Early UFC 323 Predictions & Odds: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Picks

• UFC 323 closes out the year at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 6th
• Merab Dvalishvili puts his bantamweight title on the line in a rematch against Petr Yan in the main event
• Check out the early UFC 323 predictions and odds below

---

The UFC wraps up its 2025 pay-per-view slate with a double title fight card at UFC 323. Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili looks for his fourth title defense of the year against Petr Yan in a rematch of their 2023 clash.

The co-main event features flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defending against 24-year-old rising star Joshua Van at the T-Mobile Arena this Saturday, December 6th.

The card kicks off with prelims at 6 pm ET on ESPN+ PPV. Check out my early UFC 323 odds breakdown and predictions for the top matchups.

UFC 323 Odds

The early UFC 323 odds have Merab Dvalishvili as a massive -410 favorite to retain his bantamweight title over Petr Yan, who comes back at +320.

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja is -250 to defend his flyweight crown against Joshua Van at +200.

Odds as of December 3rd, at Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 323 on Saturday.

Early Merab vs Yan 2 Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili is on a 14-fight winning streak and aims to make history with his fourth title defense in 2025. A win here could lock up Fighter of the Year. Petr Yan isn’t here to be a stepping stone, though. The former champion has rattled off three straight wins since their first meeting.

Here’s the problem for Yan: nothing’s changed. The first fight was a 50-45 beatdown where “The Machine” set the record for takedown attempts (49) and landed 11 takedowns. Yan’s 85% takedown defense looks nice against other guys, but Merab isn’t other guys.

Yan’s path to victory requires outpointing Merab on the feet using his world-class boxing. But you can’t outpoint a guy who never stops shooting. Merab’s cardio is unmatched. The man competes at 110% output for ten rounds, let alone five.

The stylistic issue is that Yan’s strengths get completely neutralized. He’s a builder who breaks opponents down over rounds with body work and stance switches. Against Merab, you’re immediately forced into his game from the opening bell. And unlike O’Malley or Sandhagen, Yan doesn’t have one-punch power to threaten a knockout.

I’m expecting another grinding decision where Merab controls the pace, racks up takedowns, and batters Yan with relentless pressure. The 4.5 over is the play here. Both guys are too durable for a finish.

• Merab vs Yan Early Pick: Fight Goes Distance / Over 4.5 Rounds

Early Pantoja vs Van Prediction

Alexandre Pantoja might be the most underappreciated champion on the roster. The 35-year-old Brazilian has been cleaning out the flyweight division for years, racking up a 30-5 record with eight wins by knockout and twelve by submission.

Now he faces the unknown in Joshua Van. At 24 years old, “The Fearless” turned pro in 2021 and has won five straight. He lands a ridiculous 8.86 significant strikes per minute and showed elite cardio against Brandon Royval, landing 204 significant strikes in that war.

The issue for Van: he’s never faced a grappler of Pantoja’s caliber. Pantoja has been taking elite flyweights to the mat and finishing them for a decade. Van’s pull-counter style, where he leans back and counters, actually invites Pantoja’s frantic double-legs under the strikes.

Van has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing shots from Bruno Silva, Cody Durden, and Edgar Chairez. But those guys aren’t Pantoja. Once the champion gets his hands locked and finds the back, it’s usually over.

If Van can keep this standing for five rounds and outbox Pantoja with volume, he’s got a shot. But I believe Pantoja will force the fight to the mat, take the back, and apply the rear-naked choke in rounds one or two.

• Pantoja vs Van Early Pick: Alexandre Pantoja ITD -150

Other Early UFC 323 Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira:

Taira smothers people with how quickly he gets to the back. He’s only 25, but he sticks to opponents whether they’re upright or on the mat and barely has to work to keep the position. Over three rounds, a single drawn-out back control can swing the whole frame.

Moreno has the edge on the feet, but his defensive grappling has been a weakness. He lost his belt when Pantoja backpacked him. I think Taira’s simple game of single shots, calf kicks, and straight punches to set up the takedown should be enough to grind out a close decision.

• Early Pick: Tatsuro Taira -125

Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott:

This is Cejudo’s retirement fight at 38. The Olympic gold medalist has looked rough lately, landing just one of seven takedowns against Merab and getting stuffed by Song Yadong.

The narrative is that Cejudo can wrestle his way to a decision like Barcelos did against Talbott. But when has Cejudo actually done that? He struck with Moraes, Cruz, Aljamain, and Yadong. He doesn’t spam takedowns anymore.

Talbott showed dramatically improved takedown defense against Felipe Lima after the Barcelos loss. At 27 with a six-inch reach advantage, I expect him to piece up the smaller, older Cejudo on the feet.

• Early Pick: Payton Talbott -275

Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov:

The odds feel disrespectful to Jan. Yes, he’s 42 and hasn’t won since 2022, but his losses came to Alex Pereira and in razor-close fights against elite competition. He went competitive with Pereira and arguably could have won that fight with more ground-and-pound in round three.

Guskov is on a four-fight finishing streak, but he’s yet to fight a ranked opponent outside of Volkan Oezdemir, who beat him in his UFC debut. His hands-down style and looping punches work against lesser competition but not against Jan’s technical pocket defense and leg kicks.

• Early Pick: Jan Blachowicz -130

Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres:

Torres is a dangerous striker from Chihuahua who wants to take your head off. Dawson is an ATT-trained wrestling savant. Classic styles clash.

The concern with Dawson is his chin. Bobby Green flatlined him with a straight punch. But Torres has never left round one in the UFC and has been submitted twice regionally. If Dawson survives the initial storm, his grappling should take over. I’m expecting violence either way.

• Early Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds -136

Jalin Turner vs Edson Barboza:

This shouldn’t be competitive. Barboza is 40, gets dropped in basically every fight now, and is visibly worn from years of damage. Turner brings youth, size, reach, and a 100% finish rate. Turner’s straight punches down the middle against a guy who can’t take shots anymore? I think this ends early.

• Early Pick: Jalin Turner ITD

Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan:

McKinney in round one is a different fighter. Explosive speed, quick-twitch power, and now mixing in grappling after getting knocked out by Bonfim and Ismagulov. Duncan gets battered early in every fight and relies on toughness and comebacks. Against McKinney’s speed? I don’t like his chances.

This fight is a two-round maximum. Either McKinney wins in round one or Duncan survives and turns it around.

• Early Pick: Terrance McKinney +130

Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva:

Barber’s physicality, clinch work, and proven takedown defense give her clear advantages. Silva has just 11% takedown defense, which is a massive liability. I’m expecting Barber to cage her, throw elbows, and grind out a clear decision.

• Early Pick: Maycee Barber -190