UFC Fight Night Odds: Expert Predictions for Burns vs Morales

• UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales gets underway this Saturday, May 17
• Gilbert Burns meets Michael Morales in the main event
• Find all the UFC Fight odds and our expert predictions

A scintillating welterweight bout headlines UFC Fight as Gilbert Burns meets Michael Morales on Saturday, May 17th. This fight card is sure to entertain as menacing light heavyweight Rodolfo Bellato goes to war with Paul Craig in the co-main event.

Catch all the action live from the UFC Apex on ESPN+ as the main card gets underway at 7pm ET and dive into the latest UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales odds and all my best bets, below.

UFC Fight Night Odds: Burns vs Morales Card

The UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales odds see Rodolfo Bellato as the -535 favorite over Paul Craig who comes back as a +400 underdog.

Odds as of May 14th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Look for a DraftKings promo code for all your UFC betting action.

Burns vs Morales Prediction

This welterweight scrap is a classic battle of a surging contender versus a battle-tested veteran. Burns has been a UFC mainstay since 2014, and this UFC Fight Night main event marks his 24th bout in the Octagon. The Brazilian bruiser has fought all of the elite names in the division, facing off against the likes of Kamaru Usman, Khamzat Chimaev, Belal Muhammad, new champion Jack Della Maddalena and Jorge Masvidal. But, at 38 years old, and coming off of three straight losses, it feels like he’s being fed to the wolves here.

Meanwhile, Michael Morales is on a meteoric rise. The Ecuadorian phenom has won 17 straight bouts to begin his pro career, and has swept away each and every step up in competition. He combines crisp, technical boxing with lightning fast counters and has flashed excellent takedown defense when tests.

This bout sets up perfectly for Morales to make a statement. Burns will likely look to press the action early and initiate grappling exchanges, but Morales’ length and footwork should allow him to manage the distance and punish his older, slower opponent. If Burns can’t get this fight to the ground – this fight could get ugly.

Sportsbooks have instilled Morales as a heavy -850 favorite, pointing to his youth, momentum and explosive striking advantage. Look for Morales to keep this fight standing and use his hands to wear down and knockout the aging Burns.

Burns vs Morales best bet: Michael Morales to win by KO (-150)

Bellato vs Craig Prediction

Expect violence in the UFC Fight Night co-main event. Rodolfo Bellato is a pure finisher, as 11 of his 12 career victories have come by knockout submission. The Brazilian rarely leaves the judges to decide the victor. While Paul Craig is the ultimate wild card. The Scottish veteran can look awful while getting pummeled for 10 minutes before pulling off an unbelievable comeback.

The key here is how long Craig can survive on his feet. Bellato is a far more powerful and expertly composed striker. If Craig fails to force a grappling exchange, he’s likely going to get blasted. However, there’s always the chaos factor. Bellato’s tendency to overextend his punches and load up could leave openings for Craig to pounce into guard and lock up a limb.

Still, as a massive -535 favorite, the betting balance leans Bellato’s way. He’s younger, faster, and far more dangerous on his feet. Unless Craig can find an early submission, this fight could be over quickly. Back Bellato to finish the fight in the first round.

Bellato vs Craig best bet: Rodolfo Bellato to win by knockout in Round 1 (+165)