UFC Vegas 109 Predictions & Odds: Hernandez vs Dolidze Card Picks

• UFC Vegas 109 brings middleweight contenders to the APEX with Anthony Hernandez taking on Roman Dolidze in the main event
• Former flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg looks to rebound against Ode Osbourne in the co-main event
• Check out our UFC Vegas 109 predictions, picks and odds analysis below

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The UFC returns to its APEX facility in Las Vegas for the second straight week, bringing UFC Vegas 109 this Saturday, August 9th. The card delivers a middleweight main event between No. 10-ranked Anthony Hernandez and No. 8-ranked Roman Dolidze in what could determine the next title eliminator at 185 pounds.

The card kicks off early with prelims starting at 1:15 pm ET and the main card dropping at 4:15 pm ET on ESPN+.

Here are my UFC Vegas 109 predictions for the biggest fights on the card.

Hernandez vs Dolidze Prediction

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez enters as a -345 favorite, and the numbers back it up. He’s on a seven-fight winning streak, most recently dominating Brendan Allen for a clear decision in February. Before that, he delivered one of the most brutal beatings in UFC history against Michel Pereira.

Roman Dolidze brings a three-fight winning streak of his own, but those wins over Marvin Vettori, Kevin Holland, and Anthony Smith haven’t aged particularly well. Vettori was coming off a long injury layoff, the Holland fight ended due to injury, and the Smith bout was a glorified sparring session.

Tale of the Tape

Hernandez is a cardio machine with excellent grappling who uses relentless pressure to break opponents. Dolidze has size and strength, but his gas tank becomes an issue in later rounds, especially at middleweight where the weight cut affects him more.

Dolidze will try to bully Hernandez early with clinch work and power shots to the body. But once we get past the first 10 minutes, Hernandez’s pace and scrambling ability should take over. The over 3.5 rounds at -130 looks appealing, but Hernandez by decision at +185 offers the best value.

• Hernandez vs Dolidze Pick: Anthony Hernandez by Decision (+185)

Erceg vs Osbourne Prediction

Steve Erceg needs a win badly. After losing his title shot to Alexandre Pantoja, he’s dropped two straight to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno. But this is a massive step down in competition against Ode Osbourne, who’s lost three of his last four.

Steve Erceg has learned a lot of lessons during his 3-fight skid, and knows he could be fighting for his job this Saturday at UFC Vegas 109.

(Via @MikeHeck_JR) pic.twitter.com/Gy23lVq3xC

— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) August 6, 2025

Osbourne has been submitted four times in his career, including recent losses to Ronaldo Rodriguez and Jafel Filho. That’s a massive red flag against Erceg, who has six submission wins and elite-level grappling. The Australian’s black belt jiu-jitsu against Osbourne’s defensive holes creates a clear mismatch.

While Erceg is a massive -575 favorite on the moneyline, his submission prop at +175 offers tremendous value. The smaller APEX cage benefits grapplers, and Erceg should dominate the positional exchanges.

• Erceg vs Osbourne Pick: Steve Erceg by Submission (+175)

Other UFC Vegas 109 Predictions

Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill:

This is the upset special of the card. Angela Hill is 40 years old but hasn’t shown her age lately, taking a split decision over Ketlen Souza in February where she looked fast and sharp. She landed 112 significant strikes against Tabatha Ricci in a competitive loss.

Lucindo’s four-fight winning streak was snapped by Amanda Lemos, who dominated her on the ground. Hill has 75% takedown defense and the experience to keep this standing, where her volume striking can pile up points.

• Pick: Angela Hill (+164)

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez:

Rodriguez is a funny fighter who looked great against top prospects Raul Rosas Jr. and Austin Bashi but struggled against veterans Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. At 37, Fili is giving up seven years but has the size, reach, and experience edge.

Christian Rodriguez fight week 🎬 pic.twitter.com/jzUKkXJcA0

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) August 3, 2025

This fight likely stays standing with both fighters having strong takedown defense. Rodriguez should control with his wrestling and pressure, but the over 2.5 rounds at -230 is the safer play given both fighters’ durability.

• Pick: Christian Rodriguez (-230)

Eryk Anders vs Christian Leroy Duncan:

Duncan is a massive -575 favorite, but Anders is one of the toughest outs in the division. He’s never been knocked out clean in the UFC despite fighting killers like Khalil Rountree Jr. and Marc-Andre Barriault.

Duncan should pepper Anders with strikes and win a clear decision, but he lacks killer instinct. The over 2.5 rounds at -188 offers great value given Anders’ legendary durability.

• Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-188)

Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira:

Walker is a -650 favorite against Cerqueira, who’s 0-2 in the UFC with two first-round finishes. Walker showed promise in his debut against Alonzo Menifield, and this is a massive step down in competition.

Walker’s power and aggressive wrestling should overwhelm Cerqueira early. The under 1.5 rounds is juiced at -270, but Walker by KO/TKO offers better value.

• Pick: Julius Walker by KO/TKO (-175)

Best UFC Vegas 109 Parlay Bets:

Uros Medic + Anthony Hernandez (-169)

Medic faces Gilbert Urbina, who’s been finished in both UFC losses and isn’t UFC-caliber. Medic’s power should find the mark early. Pair that with Hernandez’s relentless pace breaking down Dolidze for a solid two-fighter parlay.

Steve Erceg + Julius Walker (-274)

Two massive favorites with clear paths to victory. Erceg’s grappling against Osbourne’s submission defense issues and Walker’s power against an overmatched Cerqueira make this the safest parlay on the card.

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UFC Vegas 109 Odds

Odds as of August 7th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday.

The early UFC Vegas 109 betting lines show this is a chalk-heavy card with several massive favorites above -400. The value plays are limited, but Angela Hill at +164 stands out as the best underdog, while Steve Erceg by submission at +175 offers tremendous value despite his -575 moneyline.

Sharp money has moved toward Hernandez, who opened around -300 and has been bet up to -345. The over/under totals suggest several finishes are expected, particularly in the prelims where fighters like Walker, Medic, and Elijah Smith are expected to end things early.