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UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Mixed Martial Arts News

Updated Sep 28, 2022 · 5:55 PM PDT

Mackenzie Dern lands a punch on Tecia Torres
Mackenzie Dern lands a punch on Tecia Torres during the second round Saturday, April 9, 2022 during UFC 273 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Pom Corey April 13
  • Highly-ranked women’s strawweights clash as Mackenzie Dern battles Yan Xiaonan in the main event at UFC Vegas 61
  • The co-main event features a clash of welterweights as Randy Brown takes on Francisco Trinaldo
  • Read on for all the UFC Vegas 61 odds and picks (Dern vs Yan) ahead of on Saturday night’s card at UFC Apex

The spotlight will be focused on the ladies in the main event at UFC Fight Night 211 on Saturday night, as Mackenzie Dern takes on Yan Xiaonan in a clash of highly ranked women’s strawweights. Dern aims to build on a narrow split decision win over Tecia Torres at UFC 273 that has lifted her into the No. 5 spot in the UFC women’s strawweight rankings. Conversely, Yan will be aiming to avoid dropping from No. 6 in the rankings. Yan is coming off a split-decision loss to Marina Rodriguez six months ago at UFC 272, extending her current losing streak to two fights.

Prelim action gets underway at 4:00pm ET on Saturday night at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, with all the action available on ESPN+. The main card follows on ESPN+ at 7:00pm ET.

UFC Vegas 61 Odds

Fighter Odds
MacKenzie Dern -230
Yan Xiaonan +180
Fighter Odds
Randy Brown -305
Francisco Trinaldo +240
Fighter Odds
Maxim Grishin -175
Philipe Lins +137
Fighter Odds
John Castaneda -186
Daniel Santos +150
Fighter Odds
Jessica Penne +175
Tabatha Ricci -220
Fighter Odds
Julija Stoliarenko -115
Chelsea Chandler -108
Fighter Odds
Sodiq Yusuff -910
Don Shainis +310
Fighter Odds
Brendan Allen +104
Krzysztof Jotko -129
Fighter Odds
Mike Davis -190
Viacheslav Borschev +150
Fighter Odds
Raoni Barcelos -235
Trevin Jones +185
Fighter Odds
Joaquim Silva -150
Jesse Ronson +120
Fighter Odds
Aleksei Oleinik +143
Ilir Latifi -180
Fighter Odds
Randy Costa -305
Guido Cannetti +240

Odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of September 28, 2022.

Dern enters Saturday’s main event as a -230 favorite with Yan coming back as a +180 underdog. The odds for the penultimate fight of the night are even more lopsided; Randy Brown is a -305 betting favorite over Francisco Trinaldo (+240).


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Dern vs Yan Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

Mackenzie avoided consecutive defeats for the first time in her career with a split decision win over Tecia Torres in her first ever fight to go five full rounds. Overall, Dern has seen three of her past four fights go the distance.

Yan is currently mired in the first losing streak of her career. Her current slide comes on the heels of a six-fight win streak to start her UFC career, with each of those victories coming by decision.

Dern vs Yan Stats

29 Age 33
5′ 4″ Height 5′ 5″
63 inches Reach 63 inches
12-2-0, (7) Pro MMA Record (finishes) 15-3-0, (7)
#5 UFC Welterweight Ranking #6

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Mackenzie Dern is also an accomplished grappler. In addition to taking home a wide array of medals during her amateur Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu career, Dern also claimed gold at the 2015 ADCC Submission Fighting World Championship.

The 29-year-old has since established herself as an accomplished submission specialist, with seven of her 12 pro MMA victories coming by tap out. Dern has claimed Performance of the Night bonuses in each of her past four submission victories, with three of those wins coming inside five minutes.

Striking is not Dern’s biggest strength. She has averaged just 3.16 significant strikes landed per minute since joining the UFC, and has never claimed victory by KO or TKO.

Dern vs Yan Recent Fights

Tecia Torres (win – split decision) Fight 1 Marina Rodriguez (loss – split decision)
Marina Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 2 Carla Esparza (loss – TKO)
Nina Nunes (win – submission) Fight 3 Cláudia Gadelha (win – unanimous decision)
Virna Jandiroba (win – unanimous decision) Fight 4 Karolina Kowalkiewicz (win – unanimous decision)
Randa Markos (win – submission) Fight 5 Angela Hill (win – unanimous decision)

A knockout specialist early in her career, with six of her first nine victories coming by first-round finish, Yan has evolved her game since joining the UFC, with seven of her first eight octagon appearances going a full three rounds. However, she has never seen action in championship rounds.

While Yan sits among the all-time leaders in significant strikes landed and per minute among UFC women’s strawweights, she was out-struck by a wide margin in each of her two recent losses, including a crushing second-round TKO loss to current champion Carla Esparza last year at UFC Vegas 27.

Yan has also struggled on the mat against accomplished grapplers, with opponents racking up almost 15 minutes of combined control time over her past three fights.

Pick: Dern by finish (-114)

Trinaldo vs Brown Odds & Pick

Francisco Trinaldo vies for a third straight win when he battles fellow welterweight Randy brown in the UFC Vegas 61 co-main event. Trinaldo is coming off a unanimous decision win over Danny Roberts at UFC 274, and has now seen eight of his past 10 fights go the distance.

In addition to being durable, Trinaldo has also proven his ability win standing up and on the mat. He has tallied five career wins by submission, but has not submitted an opponent since his first-round win over Mike Rio in 2013.

Trinaldo vs Brown Recent Fights

Danny Roberts (win – unanimous decision) Fight 1 Khaos Williams (loss – split decision)
Dwight Grant (win – split decision) Fight 2 Jared Gooden (loss – TKO)
Muslim Salikhov (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 3 Alex Oliveira (win – submission)
Jai Herbert (win – TKO) Fight 4 Vicente Luque (loss – KO)
Jon Makdessi (win – unanimous decision) Fight 5 Warlley Alves (win – submission)

Randy Brown possess a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and has tallied five career submission wins. His most recent win came against Alex Oliveira just 2:50 into their UFC 261 clash.

Each of Brown’s two most recent losses have come by second-round KO, to Vicente Luque and Niko Price.

Pick: Brown (-305)

Other UFC Vegas 61 Picks

  • Maxim Grishin (-175): Grishin struggled to make weight and compete while fighting as a heavyweight, but was dominant while going undefeated in his past nine fights at 205 pounds.
  • Trevin Jones (+185): Expect hard-hitting Jones to regularly tee off on Raoni Barcelos, who has a long history of absorbing a lot of significant strikes
  • Jesse Ronson (+120): Ronson has demonstrated impressive mat skills during a pair of recent first-round submission finishes.


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