Final UFC 318 Predictions & Odds: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Best Bets
By Brady Trettenero in Mixed Martial Arts News
Published:
- UFC 318 takes place Saturday, July 19th, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
- Betting lines have shifted since opening, including the Holloway vs Poirier 3 main event
- Check out the latest UFC 318 odds movement and our final predictions below
The UFC 318 betting lines have been on the move all week. Since our early predictions dropped, we’ve seen Holloway’s line move from a slight underdog to favorite, while Kevin Holland has been hammered from -500 all the way to -625 against Daniel Rodriguez.
The main event between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier keeps attracting money on Holloway, with sharps seeing value in the BMF champion. Meanwhile, Michael Johnson continues to attract underdog money despite facing massive odds against Daniel Zellhuber.
Here’s what we’re seeing after tracking the odds all week.
Final UFC 318 Predictions
With fight night here and the lines settling, here are my top plays for the UFC 318 pay-per-view.
UFC 318 Best Bet: Max Holloway ML (-148 at DraftKings)
Remember when I said Holloway was value at -142? The market kept pushing, and he’s now sitting at -148. Even at this price, I’m still on board.
The line movement tells you everything you need to know. Holloway opened as the underdog, but sharp money jumped on him right away. Since opening at +110, the books have been forced to adjust, pushing Holloway to favorite status where he belongs.
Poirier’s looked rough lately. He was getting picked apart by Benoit Saint-Denis before landing a prayer of a right hook, and his timing looked off against Islam Makhachev. Meanwhile, Holloway just delivered one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history against Justin Gaethje.
The pace should be the difference maker. Holloway lands 2.5 times more strikes per minute than he absorbs, while Poirier’s output has noticeably dipped. Once Holloway finds his rhythm in rounds two and three, the volume will become overwhelming.
UFC 318 Best Bet: Kevin Holland via Decision (+230 at Caesars)
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We liked Holland from the start, but his moneyline has gone crazy, jumping from -500 to -625. That’s way too much juice to lay, but Holland via decision at +280 is where the value lives.
Holland’s been knocking guys out left and right, but Rodriguez is tough as nails and has only been finished once in the UFC. Plus, Holland’s fighting smarter at welterweight these days, happy to rack up rounds rather than force finishes.
The seven-inch reach advantage should be the deciding factor. Holland can pick Rodriguez apart from range while avoiding the pocket exchanges where D-Rod does his best work. Rodriguez’s age and declining speed were evident in his last fight, and Holland should cruise to a clear decision in the 30-27 range.
Other UFC 318 Main Card Final Predictions & Best Bets:
- Paulo Costa (+180) is worth a shot after tightening from +195. Kopylov’s never faced anyone who brings the heat like Costa.
- Dan Ige (-218) is still the right side, even with some Pitbull support. The former Bellator champ got schooled by Yair, and Father Time is undefeated.
- Daniel Zellhuber inside distance (-120) became playable once the public started throwing money at 39-year-old Michael Johnson.
- Brendan Allen (-205) should grind out Vettori, whose price jumped from +164 as bettors remember his recent losses.
The biggest swing came in the prelims, where Vinicius Oliveira dropped from -155 to -148 against Kyler Phillips. Smart money spotted Phillips as a live dog after his tight loss to Rob Font, though Oliveira’s pressure should still win out.
Updated UFC 318 Odds
Odds as of July 19th, 2025 at DraftKings. Lock in your UFC 318 bets with a DraftKings promo code.
The biggest beating happened in the Zellhuber-Johnson fight, where Johnson’s price got destroyed. Opening at +410, casual money has pushed him all the way to +550 as bettors figured out the huge age and speed difference.
The main event movement backs up our early call on Holloway. Even though Poirier’s 2-0 against him, the market clearly likes Holloway’s recent form better than Poirier’s fading speed. The BMF champ went from dog to favorite, and the line might climb even more by late Saturday night.
The craziest move? Kevin Holland’s line against Daniel Rodriguez shot through the roof. Opening at -500 was already steep, but -625 is just silly. Holland should win, but laying that price straight up is lighting money on fire. The decision prop at nearly 3-to-1 is the way to go.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
