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UFC 262 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Oliveira vs Chandler

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

May 13, 2021 · 2:22 PM PDT

UFC 262 Odds and Picks - Michael Chandler vs Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira fight for the lightweight belt in the main event at UFC 262 this Saturday.
  • The vacant lightweight is up for grabs in Houston, Texas for UFC 262
  • Michael Chandler looks to join rare company of being a UFC and Bellator champion
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC 262 main card, below

The UFC is back on the road in front of a full capacity crowd in Houston, Texas for UFC 262 where the vacant lightweight is up for grabs. In the main event of the card, perennial contender Charles Oliveira finally gets his first crack at UFC gold against former Bellator champ Michael Chandler who’s coming off a successful UFC debut.

The co-main event sees fan-favorite Tony Ferguson look to snap his losing skid against rising contender Beneil Dariush at lightweight. UFC 262 main card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 PM EST. We’ve already broken down the early odds, but the table below shows updated odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.

UFC 262 Odds

Fighter Odds at DraftKings
Charles Oliveira -134
Michael Chandler +110
Fighter Odds
Tony Ferguson +135
Beneil Dariush -165
Fighter Odds
Matt Schnell -159
Rogerio Bontorin +130
Fighter Odds
Katlyn Chookagian -139
Viviane Araujo +115
Fighter Odds
Shane Burgos -141
Edson Barboza +114

All odds as of May 13

Who Wins UFC Gold?

The odds between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira have been the same all week, which is a surprise as I thought there would be action on whoever was the underdog as this is a very close and competitive fight.

I’m surprised Chandler is the underdog as he will be the one who will be able to dictate the pace. Although he might not be known to the casual viewer given he spent years in Bellator, he has been one of the best lightweights in the UFC and proved that in January as he scored a first-round TKO over Dan Hooker.

Oliveira is someone that has quit in fights in the past, which is a major concern for me. Although he is on an eight-fight winning streak, the level of competition has not been the best except for his last two fights. However, in this fight against Chandler, it is a tough stylistic matchup for him.

Oliveira & Chandler Stats

31 Age 35
5’10” Height 5’8″
74″ Reach 71.5″
16 UFC finishes 2

In the fight, Chandler is the better striker, and the better wrestler, while Oliveira is no doubt the better pure grappler. However, he doesn’t have the best takedowns and Chandler should be able to stuff them and keep it standing where he can have success.

Although Chandler is smaller, that is something he overcomes in the majority of his fights. Last time out against Dan Hooker, he used his pressure and push kicks to find the range and then threatened a takedown which brought the hands down and landed the big shot. If Chandler is the one dictating the pace and keeping it standing, I think it will be only a matter of time until he finds the KO shot and becomes the new UFC lightweight champion.

Pick: Michael Chandler (+110)

Will Ferguson Snap His Losing Skid?

Tony Ferguson had a terrible 2020 as he was supposed to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov for the belt in April. Unfortunately, due to the pandemic that changed and he ended up facing Justin Gaethje in May for the interim title and suffered a brutal TKO beatdown in the fifth and then was dominated by Oliveira in December. Beneil Dariush, meanwhile, has a chance to become an elite lightweight fighter on Saturday night.

Ferguson & Dariush Recent Fights

Charles Oliveira, loss by decision Fight 1 Diego Ferreira, win by split decision
Justin Gaethje, loss by TKO (interim title fight) Fight 2 Scott Holtzman, win by KO
Donald Cerrone, win by TKO Fight 3 Drakkar Klose, win by KO
Anthony Pettis, win by TKO Fight 4 Frank Camacho, win by submission

This fight will be really telling to see if Tony Ferguson’s past two losses were just to two of the best or if he truly is no longer the elite fighter he was.

Both Ferguson and Dariush are very good grapplers, with Dariush likely having a power advantage, but Ferguson has a unique striking and could very well just out volume Dariush.

Ultimately, I think Dariush can mix in the grappling and striking and win a decision. Ferguson is super durable, and I’m not sure Dariush will be able to find the finish at UFC 262, but to me, this fight could look very similar to Ferguson-Oliveira in December.

Pick: Beneil Dariush (-165)

Other UFC 262 Picks:

  1. Matt Schnell (-159): Schnell should be able to piece up Bontorin on the feet and be able to stuff the takedowns and either win a decision or late stoppage as Bontorin usually gasses out.
  2. Katlyn Chookagian (-139): Chookagian will likely be able to stuff the takedowns and just out volume Aruajo to earn a decision win.
  3. Edson Barboza (+114): Burgos gets hit too much for my liking, and Barboza may only need to land one. This fight could come down to who lands first, but I think Barboza is the better striker and will find the KO shot.

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