Final UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions: Whittaker vs de Ridder Main Card

• UFC Abu Dhabi takes place Saturday, July 26th, at the Etihad Arena on Fight Island
• Betting lines have held steady since opening with minimal movement in key fights
• Check out our final UFC Abu Dhabi predictions for the main card, plus odds movement

The UFC Abu Dhabi betting lines have been surprisingly stable all week. Since our early predictions dropped, we’ve seen minimal movement in the main event between Robert Whittaker and Reinier de Ridder, while the Almabayev-Ochoa fight has flipped to become a pick ’em.

The lack of significant line movement tells us the books got these odds right from the jump. Sharp money has been quiet, with only minor adjustments across the board. Still, there’s value to be found if you know where to look.

Here are our final UFC Abu Dhabi predictions after tracking the UFC odds all week.

Final UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions

With the main card coming up and the odds settling, here are my favorite bets for UFC Abu Dhabi:

Best Bet: Reinier de Ridder ML (+130 at DraftKings)

I thought de Ridder had value in the opening odds at +130. The line hasn’t budged, and I’m still all over it.

The size difference is everything here. De Ridder stands 4 inches taller with a 4.5-inch reach advantage. We’ve seen this movie before with Whittaker. Both Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev used their size to control him. De Ridder brings the same problems, but with better submission skills.

What’s interesting is the lack of respect from the betting public. Despite de Ridder finishing all three UFC opponents, including Bo Nickal, the money hasn’t moved his way. That tells me the casual bettors are stuck on Whittaker’s name value rather than analyzing the matchup.

De Ridder’s been training at Sanford MMA, and his wrestling has improved dramatically. Once he gets on top, that giant frame turns into a submission machine. Look for him to weather Whittaker’s early storm and take over down the stretch.

Best Bet: Said Nurmagomedov to Win by Finish (+240 at DraftKings)

I still like Nurmagomedov on the moneyline at +105. The line has barely moved all week, staying right around pick ’em territory. But the real money’s on him finishing Mitchell.

Mitchell’s chin is cooked after getting knocked out twice at featherweight. Cutting weight for the first time to 135 won’t help matters. Nurmagomedov has finished three of his last four wins by guillotine or front choke, which happens to be exactly how Jean Silva caught Mitchell last time out.

The market’s giving Mitchell way too much credit for his wrestling. When he gets sloppy shooting, Nurmagomedov will snatch that neck. At +240 for the finish, this is the best value on the card.

Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction:

Shara Bullet remains a massive -650 favorite, but the smart money is on him winning by decision at +200. Since joining the UFC, he’s been far more cautious than his regional fights suggested.

Against Armen Petrosyan and Bruno Silva, Magomedov was happy to point fight instead of hunting finishes. The UFC cage seems to have made him gun-shy, especially after Michael Page exposed his defensive holes.

Barriault is tough enough to survive if Magomedov plays it safe again.

• Pick: Shara Magomedov by Decision (+200)

Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee Prediction:

Yan at -375 is still the way to go, but how you approach it really matters. McGhee is explosive early but fades after the first round. We’ve seen this story before with Yan, who typically loses round one while downloading data on his opponents.

The play is to let McGhee empty his gas tank in the opening five minutes, then hammer Yan live at a better price. Once McGhee slows down, Yan’s pressure and body work will take over. This is classic Yan territory.

• Pick: Petr Yan (-375) but bet live after Round 1

Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa Preview:

This line flipping to a pick ’em is pure recency bias. Ochoa looked great knocking out Cody Durden, but now he’s taking this fight on short notice after a quick turnaround. Meanwhile, Almabayev had a full camp and owns the wrestling advantage.

The public’s overreacting to one highlight-reel knockout. Almabayev’s chain wrestling and cardio should grind down Ochoa, especially in a fight taken on six weeks’ notice. At -110, there’s still value on the Kazakh wrestler.

• Pick: Asu Almabayev (-110)

The Krylov-Guskov line has tightened from -198 to -192, with some sharp money trickling in on the underdog. Guskov’s power and Krylov’s recent knockout loss make this interesting at +160, but I’ll pass on the variance.

Updated UFC Abu Dhabi Odds (Main Card)

Odds as of July 26th, 2025 at DraftKings. Lock in your UFC Abu Dhabi bets with a DraftKings promo code.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

The biggest story is what didn’t happen. Unlike most UFC cards, where we see major swings all week, these lines have been rock solid. The main event hasn’t moved a penny, implying both the books and sharps are comfortable with Whittaker as a slight favorite.

The one real shift came in Almabayev-Ochoa. Public money on Ochoa turned this into a true coin flip. Opening at -115, Almabayev’s now -110 with both guys carrying identical odds. The Ochoa hype train has gotten out of control after his knockout of Cody Durden.

On the favorite side, Shara Magomedov keeps getting heavier despite already being at -625. Books want you to parlay these massive favorites. But at -650, even using him in parlays offers almost no value.

Your best plays remain de Ridder at plus money and the Nurmagomedov finish prop. For more UFC Abu Dhabi action, check out the best UFC betting apps and latest fighter props.