UFC 281 Odds, Picks & Predictions

• Israel Adesanya puts his UFC middleweight belt on the line against old foe Alex Pereira in the UFC 281
• Carla Esparza defends her UFC women’s strawweight belt against Zhang Weili in the co-main event
• Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night

Two UFC championship belts will be on the line on Saturday when the octagon action heats up at UFC 281. Israel Adesanya will be looking to successfully defend his UFC middleweight title for a sixth time when he tangles with No. 4 contender Alex Pereira in the main event. The ladies capture the spotlight in the co-main event of the evening, as recently crowned champion Carla Esparza defends her UFC women’s strawweight crown against No. 2 contender Zhang Weili.

Prelim action at UFC 281 gets underway at 6:00pm ET on Saturday evening at Madison Square Garden in New York. The main card follows at 10:00pm ET, with all the action available on Pay-per-View.

UFC 281 Odds

Odds at BetMGM as of November 8, 2022.

Israel Adesanya has emerged as a -190 favorite in the UFC 281 odds, while Alex Pereira lags at +155.  Carla Esparza is pegged as a distant +300 longshot to defend her title, while Zhang Weili has rocketed to -400 chalk.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don't Win!

21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US). New customers only, subject to eligibility requirements. Not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

Adesanya vs Pereira Odds & Prediction

Israel Adesanya is undefeated fighting as a middleweight going into Saturday’s action, and has seen successfully defended his UFC crown with unanimous decision wins. Adesanya has already fought on two occasions this year, with is most recent octagon appearance coming at UFC 276, where he outlasted Jared Cannonier.

Despite sporting a short resume of just six professional MMA fights, Alex Pereira earned a shot at the UFC middleweight title with an impressive first round knockout win over Sean Strickland at UFC 276. Overall, Pereira is undefeated in his past six fights, with three of those victories coming inside five minutes.

Adesanya vs Pereira Stats

Few fighters have dominated their division the way “The Last Stylebender” has since rising to the championship ranks. The list of fighters that Adesanya has vanquished features all the top-ranked contenders in the division, leaving Pereira as the last best hope to end his reign.

Israel Adesanya is coming off of a unanimous decision win against Jared Cannonier.

Aside from round 3, Adesanya won every round on the Verdict Scorecard.#UFC281 pic.twitter.com/TtIOjDB4Bh

— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) November 6, 2022

A professional kickboxer before making the move full-time to MMA, Adesanya is effective at wearing down opponents both physically and psychologically over the course of a fight. He is also light on his feet in the octagon, and skilled at staying out of reach of hard hitting opponents. However, he does not pose much of a threat when the action moves to the mat, and has never taken down an opponent since joining the UFC four years ago.

Adesanya vs Pereira Recent Fights

Pereira’s punching was on full display in his crushing knockout win over Sean Strickland four months ago. The 35-year-old has averaged 6.29 significant strikes per minute through his first three UFC contests, and has outpaced his opponents by almost a 2-1 margin in significant strikes in those contests.

One year ago today,
Alex Pereira made his UFC debutpic.twitter.com/KVkovbyh8v

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) November 6, 2022

Like Adesanya, Pereira competed as a pro kickboxer before moving to MMA, earning multiple world champion belts including the Glory light heavy weight and middleweight crowns. He has also defeated Adesanya twice in kickboxing action, including a third-round KO when they last met five years ago at Glory of Heroes 7.

Pick: Pereira by KO, TKO, or DQ (+275)

Esparza vs Zhang Odds & Pick

Few fighters get a second chance to cement their position as champion. Carla Esparza is on of them. “The Cookie Monster” claimed the UFC women’s strawweight title for the second time with a split decision win in a bizarre clash with Rose Namajunas at UFC 274, and now looks to do what she couldn’t do first time around – successfully defend the belt.

Rose Namajunas ‘would love’ Carla Esparza trilogy but doesn’t want to subject fans to another ‘snoozefest’ https://t.co/3ep7hEkSUm pic.twitter.com/ovcJkGawjV

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) November 4, 2022

Esparza rides a six-fight win streak, with five of those victories coming by decision. However, she has not earned a unanimous decision win in over three years. Esparza is capable at fighting standing up or on the mat. She is among the all-time leaders in control time among women’s strawweights, and has four submission wins to her credit.

Esparza vs Zhang Recent Fights

Nothing has come easy for Zhang Weili since joining the UFC. While she needed just 42 seconds to dispose of Jessica Andrade and claim the UFC women’s strawweight crown three years ago at UFC Shenzen, she needed to go to war to successfully defend that title against Joanna Jędrzejczyk before twice losing to Thug Rose.

Zhang Weili looking absolutely frightening on the pads ahead of her fight with Carla Esparza next weekend.😳#UFC281 #UFC #MMA

pic.twitter.com/2jkpRIuIyx

— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) November 3, 2022

A Kung Fu fighter from a young age, Zhang has evolved into one of the hardest hitting women in the UFC today. In addition to averaging 5.78 significant strikes per minute, Zhang is an accomplished grappler with seven submission wins to her credit, including six inside five minutes.

Pick: Zhang by KO, TKO, or DQ (+125)

Other UFC 281 Picks

• Michael Chandler (+185): Chandler has the ability to finish opponents standing or on the mat, and matches up well with Dustin Poirier, who has three submission losses on his record
• Claudio Puelles (+135): Puelles is well poised to deepen the woes of Dan Hooker, who has lost four of five including three defeats inside five minutes
• Ryan Spann (+185): Fresh off a first-round submission win over Ion Cuțelaba just six months ago, Spann offers value against veteran Dominick Reyes, who has been ideal for 18 months.