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5 Best Win Total Under Bets for 2019-20 NBA Season

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Oct 17, 2019 · 9:26 PM PDT

NBA Season Win Totals
Are LeBron James and the Lakers a good bet to go under 50.5 wins? Photo from @Lakers (Twitter).
  • The 2019-20 NBA season tips off October 22nd
  • We’ve scoured online sportsbooks to find which five NBA teams are most likely to go under their season win totals
  • The Los Angeles Lakers under has hit in six of the last seven years

Betting unders isn’t sexy but it’s typically the most bang for your buck when it comes to wagering on season win totals. With the 2019-20 NBA campaign set to tip off October 22nd, it’s time to find some over-valued teams to bet against.

Over/Under Los Angeles Lakers Regular-Season Wins

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 50.5 Wins -110
Under 50.5 Wins -110

All odds taken 10/17/19.

Year in and year out, the Los Angeles Lakers are without a doubt one of the most heavily bet over teams around the industry, but they probably shouldn’t be. Dating back to 2013, the Lakers have gone over their win total exactly once, and have failed to cover their season wins prop by an average of 8.3 games.

Before you say wait, that was before LeBron James, the news actually gets worse for LA backers.

LeBron-led teams have gone under their season wins prop in each of the last six years, and sharp money has already bet this total down a full game since it opened. The Lakers have major depth concerns and they can’t realistically bank on new acquisition Anthony Davis to stay healthy all season.

Pick: Under 50.5 wins (-110)

Over/Under Utah Jazz Regular-Season Wins

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 53.5 Wins -110
Under 53.5 Wins -110

The Utah Jazz are a trendy over bet this year, but wagering on a team with no star power to exceed 53.5 wins in a loaded conference seems foolish. The Jazz have the same win total prop as both the Clippers and the Rockets, yet their NBA Title odds are significantly longer.

They have depth issues at the guard position, and if something happens to Mike Conley, they’ll be in a world of hurt.

The Western conference is stacked with five or six legit NBA Championship contenders, plus teams like the Warriors and Spurs. It’s hard to imagine Utah beating all of those teams, plus the best the East has to offer, at a high enough rate to go over this total.

Pick: Under 53.5 wins (-110)

Over/Under Indiana Pacers Regular-Season Wins

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 46.5 Wins +100
Under 46.5 Wins -120

There’s still no timetable for Victor Oladipo’s return and there’s little incentive for the Pacers to rush him back. They’re not going to compete for the title anytime soon and adding Malcolm Brogdon isn’t going to solve their offensive inefficiency.

Indiana’s offense ranked 24th last season after Oladipo went down and five of their top seven scorers from a year ago are no longer on the team. Brogdon is a fine player, but let’s see how efficient he is when he doesn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton drawing the defense away from him. Without their star, the Pacers are a clear under play.

Pick: Under 46.5 wins (-120)

Over/Under Boston Celtics Regular-Season Wins

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 48.5 Wins -120
Under 48.5 Wins +100

This total actually opened a full game higher, but there’s still plenty of value betting under 48.5. The Celtics lost Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, and Terry Rozier in the offseason, and while they did add Kemba Walker, their roster is not all that impressive.

Jayson Tatum regressed last season, and even if you think Walker is an upgrade over Irving (the numbers suggest he’s a slight downgrade), not enough is being made of the drop off from Horford to Enes Kanter in the middle. Horford was the leader of this team, and it’s hard to see them reaching 49 wins without him.

Pick: Under 48.5 wins (+100)

Over/Under Cleveland Cavaliers Regular-Season Wins

Regular Season Wins Odds
Over 24.5 Wins +110
Under 24.5 Wins -130

You must really love basketball if you’re planning on sitting through 82 Cavs games this season. Cleveland has one of the weakest rosters in the NBA and is a prime candidate to trade away veterans assets, like Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, before the deadline. Their young core, which now includes three 2019 first-round picks, is extremely raw, and while an improvement on their 19 wins from last season is possible, 24.5 seems like way too a high a total to exceed.

Pick: Under 24.5 wins (-130)

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