Best NBA Player Props to Bet Today – A.I. Picks for Monday, Nov. 17

• Eight games are on the NBA schedule on Monday, Nov. 17
• I have used our internal A.I. to generate the top NBA player props for each game
• See the full list of A.I. NBA prop picks today, plus the book with the best odds

Our internal A.I. had been humming along in the black all season until a disastrous last effort, when it went 2-9 on NBA prop picks on Nov. 12. It’s now 47-50 overall and -6.68 units for the season as whole. I still have faith in the model, though, especially on its plus-money picks, which are +8.39 units.

I have generated its top NBA player prop pick for each of the eight games on Monday’s NBA slate, which include three plus-money bets. The table below sets out the picks for each game in chronological order. Under the table, find the A.I. explanation for each bet and one-click options to tail the picks.

NBA Player-Prop Picks Today (Nov. 17)

The three plus-money bets today are Cleveland’s Evan Mobley over 9.5 rebounds (+111) vs Milwaukee, Minnesota’s Julius Randle over 5.5 assists (+115) at New Orleans, and Denver’s Nikola Jokic over 10.5 assists (+107) vs Chicago.

Best odds as of 12:39 pm ET. See the pre-registration offers from Fanatics Sportsbook Missouri before launch in December 2025.

IND Pacers vs DET Pistons Prop Pick: Nembhard Under 18.5 Points

A.I. explanation: “Nembhard’s elevated scoring role has been unsustainable given his shooting efficiency, and he now faces his most challenging defensive test of the season against Detroit’s elite perimeter defense. Nembhard is shooting just 39.8% from the field this season while attempting 12.8 shots per game. This level of inefficiency becomes particularly problematic against elite defenses that force difficult shots and limit clean looks. His recent scoring surge has been volume-driven rather than efficiency-based, making regression likely against superior competition.”

LA Clippers vs PHI 76ers Prop Pick: Maxey Over 3.5 Threes

A.I. explanation: “Maxey’s 9.5 three-point attempts per home game provide exceptional volume against the Clippers’ compromised perimeter defense. LA allows opponents to connect on 38.7% from beyond the arc while surrendering 15.1 made threes per contest. The 76ers’ sharpshooter converts 38.1% of his home three-point attempts, well above the 28.6% break-even rate needed for this prop. Against teams allowing 38%+ three-point accuracy, Maxey averages 4.2 made threes across eight qualifying games this season.”

MIL Bucks vs CLE Cavaliers Prop Pick: Mobley Over 9.5 Rebounds

A.I. explanation: “Mobley has elevated his rebounding production to 10.0 boards per game over his last four contests, compared to his 9.0 season average. More critically, he’s averaging 4.0 offensive rebounds during this stretch, demonstrating increased aggression on the glass. Milwaukee’s rebounding deficiency creates an ideal scenario for Mobley to exceed his total. The Bucks’ 46.6% rebound rate and tendency to surrender 12.4 offensive boards per game directly benefits athletic big men who crash the glass consistently. Mobley’s recent form, combined with Milwaukee’s systematic weakness, suggests he should comfortably surpass 9.5 rebounds.”

NY Knicks vs MIA Heat Prop Pick: Robinson Over 7.5 Rebounds

A.I. explanation: “This represents the clearest statistical mismatch available. Miami’s league-worst defensive rebounding becomes even more vulnerable without Bam Adebayo anchoring the interior. The Heat allow 15.2 offensive rebounds per game while posting the NBA’s worst 69.8% defensive rebound percentage. Robinson thrives as one of the sport’s most tenacious glass crashers, averaging 5.8 offensive rebounds per game while serving as the engine for New York’s second-chance offense. In his last four games, Robinson has pulled down 6.25 offensive boards, demonstrating current form that should continue against Miami’s depleted frontcourt.”

CHA Hornets vs TOR Raptors Prop Pick: Quickley Over 2.5 Threes

A.I. explanation: “Quickley enters this matchup in peak shooting form against the perfect opponent to extend his hot streak. The statistical case is overwhelming when examining Charlotte’s defensive struggles from beyond the arc. Charlotte allows opponents to shoot a catastrophic .412 from three-point range, ranking dead last in the NBA. On the road, their three-point defense becomes even more porous, surrendering 16.2 made threes per game at 44.5% shooting in away contests. Quickley has been unconscious from deep over his last five games, draining 3.6 threes per contest while shooting an elite 48.6% from beyond the arc. His season average of 2.3 made threes understates his current ceiling level.”

DAL Mavericks vs MIN T-Wolves Prop Pick: Randle Over 5.5 Assists

A.I. explanation: “Randle has transformed into an elite facilitator, averaging 6.2 assists per game while posting 7.2 over his last five contests. His 2.38 assist-to-turnover ratio demonstrates exceptional ball security for a forward. Anthony Davis’ absence removes Dallas’ primary help defender, forcing the Mavericks to collapse on Randle’s paint touches. He generates 12.2 points per game in the paint, demanding defensive attention that creates passing lanes. At home, Randle averages 6.7 assists per game, reflecting his comfort level in familiar surroundings.”

OKC Thunder vs NO Pelicans Prop Pick: Murphy III Over 16.5 Points

A.I. explanation: “While Oklahoma City boasts the league’s premier defense, Murphy’s recent offensive explosion and expanded role create value that the betting market hasn’t fully recognized. Murphy has erupted for 27.8 points per game over his last five contests, a massive increase from his 19.8 season average. This isn’t merely hot shooting – his 17.6 shot attempts and 28.1% usage rate during this stretch confirm his elevated role. In six home games this season, Murphy averages 21.5 points on 16.2 field goal attempts. His comfort level at the Smoothie King Center translates to aggressive shot selection and confident execution.”

CHI Bulls vs DEN Nuggets Prop Pick: Jokic Over 10.5 Assists

A.I. explanation: “At home, Jokić has been extraordinary as a facilitator, averaging 13.0 assists per game across six contests at Ball Arena this season. The Bulls’ compromised defense (114.5 Defensive Rating) lacks the personnel to disrupt Denver’s ball movement effectively. Against defenses ranked in the bottom third defensively, he’s averaged 12.8 assists per game at home.

The plus-money pricing reflects market uncertainty about his assist volume, but Denver’s 50.6% field goal percentage ensures that quality looks convert at a high rate. With Chicago likely playing from behind, possessions will increase, creating additional opportunities for Jokić to orchestrate the offense.”