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PFL 3 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – Werdum vs Ferreira

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

May 3, 2021 · 7:40 AM PDT

PFL 3 odds - Fabricio Werdum vs Renan Ferreira
Fabricio Werdum battles Renan Ferreira in the main event at PFL 3 on May 6th. Can Werdum take down Ferreira as the favorite?
  • Former UFC heavyweight champ, Fabricio Werdum makes his PFL debut
  • Heavyweights and women’s lightweights compete on Thursday night
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full 2021 PFL 3 main card, below

The Professional Fighters League is set for their third event of 2021 and is back to their usual Thursday night timeslots. The promotion sees another big signing in former UFC heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum, who makes his debut against Renan Ferreira as the favorite in the PFL 3 odds. The co-main event sees reigning lightweight champ and two-time Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison battle Mariana Morais.

For those that might not know, PFL is a regular-season and playoff format like stick and ball sports. A decision win nets you three points, a first-round finish gets you six, a second-round finish gets you five, and a third-round finish nets you four. The winner also gets $1 million at the end of the year.

PFL 3 main card airs live on ESPN2 at 9 PM EST on Thursday, May 6th, 2021, from Atlantic City, New Jersey. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.

PFL 3 Odds

Fighter Odds at DraftKings
Fabricio Werdum -278
Renan Ferreira +210
Fighter Odds
Kayla Harrison -1430
Mariana Morais +700
Fighter Odds
Ali Isaev -500
Hatef Moeil +350
Fighter Odds
Genah Fabian -190
Lauran Sanchez +145

All odds as of May 3

Can Werdum Make Good On His Debut?

Fabricio Werdum fought out his UFC contract in the summer after submitting Alexander Gustafsson, and many thought he would sign with Bellator to fight Fedor Emelianenko. Yet, he signed with PFL and was one of their top free-agent signings for the 2021 season.

Werdum & Ferreira Recent Fights

Werdum
VS
Ferreira

Alexander Gustafsson, win by submission Fight 1 Jared Vanderaa, win by submission
Alexey Oleynik, loss by split decision Fight 2 Brett Martin, loss by DQ
Alexander Volkov, loss by KO Fight 3 Fabricio Almeida, win by TKO
Marcin Tybura, win by decision Fight 4 Tiago Cardoso, win by TKO

Fabricio Werdum did not look like his usual self when he returned from suspension against Oleynik as his cardio wasn’t there, but in his next fight, he looked solid, submitting Alexander Gustafsson. However, I still have questions about his chin and cardio, and this fight against Ferreira should be very interesting.

Ferreira is someone who should’ve gotten a shot on the Contender Series this year if he didn’t sign with PFL and will try and make a big statement by beating the former UFC champ.

Werdum & Ferreira Stats

Werdum
VS
Ferreira

43 Age 31
6’4″ Height 6’10”
77″ Reach 83.5″
18 Career finishes 6

Renan Ferreira is one of the biggest heavyweights and could pose some problems for Werdum. If he can use his jab to piece up the Brazilian he could very well land the KO shot, as his chin is a worry. However, he is more of a grappler and I do think this fight will hit the mat, which is where Werdum will have success.

Fabricio Werdum will be the better grappler, and after overcoming the reach disadvantage, I like him to take the fight to the ground and win by submission.

Pick: Fabricio Werdum (-278)

Does Morais Have a Shot at Pulling off the Upset?

Women’s lightweight is not a division many promotions have, PFL has it for Kayla Harrison, who will likely run through the competition again to win another $1 million.

Harrison & Morais Recent Fights

Harrison
VS
Morais

Courtney King, win by TKO Fight 1 Bianca Daimoni, win by TKO
Larissa Pacheco, win by decision Fight 2 Dayna Silva, win by split decision
Bobbi-Jo Dalziel, win by submission Fight 3 Sidy Rocha, win by decision
Morgan Frier, win by submission Fight 4 Vanessa Melo, loss by decision

Kayla Harrison, like all of her fights in PFL, will be able to roll. The two-time Olympic Judo gold medalist will have a massive size advantage over Morais, and she’ll get ahold of her early, take her down, and either ground and pound TKO her or submit her in the first round. At these odds, though, it’s unplayable, so look for a Harrison to win in round one prop.

Pick: Kayla Harrison (-1430)

Other PFL 3 Picks:

  1. Ali Isaev (-500): Isaev will be able to pick Moeil apart and eventually get him down and finish him with strikes on the ground.
  2. Genah Fabian (-190): Fabian is the better all-around fighter, however, I’d stay away from this one given Fabian is just 2-1 while Sanchez is 1-0 as a pro, so it’s hard to really know how good they are.

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