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UFC Fight Night Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds, Picks & Predictions

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Mixed Martial Arts News

Jul 13, 2022 · 6:52 AM PDT

Brian Ortega throwing a punch at Alexander Volkanovski
Sep 25, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Brian Ortega moves in for a hit as Alexander Volkanovski defends during UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • UFC action returns to Long Island on Saturday afternoon
  • Top-ranked featherweight contenders clash in the main event as Brian Ortega battles Yair Rodriguez
  • Read on for all the UFC Long island odds, along with with all our best bet predictions

The UFC returns to Long Island for the first time since 2017 for UFC on ABC 3 on Saturday, July 16. Brian Ortega takes on fellow featherweight Yair Rodriguez in the main event, while the co-main event features a UFC women’s strawweight clash between Michelle Waterson and Amanda Lemos.

Fight fans should prepare for an early start at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. UFC Fight Night: Long Island prelim action gets underway on Saturday morning at 11:00 am ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card at 2:00 pm ET on ABC.

UFC Long Island Odds

Fighter Odds
Brian Ortega -167
Yair Rodriguez +134
Fighter Odds
Michelle Waterson +270
Amanda Lemos -360
Fighter Odds
Li Jiangling +148
Muslin Salikhov -186
Fighter Odds
Matt Schnell +210
Su Mudaerji -275
Fighter Odds
Lauren Murphy +165
Miesha Tate -210
Fighter Odds
Shane Burgos -190
Charles Jourdain +150
Fighter Odds
Dalcha Lungiambula +215
Punahele Soriano -278
Fighter Odds
Ricky Simon +140
Jack Shore -177
Fighter Odds
Dustin Jacoby -134
Da Un Jung +108
Fighter Odds
Dwight Grant -155
Dustin Stoltzfus +124
Fighter Odds
Jessica Penne +119
Emily Ducote -148

Odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of July 12, 2022.



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Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds & Pick

Ortega is the No. 2 ranked contender in the 145-pound division despite appearing in the octagon just three times over the past four years, a run that includes a pair of defeats.

Rodriguez trails at No. 3 in the UFC featherweight rankings. But consistent success has eluded El Pantera during a sparse five-fight run that dates back to 2017.

Ortega vs Rodriguez Recent Fights

Alexander Volkanovski (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 1 Max Holloway (loss – unanimous decision)
Chan Sung Jung (win – unanimous decision) Fight 2 Jeremy Stephens (win – unanimous decision)
Max Holloway (loss – TKO) Fight 3 Jeremy Stephens (no contest)
Frankie Edgar (win – KO) Fight 4 Chan Sung Jung (win – KO)
Cub Swanson (win – submission) Fight 5 Frankie Edgar (loss – TKO)

A fearsome finisher early in his career, “T-City” has seen his past three fights extend into championship rounds, with mixed results. The 31-year-old was outclassed in his first bid for the 145-pound strap, a five-round unanimous decision loss to Max Holloway at UFC 231.

Following a 22-month layoff, Ortega rebounded with a unanimous decision win over the Korean Zombie in an epic five-round clash at UFC Fight Island 6, earning him another title shot. But Ortega was out of his league at UFC 266 against Volkanovski, despite his late-fight heroics, as the champion outstruck him by a wide 214-88 margin, while also dominating on the mat.

T-City ranks among the leading UFC featherweights in finishes, submissions, knockdowns and submission attempts, and enjoys plenty of experience in championship rounds.

Ortega vs Rodriguez Stats

31 Age 29
5′ 9″ Height 5′ 11″
69 inches Reach 71 inches
15-2-0 (10) Pro MMA Record (finishes) 13-3-0, 1 mo contest (7)
#2 UFC Featherweight Ranking #3

Opportunity knocks for Yair Rodriguez, who claims to have been promised a title shot if he can win on Saturday. Like Ortega, El Pantera went five rounds against Holloway last time out. But was dominated in every aspect of the fight on his way to a unanimous decision win.

Victorious in 11 of his first 12 fights, Ortega has tallied just two wins in his past five outings. That run started with a crushing KO loss to Frankie Edgar, while his recent victories over Jeremy Stephens and Korean Zombie came by the narrowest of margins.

The 29-year-old sits among the UFC featherweight leaders in strikes landed, and has never been knocked down in the octagon. However, he has been taken down six total times over his past two fights, a trend that does not bode well against a submission specialist like Ortega.

Pick: Ortega by submission (+270)

Waterson vs Lemos Odds & Pick

Michelle Waterson is desperate for a victory after losing three of four contests, capped by a unanimous decision loss to Marina Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 26. “The Karate Hottie” has seen eight straight contests settled by the judges including a trio of split decisions.

While that run has proven her durability, Waterson could benefit from a return to the ferocious ground game that powered her to nine tap-out wins in her first 18 pro fights.

Waterson vs Lemos Recent Fights

Marina Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 1 Jessica Andrade (loss – submission)
Angela Hill (win – split decision) Fight 2 Angela Hill (win – split decision)
Carla Esparza (loss – split decision) Fight 3 Montserrat Ruiz (win – TKO)
Joanna Jędrzejczyk (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 4 Lívia Renata Souza (win – TKO)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (win – unanimous decision) Fight 5 Mizuki Inoue (win – unanimous decision)

Amanda Lemos saw a five-fight win streak ended with a first-round submission loss to former champion Jessica Andrade at UFC Vegas 52.

Currently pegged at No. 11 in the rankings, Lemos owns devastating punching power, and has finished opponents inside five minutes in eight of her 11 career wins.

Pick: Lemos to win by finish (+205)

Other UFC Fight Night: Long Island Picks

  • Muslim Salikhov (-186): The unheralded veteran welterweight currently enjoys five-fight win streak that features two victories. He also sports impressive defensive skills, which should be enough to get him past Li Jiangling despite a significant reach disadvantage.
  • Lauren Murphy (+165): Murphy got beat up in a fourth-round TKO loss to champion Valentina Shevchenko last fall, ending a four-fight win streak. However, “Lucky” has largely dominated while winning six of eight since moving down to the UFC flyweight division in 2017.
  • Jack Shore (-177): Many observers were surprised this clash didn’t make the main card. Indeed, Shore has emerged as a sensation during a 16-0-0 start to his career, and has needed just five fights to establish himself as one of the top strikers and takedown specialists among UFC bantamweights.


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