UFC 318 Predictions & Odds: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Card Picks

• UFC 318 features Max Holloway defending his BMF title in a must-see trilogy fight against Dustin Poirier
• Poirier is the underdog and fighting for the final time in front of his home crowd at the Smoothie King Center
• Check out our UFC 318 predictions, picks and odds analysis below

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International Fight Week takes a detour from Vegas to the Big Easy this year, bringing the heat to New Orleans for UFC 318. The card delivers a main event dripping with emotion as Louisiana’s own Dustin Poirier calls it a career against Max Holloway in their trilogy bout for the BMF title this Saturday, July 19th.

The card kicks off early with prelims starting at 6:15 pm ET and the main card dropping at 10 pm ET on ESPN+ PPV.

Here are my UFC 318 predictions for the biggest fights on the card.

Holloway vs Poirier 3 Prediction

Dustin Poirier’s fighting one last time, and he picked a hell of a dance partner. The Louisiana native holds a 2-0 edge over Max Holloway, but those wins came in 2012 and 2019. That’s ancient history in MMA years.

This isn’t the same Holloway who moved up on short notice in their first meeting or the one still finding his feet at lightweight in their second bout. This is BMF Holloway, fresh off one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300.

MAX HOLLOWAY KNOCKS OUT JUSTIN GAETHJE COLD FOR THE BMF TITLE

pic.twitter.com/dPOjSrpyh2

— GoldBoys.com (@GoldBoysSupport) April 14, 2024

Poirier, on the other hand, is showing his miles. He got dropped and nearly finished by Benoit Saint-Denis before pulling out a comeback, then was submitted by Islam Makhachev in his latest title shot. The reflexes that once made him elite are a half-step slower. Just ask Gaethje, who caught him with that head kick in 2023.

Tale of the Tape

The numbers speak for themselves. Holloway’s volume and pace are built for five-round wars. He lands 2.5 times more strikes per minute than he absorbs, while Poirier’s output has dipped in recent years. Factor in that retirement fights historically favor the hungrier fighter, and Holloway’s path becomes clear.

Poirier will have his moments early. He always does. But once Holloway finds his rhythm and starts touching him with jabs and body kicks, the pace will become overwhelming. Look for Holloway to take over in rounds three through five.

• Holloway vs Poirier Pick: Max Holloway (-142)

Allen vs Vettori Prediction

Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori have history. They literally fought in a casino lobby. Now they’ll settle it properly in the cage, and Allen’s evolution since then gives him the clear edge.

Footage just dropped of the Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori brawl 😳😳

🎥@Philly182 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/rRS6OKB8nD

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) August 17, 2024

Vettori hasn’t finished anyone since 2016. Think about that. Eight straight fights without a stoppage, and he’s lost three of his last five. The Italian’s become predictable: plodding forward with his southpaw stance, eating shots to land one big counter that never comes.

Allen’s fresher, more dynamic, and actually willing to mix things up. He’ll use his wrestling to control Vettori against the fence, land clean shots at range, and pile up the minutes. Vettori’s granite chin means this fight will go the distance, but Allen should win at least two rounds clearly.

• Allen vs Vettori Pick: Brendan Allen by Decision (+100)

Other UFC 318 Predictions

Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull:

Father Time remains undefeated. Pitbull looked every bit of 38 years old in his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez, getting picked apart at range.

Ige isn’t Yair, but he’s younger, faster, and has a six-inch reach advantage. Pitbull’s power is real, but Ige’s volume and movement should carry him to a clear decision.

• Pick: Dan Ige (-218)

Roman Kopylov vs Paulo Costa:

This is a classic case of betting on consistency over chaos. Kopylov’s won six of seven and fights with discipline. Costa’s 1-4 in his last five and shows up with a different gameplan every time, none of them effective.

Kopylov’s cleaner striking and better cardio should control this fight from bell to bell.

• Pick: Roman Kopylov (-238)

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez:

Holland’s found new life at welterweight, and Rodriguez is the perfect matchup to keep his momentum going. Seven-inch reach advantage, better cardio, superior grappling.

Kevin Holland is really good when he decides to be good pic.twitter.com/SmIi03A2lK

— MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) July 14, 2025

Holland has every tool to dominate this fight. Rodriguez is tough but limited, and age is catching up. Holland should cruise here.

• Pick: Kevin Holland -500 (Parlay piece only)

Vinicius Oliveira vs Kyler Phillips:

Oliveira’s the real deal. He gutted through a painful injury to beat Said Nurmagomedov and called out Umar afterward. That’s championship mentality.

Phillips got exposed by Rob Font’s volume, and Oliveira brings even more pressure. The Brazilian’s power, pace, and grappling are all superior.

• Pick: Vinicius Oliveira (-148)

Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber:

Father Time comes for everyone, and Michael Johnson is 39 years old and facing a hungry 26-year-old prospect.

Zellhuber’s length, volume, and freshness should overwhelm Johnson, who needed everything he had to beat regional-level competition recently. This could get ugly fast.

• Pick: Daniel Zellhuber wins inside distance

Best UFC 318 Parlay Bets:

Kevin Holland + Dan Ige (-133)

Both fighters match up perfectly with their opponents’ weaknesses. Holland’s reach and versatility against Rodriguez’s plodding style, and Ige’s youth and volume against an aging Pitbull. This two-fighter parlay offers solid value without excessive risk.

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UFC 318 Odds

Odds as of July 16th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 318 on Saturday.

The early UFC 318 betting lines show value in the main event, with Holloway at only -142 despite his recent momentum. That price is a gift for bettors who watched the Hawaiian sleep Gaethje with seconds left at UFC 300. The BMF champ opened as the underdog, but sharp money has steadily moved the line.

In the co-main, Kopylov opened around -200 and has been bet up to -238 as the public realizes Costa’s inconsistency. The rest of the card features mostly heavy favorites, making parlays tricky. Your best value plays are Holloway straight up and Allen by decision at even money.