UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan: Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Highly-ranked women’s strawweights clash as Mackenzie Dern battles Yan Xiaonan in the main event at UFC Vegas 61
- The co-main event features a clash of welterweights as Randy Brown takes on Francisco Trinaldo
- Read on for all the UFC Vegas 61 odds and picks (Dern vs Yan) ahead of on Saturday night’s card at UFC Apex
The spotlight will be focused on the ladies in the main event at UFC Fight Night 211 on Saturday night, as Mackenzie Dern takes on Yan Xiaonan in a clash of highly ranked women’s strawweights. Dern aims to build on a narrow split decision win over Tecia Torres at UFC 273 that has lifted her into the No. 5 spot in the UFC women’s strawweight rankings. Conversely, Yan will be aiming to avoid dropping from No. 6 in the rankings. Yan is coming off a split-decision loss to Marina Rodriguez six months ago at UFC 272, extending her current losing streak to two fights.
Prelim action gets underway at 4:00pm ET on Saturday night at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, with all the action available on ESPN+. The main card follows on ESPN+ at 7:00pm ET.
UFC Vegas 61 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| MacKenzie Dern | -230 |
| Yan Xiaonan | +180 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Randy Brown | -305 |
| Francisco Trinaldo | +240 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Maxim Grishin | -175 |
| Philipe Lins | +137 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| John Castaneda | -186 |
| Daniel Santos | +150 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Jessica Penne | +175 |
| Tabatha Ricci | -220 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Julija Stoliarenko | -115 |
| Chelsea Chandler | -108 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Sodiq Yusuff | -910 |
| Don Shainis | +310 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Brendan Allen | +104 |
| Krzysztof Jotko | -129 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Mike Davis | -190 |
| Viacheslav Borschev | +150 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Raoni Barcelos | -235 |
| Trevin Jones | +185 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Joaquim Silva | -150 |
| Jesse Ronson | +120 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Aleksei Oleinik | +143 |
| Ilir Latifi | -180 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Randy Costa | -305 |
| Guido Cannetti | +240 |
Odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of September 28, 2022.
Dern enters Saturday’s main event as a -230 favorite with Yan coming back as a +180 underdog. The odds for the penultimate fight of the night are even more lopsided; Randy Brown is a -305 betting favorite over Francisco Trinaldo (+240).
Dern vs Yan Odds, Prediction & Best Bet
Mackenzie avoided consecutive defeats for the first time in her career with a split decision win over Tecia Torres in her first ever fight to go five full rounds. Overall, Dern has seen three of her past four fights go the distance.
Yan is currently mired in the first losing streak of her career. Her current slide comes on the heels of a six-fight win streak to start her UFC career, with each of those victories coming by decision.
Dern vs Yan Stats
| 29 | Age | 33 |
| 5′ 4″ | Height | 5′ 5″ |
| 63 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 12-2-0, (7) | Pro MMA Record (finishes) | 15-3-0, (7) |
| #5 | UFC Welterweight Ranking | #6 |
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Mackenzie Dern is also an accomplished grappler. In addition to taking home a wide array of medals during her amateur Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu career, Dern also claimed gold at the 2015 ADCC Submission Fighting World Championship.
Mackenzie Dern …#bjjgirls #bjjgirl #bjjlifestyle #bjj #grappling #wrestling #catchwrestling #mma #mmafighter #mmatraining #behemothgroundgame #matcontrol #brazilianjiujitsu #jiujitsu #jiujitsulifestyle #jiujitsu4life #10thplanetjiujitsu #JRE pic.twitter.com/yzERRIlbEW
— Nerdy BJJ Assassins (@NerdBjj) June 28, 2018
The 29-year-old has since established herself as an accomplished submission specialist, with seven of her 12 pro MMA victories coming by tap out. Dern has claimed Performance of the Night bonuses in each of her past four submission victories, with three of those wins coming inside five minutes.
Mackenzie Dern (@MackenzieDern) submits Nina Nunes in the first round. Her 7th win via submission #UFCVegas23 pic.twitter.com/GMzHgsyzye
— Tiger Driver '98 ✪ (@SPQRMMA) April 10, 2021
Striking is not Dern’s biggest strength. She has averaged just 3.16 significant strikes landed per minute since joining the UFC, and has never claimed victory by KO or TKO.
Dern vs Yan Recent Fights
| Tecia Torres (win – split decision) | Fight 1 | Marina Rodriguez (loss – split decision) |
| Marina Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) | Fight 2 | Carla Esparza (loss – TKO) |
| Nina Nunes (win – submission) | Fight 3 | Cláudia Gadelha (win – unanimous decision) |
| Virna Jandiroba (win – unanimous decision) | Fight 4 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz (win – unanimous decision) |
| Randa Markos (win – submission) | Fight 5 | Angela Hill (win – unanimous decision) |
A knockout specialist early in her career, with six of her first nine victories coming by first-round finish, Yan has evolved her game since joining the UFC, with seven of her first eight octagon appearances going a full three rounds. However, she has never seen action in championship rounds.
#UFC strawweight contender Yan Xiaonan revealed that Chinese fans are favoring Mackenzie Dern to win.
Is that surprising to you?
Full Interview https://t.co/p4IaW23jpA pic.twitter.com/dEmFVEPPqn
— The AllStar Sports (@TheAllStarSport) September 22, 2022
While Yan sits among the all-time leaders in significant strikes landed and per minute among UFC women’s strawweights, she was out-struck by a wide margin in each of her two recent losses, including a crushing second-round TKO loss to current champion Carla Esparza last year at UFC Vegas 27.
Yan Vs Esparza #UFCVegas27 pic.twitter.com/BerUL5DGay
— José Miguel Fernandes (@JMSFernandes98) May 23, 2021
Yan has also struggled on the mat against accomplished grapplers, with opponents racking up almost 15 minutes of combined control time over her past three fights.
Pick: Dern by finish (-114)
Trinaldo vs Brown Odds & Pick
Francisco Trinaldo vies for a third straight win when he battles fellow welterweight Randy brown in the UFC Vegas 61 co-main event. Trinaldo is coming off a unanimous decision win over Danny Roberts at UFC 274, and has now seen eight of his past 10 fights go the distance.
Don't blink, Francisco Trinaldo with the TKO out of nowhere! pic.twitter.com/6WkF2bs8pu
— FOX Sports: UFC (@UFCONFOX) September 23, 2018
In addition to being durable, Trinaldo has also proven his ability win standing up and on the mat. He has tallied five career wins by submission, but has not submitted an opponent since his first-round win over Mike Rio in 2013.
Trinaldo vs Brown Recent Fights
| Danny Roberts (win – unanimous decision) | Fight 1 | Khaos Williams (loss – split decision) |
| Dwight Grant (win – split decision) | Fight 2 | Jared Gooden (loss – TKO) |
| Muslim Salikhov (loss – unanimous decision) | Fight 3 | Alex Oliveira (win – submission) |
| Jai Herbert (win – TKO) | Fight 4 | Vicente Luque (loss – KO) |
| Jon Makdessi (win – unanimous decision) | Fight 5 | Warlley Alves (win – submission) |
Randy Brown possess a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and has tallied five career submission wins. His most recent win came against Alex Oliveira just 2:50 into their UFC 261 clash.
Randy Brown vs Alex Oliveira was such a great fight pic.twitter.com/jVyUmczto2
— ᴛʜᴇᴀʀᴛᴏꜰᴡᴀʀ🗿🏝 (@TheArtOfWar6) August 11, 2022
Each of Brown’s two most recent losses have come by second-round KO, to Vicente Luque and Niko Price.
Pick: Brown (-305)
Other UFC Vegas 61 Picks
- Maxim Grishin (-175): Grishin struggled to make weight and compete while fighting as a heavyweight, but was dominant while going undefeated in his past nine fights at 205 pounds.
- Trevin Jones (+185): Expect hard-hitting Jones to regularly tee off on Raoni Barcelos, who has a long history of absorbing a lot of significant strikes
- Jesse Ronson (+120): Ronson has demonstrated impressive mat skills during a pair of recent first-round submission finishes.
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Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
