UFC Fight Night Predictions & Odds: Evloev vs. Murphy

• Movsar Evloev is a -238 moneyline favorite over Lerone Murphy in the headline bout at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in London
• Neither man has suffered a professional loss on their resume
• See my UFC Fight Night predictions, plus the odds for the Evloev vs Murphy card

The UFC is in London this weekend, with a Fight Night card on Saturday headlined by the Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy featherweight bout.

Online sportsbooks have pegged Evloev as a -238 moneyline favorite, while the heavy juice on over 4.5 rounds suggests this fight is bound to go to a decision.

The UFC Fight Night prelim bouts are set to begin at 1:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card fights expected to start at 4:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night predictions, plus the odds for the Evloev vs Murphy card.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Evloev to Win by Decision

Neither one of these fighters has suffered a professional loss, combining for a record of 36-0-1. The 36 combined victories by two opponents without a defeat is the most ever for any UFC bout, which begs the question, why wasn’t this fight saved for a bigger card? Perhaps it’s because Murphy will be fighting in front of his home country fans. Regardless, the winner of this bout will earn a Featherweight title shot, upping the stakes for the matchup.

Evloev vs Murphy Tale of the Tape

Murphy is the much cleaner striker between the two, and has shown the ability to get back to his feet when facing elite grapplers in the past. That skill will be tested again versus Evloev, but I have my doubts that Murphy is truly ready for the relentless take-down pressure from his opponent.

Evloev averages 5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and once on the ground, he dominates position holding an 81% control rate. He should be able to completely neutralize Murphy on the mat and pick him apart on points, ultimately scoring a decision victory. All nine of his UFC wins have come on the judges’ scorecards, and this one will as well.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Evloev to win by Decision (-120 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of March 20 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Campbell Boosted Parlay

Next up, I’m going to take advantage of a boosted parlay offered by Bet365. The sportsbook is offering +250 odds on Kurtis Campbell to defeat Danny Silva inside the distance, and that’s a bet I can’t pass up.

Campbell is a strong grappler who also boasts some serious knockout power, as he demonstrated on the Contender series. He’s more aggressive and a cleaner striker than Silva, who wants to keep this fight on the mat at all costs.

The problem is that Silva struggles to maintain control once he does score a takedown. Although it’s a small sample size, Campbell holds a 100% takedown defense record, and he should be able to use his 2-inch arm-length advantage and 3.5-inch leg-length advantage to thwart Silva’s advances, eventually scoring a finishing blow.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Campbell to Win, Fight to Not Go the Distance Parlay (+250 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Patterson Moneyline

Last but not least, I’m taking a swing on Sam Patterson’s upside targeting his +160 moneyline versus Michael Page. Patterson enters the cage riding a four-fight winning streak, and I’m counting on his striking volume to get the job done.

Patterson averages 4.79 significant strikes per minute, which is two and a half more than his opponent. He’s also 9 years younger and has a history of ending his fights within the 1st Round. A finish may be unlikely against Page, who has proven to be one of the most difficult fighters to hit. He absorbs less than 2 significant strikes per minute, but his lack of aggression will ultimately be his undoing.

Patterson should have the advantage on their feet, but can also win this fight on the mat. Page boasts just a 66% takedown defense, while Patterson’s takedown accuracy has been nearly flawless over his short UFC run.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Sam Patterson (+160 at DraftKings)