Strickland vs Hernandez Prediction, Odds and Fight Preview | UFC Houston

• Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez headline UFC Houston from the Toyota Center on Saturday, February 21st
• Hernandez is a -285 favorite riding an eight-fight winning streak with 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes
• Read our Strickland vs Hernandez prediction, odds and full breakdown below

Sean Strickland hasn’t fought in over a year. Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez hasn’t lost in five. Something’s got to give tonight in Houston.

The former middleweight champion returns to the Octagon against the No. 4-ranked Hernandez in a fight that could decide the next 185-pound title challenger. The winner puts themselves right in front of Khamzat Chimaev.

Here are the Strickland vs Hernandez odds, my fight prediction, and where to watch UFC Houston on Paramount+.

Strickland vs Hernandez Odds

Hernandez opened around -245 and has been bet up to -285. The public is backing Fluffy with 69% of the handle going his way per BetMGM.

Over on the prediction markets, Hernandez sits at 69% implied probability with over $1.5 million in volume. Grab a Kalshi referral code if you want to bet the fight there. Those numbers line up almost perfectly with the traditional sportsbook odds.

The fight going to a decision is the most likely outcome at -160, which makes sense when you look at Strickland’s track record. Eight of his last nine five-round fights have gone the distance. Hernandez by decision at +125 is where the market sees this landing. Strickland by decision at +375 is his most likely path to a win.

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Odds as of February 21st at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on UFC Houston tonight with a BetMGM promo code.

Strickland vs Hernandez Prediction

Strickland being nearly a 3-to-1 underdog feels steep for a former champion, but I get why the line is where it is. His last performance against Dricus Du Plessis was flat. He lost four of five rounds and looked like a guy who couldn’t handle sustained forward pressure. That’s exactly what Hernandez brings every single fight.

Fluffy averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s an absurd number at middleweight. He’s landed 23 takedowns across his last three fights alone and leads the division in control time. He battered Michel Pereira for 4.5 rounds before finishing him, big-brothered Roman Dolidze into a fourth-round submission, and ground out a comfortable decision over Brendan Allen.

Strickland’s 76% takedown defense looks good on paper. But Du Plessis went 6-for-11 on takedowns in their first fight, dropping that number to 46% in that specific bout. The only other middleweight to spam takedowns on him was Jack Hermansson, who went 0-for-8. Hernandez is a different animal than anyone Strickland has faced in the grappling department at 185.

Strickland’s path to victory is clear enough. Keep this standing, establish the jab, use the teep kick, and outwork Hernandez in a sparring-style fight. He’s got a one-inch height and reach advantage and lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute. If he can stuff takedowns early and make Hernandez stand with him, he can win rounds.

I just don’t think Hernandez will let him. Fluffy’s cardio is elite, and he doesn’t slow down when he can’t secure early takedowns. He walks forward, throws strikes, and forces opponents to constantly defend. That constant anti-grappling is going to drain Strickland’s offense and create openings for Hernandez to land his own shots.

Strickland admitted to a tough weight cut leading up to this one, and he hasn’t fought since February 2025. Hernandez, meanwhile, has been active and looked better with each outing. The momentum, the style, and the matchup all favor Fluffy.

I think Hernandez racks up takedowns, controls position, and wins a lopsided decision. Strickland is incredibly durable and has never been submitted in 36 pro fights, so I don’t expect a finish. But I do expect Hernandez to win clearly on the scorecards.

Strickland vs Hernandez Pick:

• Anthony Hernandez by Decision (+125 at BetMGM)

Strickland vs Hernandez Tale of the Tape

These numbers look completely different depending on where this fight takes place. Strickland has the edge in volume striking with nearly 1.4 more significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also the bigger man with advantages in both height and reach, even if they’re slight.

But look at the grappling numbers. Hernandez completes takedowns at a rate almost nine times higher than Strickland’s, and his 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes dwarfs Strickland’s 0.2. That gap on the mat is what makes this fight. Whoever dictates where it takes place is going to win.

Sean Strickland Recent Fights

• Loss vs Dricus Du Plessis – Unanimous Decision (February 2025)
• Win vs Paulo Costa – Split Decision (June 2024)
• Loss vs Dricus Du Plessis – Split Decision (January 2024)
• Win vs Israel Adesanya – Unanimous Decision (September 2023)

Anthony Hernandez Recent Fights

• Win vs Roman Dolidze – Submission R4 (August 2025)
• Win vs Brendan Allen – Unanimous Decision (February 2025)
• Win vs Michel Pereira – TKO R5 (October 2024)
• Win vs Roman Kopylov – TKO (February 2024)
• Win vs Edmen Shahbazyan – Decision (May 2023)

Where to Watch UFC Houston

UFC Houston streams on Paramount+. The main event between Strickland and Hernandez should start around 10:45 pm ET, though that depends on how the earlier fights play out. Check out the best UFC betting apps for tonight’s card.