Submission Underground 16 Odds and Picks

• Chael Sonnen’s Submission Underground returns on July 12th
• Craig Jones battles Mason Fowler in the main event
• See below for the odds and a betting prediction for SUG 16

Submission Underground is back for SUG 16, which goes down on July 12th live on UFC Fight Pass at 6 pm EST. Chael Sonnen’s grappling promotion has continued to hold events at a secret location during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Sunday’s main event, arguably the best grappler competing today, Craig Jones battles Mason Fowler, who won the eight-man tournament at the last event to face Jones. The card also features UFC veteran Jake Ellenberger competing and a very intriguing match in Richie Martinez vs. Kevin Casey.

SUG 16 Odds

All odds taken July 11th.

Can Jones Continue His Dominance?

Craig Jones has been a SUG staple and one of the best grapplers in the world. The Aussie is only 28-years-old and has looked unbeatable so far. He made his Submission Underground debut at SUG 8 where he beat Dennis Hallman. He also holds wins in SUG over Gilbert Burns, who is expected to fight for the UFC’s welterweight title next time out and Anthony Rumble Johnson. Jones is currently 7-0 in SUG and has also competed in ADCC.

Mason Fowler, meanwhile, won the eight-man tournament at SUG 15 to earn the honor of competing against Craig Jones. The American is a very good grappler and has notable wins over Roberto Jimenez and Kody Steele. He’s also competed in ADCC but lost to Jones by choke in nine minutes and 28 seconds, which is a lot longer than most people last.

Jones vs Fowler

As the odds suggest, Jones should remain undefeated in SUG once again. I think the only person in the world who may be able to beat him is Gordon Ryan, who may be the best grappler. The two have competed before where it was Ryan who won.

This is a very intriguing match, as Fowler has only one loss in grappling and that is against Jones where he had some success in the match. Yet, in this one, I think Jones is just the better grappler where he will be able to get ahold of Fowler’s back and sink in another choke to remain undefeated in SUG and await his next competitor.

But, at -700 it is definitely hard to lay that price, so right now, I’d say you have to pass on betting this match, although I think Jones will win, the risk-reward just isn’t there.

Pick: Craig Jones (-700)

Other SUG 16 Picks

• Jake Ellenberger (+110):  This is a very even match, where I think Ellenberger’s experience will be the difference maker to either get a late submission or the fastest escape time.
• Richie Martinez (-140): Martinez was upset last time out by Austin Vanderford but I don’t see that happening here as I believe he’ll submit Kevin Casey.
• Hunter Colvin (-180): Colvin is the better grappler, and I think he should be a bigger favorite. I believe he’ll submit Varela fairly early into their match.