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UFC Fight Island 2: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

Deiveson Figueiredo, Joseph Benavidez
On Saturday, July 18, the UFC will hold its third of four events on Fight Island in the month of July where the vacant flyweight title is on the line.
  • The vacant flyweight title is on the line
  • Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez have an immediate rematch in the main event
  • See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Fight Island 1 main card below

The UFC will hold its third event on Fight Island in just eight days. The promotion held the stacked UFC 251 on July 11 and followed that up with a Fight Night event on July 15. Now, on Saturday, July 18, they will hold its third of four events on Fight Island in the month of July where the vacant flyweight title is on the line.

In the main event of UFC Fight Island 2, Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez will have their immediate rematch for the vacant flyweight title. The co-main event sees top-10 middleweights collide as Kelvin Gastelum battles Jack Hermansson.

The UFC Fight Island 2 main card airs live this Saturday, July 18 at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN. The table below shows odds for the entire main card at two different sportsbooks, followed by best bets for the event.

UFC Fight Island 2 Odds

Fighter Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Deiveson Figueiredo -205 -200
Joseph Benavidez +165 +170
Fighter Odds Odds
Kelvin Gastelum -120 -115
Jack Hermansson -110 -105
Fighter Odds Odds
Marc Diakiese -170 -157
Rafael Fiziev +140 +137
Fighter Odds Odds
Ariane Lipski -130 -130
Luana Carolina +100 +110
Fighter Odds Odds
Alexandre Pantoja -205 -200
Askar Askarov +165 +170

All odds taken July 15

Who Will Leave Fight Island With the Belt?

Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1) is riding a three-fight winning streak and is a very impressive 7-1 inside the Octagon. Last time out, he scored a second-round knockout win over Benavidez, but the Brazilian missed weight leaving the flyweight title to still be vacant. In his career, he has notable wins over Alexandre Pantoja, Tim Elliott, and John Moraga among others.

Joseph Benavidez (28-6) had his three-fight winning streak snapped last time out with the loss to Figueiredo. He is considered one of the best UFC fighters to never win the title, and it is likely this is his final shot. In UFC title fights, he is now 0-3, with two losses to Demetrious Johnson. The American does have notable wins over Henry Cejudo, Jussier Formiga, twice, Alex Perez, and Dustin Ortiz, twice.

When the first fight happened in February, Benavidez was the betting favorite and many believed his wrestling would be the difference given Formiga was able to outwrestle Figueiredo. Yet, that is far from what happened as the Brazilian even had a takedown attempt and nearly submitted Benavidez in the first round. In the second, there was a clash of heads. Almost immediately after the Brazilian scored a KO win, so the UFC decided to run it back because of that and the missed weight.

In the lead up to the fight, Figueiredo tested positive for COVID-19 before he was able to go to Abu Dhabi, but it was deemed a false positive so the fight is still on.

After watching the first fight again, I don’t see how Benavidez can win this fight. Figueiredo looked stronger, was able to stuff takedowns, and had success on the ground. On the feet, he hit a lot harder and I expect to see the Brazilian land another punch to put Benavidez down and finish the fight to become the new flyweight champion. Not only do I like the moneyline on the Brazilian, but I think it is worth looking at the fight doesn’t go the distance prop as well.

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (-200)

Figueiredo vs Benavidez Key Stats


32 Age 35
5’5″ Height 5’4″
68″ Reach 65″
5 UFC finishes 6

Who Will Snap Their Losing Streak?

Kelvin Gastelum (16-5) is quietly on a two-fight losing streak and losing three in a row in the UFC is never good for your job. Last time out, he dropped a decision to Darren Till, where he was the betting favorite. Before that, he lost by decision to Israel Adesanya for the interim middleweight title. The American has notable wins over Jacare Souza, Michael Bisping, and Tim Kennedy among others.

Jack Hermansson (20-5) suffered a second-round TKO loss to Jared Cannonier in the main event of UFC Copenhagen last September. Before that, he was on a four-fight winning streak where he beat Souza, David Branch, Gerald Meerschaert, and Thales Leites.

This is a very close fight as the odds suggest but I do favor the slight underdog in Jack Hermansson. In a three-round fight, he will be the one pushing the pace where he will be in Gastelum’s face with strikes and takedown attempts. Once he gets the fight to the ground, which I believe he will, I suspect we will see Hermansson earn another submission win.

Pick: Jack Hermansson (-105)

Other UFC Fight Island 2 Picks

  • Marc Diakiese (-157): Diakiese should be able to keep the fight standing and be able to outpoint Fiziev to win a decision.
  • Ariane Lipski (-130): Carolina hasn’t fought since May of 2019 which scares me. This fight should be a standup fight, where Lipski is the better striker and will earn a decision win.
  • Alexandre Pantoja (-200): Pantoja is on standby for the main event in case something happens, but against Askarov, he is better everywhere and I suspect he will get a decision win, or perhaps a late finish.
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