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Polaris 11 Odds & Full Preview

Polaris 11
Davies vs Alencar headlines Polaris 11 on August 31. Photo By @combat_clinic (Twitter)
  • Polaris 11 goes Saturday, August 31st at 3:00 pm EST
  • Who wins the main event and leaves with the belt? 
  • How does the welterweight title match unfurl? Who will become the inaugural heavyweight champion?

Polaris 11 hails from Bridgewater Hall in Manchester, England. The 11th installment of the submission grappling series showcases an intriguing mix of both gi and no-gi matches.

The event will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. The event is headlined by a title match between two women which is a first for Polaris. There’s also a welterweight championship match and the inaugural heavyweight title match takes place between Satoshi Ishii and Arya Esfandmaz.

Davies vs Alencar Odds

Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Ffion Davies -125
Talita Alencar -105

*All odds taken 08/28/19

Alencar and Davies are quite familiar with one another. The two met in a hotly contested EBI matchup with Alencar finishing Davies with a choke. Ffion Davies has a chance at redemption here and is the defending champion looking to maintain the momentum from capturing the featherweight title in March.

A lot has changed since their initial bout and now the rematch occurs with Davies going 2-0 and owning a Polaris title whereas Alencar, who is up 1-0 in the series, is making her Polaris debut.

The fact she’s debuting under the banner and also Alencar’s hiatus from surgery are compelling factors in this bout. The relative inactivity of Alencar compared to Davies’ frequency of performing is an intriguing talking point for the match. Ffion Davies has the size advantage and an edge in strength whereas Alencar will look to utilize a more speedy intensive approach.

Davies vs Alencar Tale of the Tape


Armbar Favorite position/ technique Well rounded overall
BJJ Black belt Belt Ranking BJJ Black belt
Mitsuyo Maeda > Carlos Gracie Sr. > Helio Gracie > Royler Gracie >
Saulo Ribeiro > (Alexandre Ribeiro >) Darragh O’Conaill
Lineage M. Maeda > L. França > O. Fadda > Monir Salomão > Julio César > Theodoro Canal >
2018 IBJJF No-Gi Championship, CBJJ Brazilian National Champion, IBJJF European Open Champion Accolades IBJJF World Champion (2017), UAEJJF Grand Slam Abu Dhabi Champion (2017),
IBJJF Pan American Champion (2017),
UAEJJF Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion (2017), IBJJF World No-Gi Champion (2016, 2017)

The development of Davies from exuberant brown belt competing against black belts to becoming the grappler to beat at Worlds has occurred in rapid fashion. She’ll have to be on her guard considering she’s facing someone who has previously finished her. I just think it’s clear which grappler has learned and honed their skills more since that initial meeting.

Davies has gone since 6-2 since the first meeting while Alencar has gone 2-3. All factors considered I think Davies retains her belt and wins the rematch at Polaris 11.

Pick: Davies (-125)

Najmi vs Khera Odds

Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Edwin Najmi -150
Mansher Khera +120

Another title match on the card takes place in the welterweight ranks and is the co-main event. Originally Vagner Rocha was supposed to be involved but Najmi stepped up to replace him. Najmi is a dangerous counter wrestler and his lanky frame lends itself well to making calculated entries at distance. The champ Khera will look to utilize his strong wrestling to secure a takedown and work his game top position.

Khera’s finishes have predominantly come from armbars and rear-naked chokes. For Najmi, he has a diverse choking game with finishes coming from darces, rear naked chokes, and triangles.

This is Khera’s second appearance under the Polaris banner and his initial match was at Polaris 8. Khera defeated Lachlan Giles in a fiercely contested, 15-minute decision. Now Khera is back a few events later and ready to defend his belt at Polaris 11. Najmi is looking to capture Polaris gold in his debut effort too. This is Najmi’s first fight under the Polaris banner and he’s getting thrown right into the fire here.

Pick: Najmi (-150)

The rest of the card has some Easter eggs littered throughout as well. The aforementioned heavyweight title match between Ishii and Esfandmaz. Ishii is a sixth dan judo black belt and is taking on a young, hungry judoka coming off of a bow and arrow choke victory over Jamie Hughes at Polaris 9.

There are also notable MMA fans that bolster the card such as UFC veterans Chris Fishgold and Stevie Ray as well as Cage Warriors standout Paddy Pimblett. The odds for the remaining bouts can be found below.

Remaining Polaris 11 Bout Odds

Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Nick Rodriguez -250
Ben Dyson +200
Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Satoshi Ishii -120
Arya Esfandmaz -110
Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Paddy Pimblett -145
Stevie Ray +115
Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Marcos Tinoco -115
Tommy Langaker -115
Grappler Odds at MyBookie
Chris Fishgold -160
Liam Cann +130
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