UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Bonfim vs. Brown

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas is headlined by the Bonfim vs Brown Welterweight bout
• Bonfim has won eight of his last nine fights, but faces a major size disadvantage
• See the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds below, plus the rest of my Main Card bets

It’s not a sexy card for UFC Fight Night 111 on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth sweating. 12 fights are on deck, headlined by the Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown bout. Bonfim is a sizeable favorite at the moment, but the line is moving toward Brown for good reason as we’ll discuss.

The prelims are set to get underway from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas at 1:45 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET, with the Main Card fights starting at 4:15 pm PT / 7:15 pm ET on ESPN+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for my favorite fights on the card.

Bonfim vs Brown Prediction

Neither Bonfim or Brown rank inside the top-10 in the Welterweight division. In fact, Brown isn’t even ranked at all. Bonfim checks in at #14, but that’s awfully generous given his latest performance.

Bonfim was last in the Octacon back in July, when he earned a controversial split decision over 42-year-old Stephen Thompson. The wiley veteran had been knocked out in his previous two fights, but Bonfim not only couldn’t finish him, many experts agree he didn’t even beat him.

Nevertheless, the victory ran his UFC record to 5-1, giving him eight wins in his last nine fights overall. Bonfim may be the slightly better grappler in this bout, but he’s got a lot of things working against him.

Tale of the Tape

For starters, how about the size disadvantage the Brazilian will face. Brown checks in a full two inches taller, and boasts a reach that’s 5.5 inches longer. He’ll be able to throw punches from a safe distance, and as the superior striker, he’s more likely to finish the fight if they stay on their feet.

Brown’s takedown defense is good enough to thwart Bonfim, and he also enters the ring having faced much tougher competition. This is a guy that’s ran the gauntlet in the Welterweight division, and is fresh off an impressive knockout win over Nicholas Dalby, the one man who’s beaten Bonfim so far.

Brown opened as a +150 underdog, but that number’s already been bet down to +140. I make this fight as a virtual coin flip, making Brown a steal at his current price.

• Bonfim vs Brown Picks: Brown Moneyline (+140)

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of November 7 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

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Schnell vs Morales Prediction

The most lopsided fight on the main card per the odds, is the Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales bout. Morales, the Ultimate Fighter season 33 winner, impressed in his title fight back in August, submitting Alibi Idiris as a big underdog.

Morales is going to apply a ton of pressure with his wrestling and Schnell just isn’t built to defend it. Schnell has dropped three of his past four UFC fights, with his lone win coming against a guy who was cut from the promotion. Even in that victory, Schnell was taken down five times, and has been knocked out twice in his last four bouts.

Morales isn’t a world class striker, but he’s more than capable of exposing Schnell’s weak chin. I’m expecting he ends this fight inside the distance, either by knockout or submission.

• Schnell vs Morales Pick: Morales to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-130)

Salikhov vs Medic Prediction

There’s one thing we know about the Muslim Salikhov vs Uros Medic fight: it’s not going to go the distance. None of Medic’s 14 bouts have ever gone to the scorecards, while Salikhov enters on the strength of back-to-back finishes.

Medic is somehow a -148 favorite, despite being dropped often recently. He’s alternated wins and losses over his last four fights, and now has to deal with a lethal striker, who has 15 finishes on his resume.

You could wager on Salikhov to just score the upset at +124, or you could bet on the King of Kung Fu to be the latest fighter to finish Medic at much juicier odds.

• Salikhov vs Medic Pick: Salikhov to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+165)