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Opening Odds for Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Trilogy

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Jan 24, 2021 · 12:24 PM PST

Conor McGregor stands in the cage after he was defeated by Khabib Nurmagomedov in a lightweight title mixed martial arts bout at UFC 229 in Las Vegas, Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018. (AP Photo/John Locher)
  • Dustin Poirier knocked out Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 257
  • McGregor KO’d Poirier in 2014 when they first fought
  • After UFC 257, both men called for the trilogy to be next, and sportsbooks have opened odds

Dustin Poirier shocked the world and exacted his revenge as he became the first person to knock out Conor McGregor in MMA.

In the lead-up to the bout, many pundits including myself, picked McGregor to win by knockout as his power and timing were too good. Early on, it looked like that would come true as the Irishman was landing heavy shots and even stunned Poirier. However, “The Diamond” used calf kicks to hurt the leg of McGregor. That being said, eventually, he landed some heavy shots that dropped the Irishman. Poirier proceeded to knock him out cold with a strike on the ground.

After the fight, both men called for the trilogy to happen given they are 1-1 with a knockout win apiece. Oddsmakers have now released odds on the fight, with McGregor being the favorite.

Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Trilogy Odds

Fighter Odds
Conor McGregor -130
Dustin Poirier +115

Odds as of Jan. 24

Will The Fight Happen?

UFC President Dana White and the matchmakers have always said they do not make fights on the night of the event.

With Khabib Nurmagomedov seemingly cementing his retirement plans, Poirier is in line for a vacant lightweight title shot against either Charles Oliveira or Michael Chandler. However, he didn’t seem too interested in either of them at the post-fight press conference. However, he did mention the trilogy with McGregor or a fight with Nate Diaz is what he wants. McGregor also said the trilogy should happen given they are 1-1.

Although this is all fresh, I do expect we will see Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier have their trilogy sometime in 2021.

What Will Be Different Than UFC 257?

The calf kicks.

What surprised many was the fact Dustin Poirier got the takedown. He even mentioned he felt stronger in the wrestling and clinch exchanges. Yet, the difference in this fight was the calf kicks as Poirier landed them early and often without McGregor checking them. His leg became “dead” and Poirier eventually landed the knockout blow.

Next time out, you know McGregor and his team will be drilling how to check the calf kicks. Moreover, that means Poirier will likely not be able to rely as heavily on that. To me, the trilogy is still very interesting. If the Irishman can defend the leg kicks, “The Diamond” will need to have something else in his back pocket to win.

How Will The Odds Change?

Although Dustin Poirier won the fight, it should not be surprising that Conor McGregor opened as the favorite.

With sportsbooks opening him as the favorite, it mitigates some risk for them. However, the oddsmakers know the trilogy will pretty much be a pick’em, which is how I would’ve set my line. In the trilogy, both men have paths to victory as McGregor was winning the fight until he got dropped. However, for Poirier, if the leg kicks are strong again, it should be a good night for him.

At this current line, I do expect action both ways. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see McGregor end up being around a -180 to -200 favorite by the time of the fight.

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