Hooker vs Saint-Denis Prediction, Odds & Tale of the Tape for UFC 325

• Dan Hooker faces Benoit Saint-Denis in the UFC 325 co-main event on Saturday, February 1st
• Hooker is coming off a submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan just 70 days ago
• Check out our Hooker vs Saint-Denis prediction, odds and fight breakdown below

Dan Hooker returns to action on a quick turnaround when he faces Benoit Saint-Denis in the UFC 325 co-main event this Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Hooker got dominated by Arman Tsarukyan in November and is jumping right back into another tough matchup. Saint-Denis is riding a three-fight winning streak with finishes over Beneil Dariush, Mauricio Ruffy, and Matt Frevola. The Frenchman has a 100% finish rate in the UFC and could put himself in title contention with a win here.

Here’s my Hooker vs Saint-Denis prediction, odds breakdown and tale of the tape.

Hooker vs Saint-Denis Prediction

Saint-Denis should win this fight. He’s a physical mauler with relentless pressure, dangerous submissions, and the cardio to keep coming for 15 minutes. Hooker is tough, but he’s coming off a brutal loss to Arman Tsarukyan just 70 days ago and has been submitted four times in his career.

The stylistic matchup favors BSD. Hooker has 43% takedown defense and struggled badly on the ground against Tsarukyan. He landed just 42 of 124 significant strikes and got controlled for over nine minutes. Saint-Denis isn’t the same caliber of grappler as Arman, but he’s relentless and has 11 career submission wins. If he gets top position, Hooker is in trouble.

The quick turnaround is a real concern. Hooker took serious damage in that Tsarukyan fight, including broken bones around his face. Jumping into another camp against another pressure wrestler is risky. At 35 with 37 pro fights and 23 UFC bouts, his body has absorbed wars with Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and others. BSD at 30 with just 19 pro fights is significantly fresher.

Hooker’s path to victory is keeping this standing and using his reach to pick BSD apart from distance. He’s got a two-inch reach advantage and cleaner boxing. His knees up the middle are dangerous, and he has a nasty guillotine choke if BSD gets sloppy with his entries. If he can stuff takedowns early and make BSD pay, he has a shot.

But that’s a big ask. BSD’s special forces background gives him cardio and mental toughness that can drown opponents in later rounds. He walked through shots to beat Mauricio Ruffy and starched Beneil Dariush in 16 seconds. His momentum is real.

I expect BSD to pressure from the opening bell, work takedowns, and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. His 100% finish rate in the UFC isn’t a fluke.

• Hooker vs Saint-Denis Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis by Submission (+165)

Hooker vs Saint-Denis Odds

Saint-Denis is a heavy -340 favorite at DraftKings. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds with the over at -188 and under at +145. Public betting has 79% of bets on BSD, which aligns with his momentum and Hooker’s recent struggles.

Odds as of January 30th at DraftKings. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC 325 or browse UFC betting apps.

Hooker vs Saint-Denis Tale of the Tape

Hooker has the size advantage with two inches in height and reach. But BSD actually lands more significant strikes per minute at 5.07 compared to Hooker’s 4.89. The big difference is on the ground where BSD’s 11 submission wins dwarf Hooker’s seven, and Hooker’s 43% takedown defense is a major red flag.

Dan Hooker Recent Fights

• Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan – Submission (November 2025)
• Win vs Mateusz Gamrot – Decision (August 2025)
• Win vs Jalin Turner – KO/TKO (March 2025)
• Win vs Claudio Puelles – Decision (December 2024)
• Loss vs Islam Makhachev – Submission (February 2024)

Benoit Saint-Denis Recent Fights

• Win vs Beneil Dariush – KO/TKO (November 2025)
• Win vs Mauricio Ruffy – Submission (September 2025)
• Win vs Matt Frevola – KO/TKO (March 2025)
• Loss vs Dustin Poirier – KO/TKO (March 2024)
• Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan – Decision (September 2023)

How to Watch Hooker vs Saint-Denis

UFC 325 streams exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States. Sign up to watch right here. The co-main event between Hooker and Saint-Denis should start around 10:30 pm ET, though that depends on how the earlier main card fights play out.