Neal’s only win since 2022 came when Rafael dos Anjos blew out his knee. The Brazilian’s pressure and power should overwhelm Neal’s deteriorating chin. Prates is hunting for a highlight-reel finish.

• Pick: Prates by KO/TKO -110

Michael Page vs Jared Cannonier:

“MVP” should be able to dance circles around the 41-year-old Cannonier. The karate stylist’s movement and length will frustrate Cannonier, who lacks the foot speed to cut off the cage effectively anymore. This shapes up as a point-fighting clinic from Page.

• Pick: Page by decision +105

Kai Asakura vs Tim Elliott:

Asakura’s precision striking and defensive wrestling should keep this fight where he wants it. Elliott is 38 and coming off a brutal weight cut. Look for Asakura to time one of his signature counter knees when Elliott shoots desperately for takedowns.

• Pick: Asakura by KO/TKO +125

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Gerald Meerschaert:

This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup where the grappler has all the value. Oleksiejczuk has been submitted in two of his last four fights by lesser grapplers than “GM3.” Meerschaert has 12 submission wins in the UFC. When Oleksiejczuk rushes in after hurting him, the choke will be waiting.

• Pick: Meerschaert by submission +450

Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose:

Barboza’s return to lightweight should rejuvenate his power. Klose leaves his chin high during exchanges and has been hurt before. The Brazilian’s leg kicks and body shots will slow Klose down before a head kick finds the mark.

• Pick: Barboza ML -148