NBA Betting – Will OKC Continue to Surprise Spurs?

San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 200 o/u) at Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s a good thing for the Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) that margin of victory is meaningless in the NBA. After getting routed in Game 1 and surviving an insane finish to eke out a one-point win in Game 2, the Thunder head home knotted at one game apiece in their best-of-seven series with the San Antonio Spurs (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS). Kevin Durant and company will look to take their first lead of the series tomorrow night in Game 3 at Chesapeake Energy Arena (9:30 PM Eastern).

This series has been beyond bizarre. Game 1 saw San Antonio curb-stomp OKC by 32 points. The game was all but over in the first quarter, and the Spurs looked like they would cruise to the conference finals.

Game 2 was another story. Everyone was in a huff post-game due to the controversial finish, which saw the refs miss no fewer than five calls in the dying seconds. But, going forward, the import of Game 2 is that OKC was able to hang with San Antonio on the road for 48 minutes.

Durant and Russell Westbrook, who both struggled mightily in Game 1, were a combined 22 of 44 from the field for 57 points. Center Steven Adams, meanwhile, who was dominated in the post by LaMarcus Aldridge in the first meeting to the tune of 38 points, bounced back with 12 points and 17 boards. (Although Aldridge still went off for 41 points in Game 2.)

The setback was just the second home loss for San Antonio all season. Now OKC, who went a very respectable 32-9 at home during the regular season, have snatched home-court advantage in what is now a best-of-five. The Spurs were a solid road team this year (27-14), but lost both regular-season visits to Chesapeake Energy Arena.

The good news for San Antonio is that their mostly aged roster is getting four full days of rest between Games 2 and 3.

The other piece of good news is that OKC still has no answer for Aldridge. Gregg Popovich can continue to exploit OKC’s horrid post-defense by running the offense through the big-man. And the chances of Aldridge continuing to put up scary numbers in an efficient manner is a better bet than relying on Durant and Westbrook to stay efficient against the best defense in the NBA.

That’s why the sharks jumped on the opening line (San Antonio +1), moving it all the way to San Antonio -1.5.

But, call me a fish if you like, I’m taking the Thunder and the points now. Why? They’ve got the momentum and the trends are hugely in their favor: not only did they take both regular season meetings in OKC, but since 2012, they’re 5-1 at home in the playoffs against the Spurs. They’re also 11-2 SU in their last 13 at home against San Antonio, overall.

Pick: OKC +1.5.

(Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/])