NBA Draft Odds – The Quicker Sixer Fixer?

While the Philadelphia 76ers are no strangers to being at the top of the draft board, a host of top-three picks haven’t helped the long-struggling franchise reverse its fortunes. (It would probably help if those picks actually played. But that’s a debate for another day.)

The Sixers finished last season with just ten wins, yet managed to leave their losing ways on the basketball court, winning the draft lottery and scoring the no. 1 overall pick.

There’s been ample debate about whether LSU’s Ben Simmons or Duke’s Brandon Ingram would/should go first overall. As draft day approaches, that debate is dying down.

Which of the transcendent talents is going to have the onus of turning Philly into a winner (or a non-laughing stock, at the very least)? If I told you that now, what impetus would you have to read our odds below? I s’pose there’s the fact that we also address several other props, like which teams are going to deal their picks, how many Kentucky Wildcats are going to be first rounders, and how “international” this year’s draft will taste.

Is that enough to keep you motivated? I hope so, for your sake. Scouts aren’t content with readers who, like, know all the letters; they want to see some hustle and heart, too!

2016 NBA Draft Odds

Odds to be the no. 1 overall pick

Ben Simmons (LSU): 1/8
Brandon Ingram (Duke): 17/2
FIELD: 200/1

What of all that aforementioned debate? The Sixers quashed it. Simmons is their guy. – Sascha Paruk

Odds to be the last player left in the green room

Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga): 7/1
Deyonta Davis (MSU): 15/2
Jakob Poeltl (Utah): 15/2
Henry Ellenson (Marquette): 8/1
Wade Baldwin (Vanderbilt): 9/1
Marquese Chriss (Washington): 11/1
Skal Labissiere (Kentucky): 11/1

There are 14 green-room invitees total. Notice a lack of guards on our list? That’s because there’s a lack of guards generally in this draft. The Kris Dunns and Jaylen Browns will go early-ish. The last guy in the green room is going to be one of the many power forwards. Which one is incredibly hard to say. A lot project similarly at the next level. Chriss and Labissiere have the highest “upside” (a term we’ll be hearing a lot on draft day; see below), which teams covet these days. – Sascha Paruk

Over/under on draft position for

Buddy Hield (Oklahoma): 5.5
Jamal Murray (Kentucky): 5.5
Jaylen Brown (Cal):8.5
Denzel Valentine (MSU): 18.5
Thon Maker (Australia/Canada): 23.5

Odds on which projected top-ten pick (per CBS’ mock draft) will fall the furthest

Jamal Murray (Kentucky): 9/4
Dragan Bender (Croatia): 3/1
Marquese Chriss (Washington): 7/2

This isn’t a knock on Murray’s talents – he certainly is a top-five player in the draft. But there’s such little consensus on who will be taken with that third-overall pick, or if Boston will even keep it. I wouldn’t be shocked if he slips four spots or so.

Bender could fall victim to the usual international player stereotypes that scare some teams off. And while Chriss has seen his stock rise drastically over the last month, what’s that old saying? “Build em’ up, just to knock em down.”– Eric Thompson

Odds on which projected non-top-ten pick (per CBS’ mock draft) will rise the highest

Dejounte Murray (Washington) : 13/4
Taurean Prince (Baylor): 13/4
Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga): 5/1

For the other Murray, it’s never a bad sign when you get a green room invite. It also helps when you’re a high-upside point guard in a class that lacks a ton of true ones. Prince is another one that screams riser with a massive wing span and ability to knock down threes. Sabonis is up against a loaded power forward crop, but every team is looks for something different out of their four spot, and the Zags big man could rub a lottery team the right way.  – Eric Thompson

Over/under on the number of seniors drafted in the first round: 4

Over/under on the number of international players drafted in the first round: 5.5

We’re only counting guys who played internationally here (e.g. not Poeltl or Sabonis). Dragan Bender is a shoo-in to be a lottery pick. Furkan Korkmaz is a SG with scary length (6’7) and will go in the first thanks to the lack of guards available. Ivica Zubac has the size (7’0) that will prevent him from falling to the second round.

Then there are a handful of guys who could go anywhere from 20th to 45th: Juan Hernangomez, Timothe Luwawu, Thon Maker, Ante Zizic, Guerschon Yabusele, Zhou Qi, Paul Zipser. Two or three of them should hear their names called in round one. – Sascha Paruk

Odds the San Antonio Spurs select an international player with their first pick in the draft: 4/3

The Spurs have taken an international player with two of their last three first-round picks: Nikola Milutinov and Livio Jean-Charles. For me, this prop depends on whether 6’9″ forward Juan Hernangomez falls to 29. San Antonio is hungry for an athletic big-man, and Hernangomez would satisfy nicely.

About five or six international players are projected first-rounders, but only Bender looks like a lottery pick. Since a good number of teams shy away from international players, it wouldn’t be crazy to see one of the international big-men fall to 29. – Matt McEwan

Over/under on the number of Kentucky Wildcats drafted in the first round: 2.5

Murray is a guaranteed lottery pick and Skal Labissiere offers “too much potential” to pass on (no matter how little that potential showed at Kentucky). That means guard Tyler Ulis will be the swing vote for this category. Thanks to a hip issue, Ulis is projected anywhere from late in the first round to early in the second. – Eric Thompson

Odds of the following players being traded before/during the draft

Although it seems the Philadelphia 76ers have a loaded front-court, Okafor is the only one who has done anything in the NBA. I don’t see the team being willing to trade the only piece who has shown anything in the league. However, his troubles off the court last season may have left a bad taste in management’s mouth.

General managers generally don’t make the same knee-jerk reactions as the average fan. With this in mind, Kevin Love’s body of work will be considered, not just his underwhelming performance in the finals.

I don’t see the Bulls trading either of their stars just yet, but if they do trade one, I see it being Rose instead of Butler. – Matt McEwan

Odds the following teams trade (at least one of) their first-round picks before the beginning of the second-round

Philadelphia 76ers: 1/3
Phoenix Suns: 1/3
Boston Celtics: 2/5
Denver Nuggets: 1/2
Minnesota Timberwolves: 4/1
Milwaukee Bucks: 7/1

The first four teams listed each have three first-round draft picks. I do not foresee any of them holding onto all three, especially considering they each have a late one. The Nuggets are the most likely of the bunch, since this year’s draft has some interesting players worth a flyer in the late-teens, like Thon Maker. The Nuggets latest pick is 19.

Milwaukee may be trading Greg Monroe, but I don’t think they’re trading their 10th-overall pick. – Matt McEwan

Odds the Brooklyn Nets trade for a first-round pick: 1/1

The Nets are one of nine teams without a first-round pick, having traded theirs to Boston (no. 3 overall).

If the Nets want to get back into the top-ten, they’ll have to part ways with either Brook Lopez or Thaddeus Young, two guys I don’t see them trading.

However, as previously mentioned, a number of teams have three picks in the first-round and may be looking to offload. It wouldn’t shock me if the Nets tried to move up into the mid-to-late 20s if someone they like is still there. The problem is their bare cupboards; Brooklyn only has one pick in this draft (no. 55) and little in the way of young pieces to offer.

We’ll see what new general manager Sean Marks can put together. – Matt McEwan

Odds the New York Knicks trade back into the draft: 19/4

While New York actually nailed their first round pick last year, now wouldn’t be the time to get cocky about the organization’s draft prowess. After shipping out all their picks in terrible, Andrea Bargnani-related deals, just getting back into the 2016 draft will be a tall order. The odds of actually hitting on a pick in this shallow draft are even lower. Why risk it? – Eric Thompson

Odds Adam Silver will be _______ upon his first appearance on the stage

Golf clapped: 1/1
Aggressively booed: 7/5
Enthusiastically cheered: 9/1

The honeymoon for the commish might be over in Golden State, but Brooklyn has been so irrelevant for the last few seasons, it’s hard to imagine they have any ill-will built up towards Silver. However, no commissioners are ever enthusiastically cheered: only deputy commissioners, and only as a method of insulting their boss. – Eric Thompson

Over/under on the number of first-round picks Nike will sign to shoe deals: 16.5

Nike got their hands on 20 of 30 first-rounders last year, according to nicekicks.com. I don’t see them hitting the same number again for a couple reasons: First, this year’s crop of rookies isn’t as sexy; will they make the same push? Second, there’s going to be a big international contingent in the first round. Emmanuel Mudiay, who hails from the Congo, was one of the few guys Nike didn’t manage to sign to a shoe deal last year. (He went with Under Armour instead.) – Sascha Paruk

Over/under on the number of times Jay Bilas uses the term “upside” in relation to a prospect: 35.5

There is a lot of upside in betting on this prop. I know, that was lame. – Matt McEwan

(Image credit: TonyTheTiger [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Image has been cropped.)