Moreno vs Kavanagh Odds, Prediction and Tale of the Tape | UFC Mexico City Main Event

• Brandon Moreno faces Lone’er Kavanagh in the UFC Mexico City main event on Saturday, February 28th
• Kavanagh is stepping in on short notice after Asu Almabayev withdrew with a hand injury
• Check out our Moreno vs Kavanagh odds, prediction and tale of the tape below

Brandon Moreno returns home to Mexico City for the UFC Mexico City main event against Lone’er Kavanagh this Saturday at Arena CDMX.

Moreno was supposed to fight Asu Almabayev, but a hand injury in camp forced the Kazakh out. Kavanagh stepped in on about three weeks’ notice. Both guys are coming off stoppage losses, so there’s something to prove on both sides. This is Kavanagh’s first five-round fight.

The prelims start at 5 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8 pm ET also on Paramount+. Here are the Moreno vs Kavanagh odds, my UFC Mexico main event prediction and tale of the tape.

Moreno vs Kavanagh Odds

Moreno is a -220 favorite at BetMGM, which implies about a 69% chance he wins. This line opened around -175 and has moved steadily toward Moreno as fight week has gone on. The public and the sharps are on the same side here, which isn’t surprising given everything stacked against Kavanagh.

The fight to go the distance is essentially a coin flip at -120 yes and -110 no. Decision is the slight favorite at -120 for the fight outcome, but KO/TKO at +200 and submission at +300 aren’t far behind. This is a five-round fight, so there’s plenty of time for someone to get a finish.

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Odds as of February 28th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on UFC Mexico City with a BetMGM promo code or browse UFC betting apps.

Moreno vs Kavanagh Prediction

I’m surprised this line is as close as it is. Kavanagh is coming off a knockout loss to Charles Johnson, stepping in on short notice, fighting his first five-rounder, and doing it at 7,000 feet of altitude in front of a crowd that will be screaming for Moreno. That’s a lot of things working against you.

Don’t get me wrong, Kavanagh is fast. He might be the best pure striker Moreno has ever faced. He was winning the Charles Johnson fight before he got caught, and he’s got the hand speed to give anyone at flyweight trouble in the early rounds. But he was also starting to fade in that Johnson fight before the knockout. That’s a red flag heading into a 25-minute fight at elevation.

Moreno is Brandon Moreno. Former world champion, incredibly tough, and the kind of guy who’s pretty good everywhere, even if he’s not great anywhere. He’s been in five-round title fights against Pantoja, Figueiredo, and Royval. Kavanagh’s best wins are over Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa. The experience gap is enormous.

The Taira loss is the concern for Moreno. That was the first stoppage loss of his career, and it raises questions about whether the damage from all those wars is catching up. But it’s hard to compare Taira, a top-three flyweight, to Kavanagh, who just got knocked out by Charles Johnson. Those are two very different levels of competition.

Kavanagh’s best chance is to come out guns blazing and try to catch Moreno early. If he paces himself and tries to fight a smart five-round fight, he’s going to lose. He doesn’t have the cardio or the experience for that, especially at this altitude. His only path is chaos. And even then, Moreno has weathered storms against much better fighters than him.

I think Moreno eats some shots early, settles in, and takes over as the fight goes on. Kavanagh should have his moments in the first two rounds, but once the altitude kicks in and Moreno starts pushing the pace, the experience advantage will take over. I’m not laying -220 on the moneyline, though. Moreno by decision at +175 is the better play. If Moreno wins, it’s probably on points.

• Moreno vs Kavanagh Pick: Brandon Moreno by Decision (+175 at BetMGM)

Moreno vs Kavanagh Tale of the Tape

Moreno has the size advantage at 5’7″ with a 70-inch reach over Kavanagh’s 5’6″ and 67 inches. He’s also a very small flyweight, which could be an issue if Moreno decides to lean on him in the clinch or on the ground.

The striking numbers are tough to compare because of the competition difference. Moreno’s stats come from fighting the best flyweights in the world for years. Kavanagh’s come from three UFC fights against fringe roster guys. The 11 submission wins for Moreno stand out too. If this fight hits the mat, Kavanagh is in trouble.

Brandon Moreno Recent Fights

• Loss vs Tatsuro Taira – TKO (December 2025)
• Win vs Steve Erceg – Decision (July 2025)
• Win vs Amir Albazi – Decision (February 2025)
• Loss vs Brandon Royval – Split Decision (September 2024)
• Loss vs Alexandre Pantoja – Split Decision (February 2024)

Lone’er Kavanagh Recent Fights

• Loss vs Charles Johnson – KO/TKO (August 2025)
• Win vs Jose Ochoa – Decision (April 2025)
• Win vs Felipe dos Santos – Decision (November 2024)

How to Watch Moreno vs Kavanagh

UFC Mexico City streams exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States. Sign up for Paramount+ here. The main event between Moreno and Kavanagh should start around 10:30 pm ET, though that depends on how the earlier fights play out.