UFC Fight Night Paris Predictions & Odds: Imavov vs Borralho Picks

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night heads to Paris with middleweight contenders Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho fighting for a potential title shot
• Imavov enters as a +110 underdog despite fighting on home soil against the unbeaten Borralho
• Check out my UFC Paris predictions for Imavov vs Borralho and more

The UFC heads to Paris this Saturday for a middleweight fight that might determine who challenges Khamzat Chimaev next. Caio Borralho is the favorite at most sportsbooks, even though Nassourdine Imavov will have the home crowd behind him. I think there’s value in backing the Frenchman, but I also see some better opportunities elsewhere on this card.

Saturday’s action kicks off early at the Accor Arena in Paris, with prelims starting at noon ET and the main card going live at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Here are my UFC Paris predictions for the top fights on the card.

Imavov vs Borralho Prediction

Borralho (17-1) comes into this fight on a 16-fight win streak and is 7-0 in the UFC. He recently outlasted Jared Cannonier over five rounds, showing he has the stamina for long fights. Still, Imavov finished Cannonier, while Borralho had to go to the judges.

Tale of the Tape

The stats favor Borralho with his 60 percent striking accuracy and 62 percent defense both sitting in elite territory. But Imavov’s entering his prime at 29 while Borralho’s already 33. That matters over five rounds.

Borralho wants this fight on the mat. He’s got slick jiu-jitsu and loves hunting submissions or grinding out control time. Problem is, Imavov stuffed Brendan Allen on 9 of 10 takedown attempts, and Allen’s a better wrestler than Borralho. The Frenchman also took down Cannonier twice, while Borralho never even tried.

If this stays standing, I like Imavov’s cleaner boxing and the Paris crowd pushing him forward to make the difference. The 29-year-old’s on a four-fight streak with finishes over Israel Adesanya and Cannonier. That’s championship form.

• Imavov vs Borralho Pick: Imavov Moneyline (+110)

Saint-Denis vs Ruffy Prediction

Benoit Saint-Denis is damaged goods. The French special forces vet got demolished by Renato Moicano in his last Paris appearance, then Dustin Poirier knocked him stiff. His tune-up against Kyle Prepolec didn’t look great either. BSD was a -1600 favorite and still ate shots from a guy who shouldn’t be in the UFC.

Mauricio Ruffy’s the real deal. Another Fighting Nerds product who’s 3-0 in the UFC with scary power and precision. The speed difference is massive. Ruffy throws punches twice as fast as BSD, who absorbs 59 percent of significant strikes thrown at him.

BSD charges forward with his chin up and his hands down. I expect Ruffy to catch him clean and put him away early. The Brazilian’s got the counter-striking skills to punish BSD’s aggressive style.

• Saint-Denis vs Ruffy Pick: Ruffy by KO/TKO (+100)

Jones vs Oki Prediction

Mason Jones came back to the UFC and went to war with Jeremy Stephens, reminding everyone why he was Cage Warriors’ double champ. The Welshman brings relentless pressure, mixing in 4.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with volume striking.

Bolaji Oki’s been underwhelming in the UFC. Chris Duncan submitted him in the first round, and his decision wins over Timmy Cuamba, and Michael Aswell weren’t impressive. Both those guys are 1-3 in the UFC combined.

Jones has the wrestling, the cardio, and the chin to break Oki down. Once he gets going in rounds 2 and 3, I see Oki wilting under the pressure.

• Jones vs Oki Pick: Jones Moneyline (-142)

Bukauskas vs Craig Prediction

Paul Craig’s been in the UFC forever, and his striking still looks like it did on day one. The submission specialist has one path to victory against Modestas Bukauskas, and that’s pulling guard and hunting triangles. Problem is, Bukauskas isn’t falling for it.

Bukauskas has looked reborn in his second UFC stint, stringing together three straight wins with improved striking and fight IQ. He’s smart enough to keep this standing where Craig’s defensive liabilities get exposed. Craig’s chin has been cracking lately, and I think Bukauskas has the power to finish him.

• Bukauskas vs Craig Pick: Bukauskas by KO/TKO (-140)

Sola vs McKee Prediction

Axel Sola gets the perfect opportunity to make his UFC debut in front of the home crowd Saturday night. The undefeated French prospect (10-0-1) brings serious momentum from his dominant run in European MMA, including recent wins over Ghiles Oudelha and Lucas Caio.

Rhys McKee’s been through the wars in the UFC but finally got back in the win column with a first-round TKO over Daniel Frunza. The veteran from Northern Ireland has the experience edge, but Sola’s explosive striking and wrestling should give him problems. McKee’s best chance is to weather the early storm and drag this into deep waters where his conditioning takes over.

Sola’s got the home crowd, the momentum, and the athleticism to overwhelm McKee early. The French prospect has finished six of his 10 wins and should have the speed advantage against the 30-year-old veteran. McKee’s durability keeps this interesting, but I like Sola to get it done in front of his home fans.

• Sola vs McKee Pick: Sola Moneyline (-130)

UFC Paris Odds – Main Card

Odds as of September 6th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Paris on Saturday.

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The betting market’s been all over Borralho this week. He opened at plus-money and now sits at -130. That’s creating value on Imavov as the home underdog. Meanwhile, Jones opened as a bigger favorite, but some money has come in on Oki, moving the line from -130 to -142.

With Keita missing weight and getting pulled from the card, Sola, Gomis and Saint-Denis become the other French fighters for fans to back. The home crowd advantage could be significant for both Imavov and Sola in particular, on Saturday night.