Best NBA Win Totals to Bet Ahead of Opening Night

• The NBA season tips off on Tuesday, October 21
• Defending champion Oklahoma City posted the best single-season Net Rating of all-time last season
• See my favorite NBA win totals to bet ahead of Opening Night below.

Opening Night tips off Tuesday, which means it’s time to dive into the futures market. I’m hunting for value in the win totals category, looking to capitalize on lines that vary from my projections.

My three favorite bets in the NBA win totals are listed below, starting where else but with the defending champs.

Best NBA Win Totals to Bet

The Thunder’s win total sits at 62.5, a number they soared over last season despite key injuries. This team is young and hungry to repeat, and I wouldn’t rule out a 70 win season.

I’m also betting the over on the Celtics win total of 41.5, as they can certainly contend in a watered down East. No NBA win totals card is complete without at least one under bet, and the Kings seem like the most likely candidate to fall short of expectations.

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NBA Win Total Pick #1: Thunder Over 62.5

OK wasn’t just good last season, they were historically great. They finished with the highest single-season Net Rating of all-time (13.5) passing the Michael Jordan led 95-96 Bulls.

The Thunder are the deserving NBA championship odds favorites at +275, a price nearly three times shorter than the next closest contender. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP, while this team can win by margin even on nights where their shooting is cold.

OKC Thunder 2024-25 Stats

Oklahoma City held enemy shooters to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions last season, 2.5 points lower than anyone else. They have elite defenders at every position on the floor, with incredible depth to back them up.

That will help them overcome any potential injury issues, just like it did last season. Bigs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein combined to miss 75 games, and these guys still posted a record setting point differential. The depth will be tested immediately on Opening Night as Jalen Williams is dealing with a wrist injury, but there’s more than enough scoring and defense to overcome his absence.

OKC’s roster boasts three of the top-23 players in the league, and features only body north of 27 years of age. With youth on their side and fire in their bellies, they’ll sail over 62.5 victories.

NBA Win Total Bet #2: Celtics Over 41.5

The East is incredibly weak this season, paving the way for some surprise contenders to emerge. That sums up Boston in my eyes, as few people expect much from this group given the players they’ve lost.

Jayson Tatum is recovering from a torn Achilles, while Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are gone. They did add Anfernee Simons however, and if he can replace 60% of Tatum’s scoring the Celts will be just fine.

That’s because they have two elite wings in Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. The former is one of the league’s premier scorers, while White is the definition of a jack-of-all trades. No team is going to shoot more 3’s this season, and the addition of Simons should speed up their offense opening up even more shot attempts.

They’ll have plenty of nights where the long range jumpers aren’t falling, but this team is too talented and well coached to finish below .500 in the weaker conference.

There’s also a chance Tatum could return early. Believe it or not, he’s already dunking just months after his injury, and a late-season comeback is in the cards if the Celtics are competitive. I’m betting they will be, and we’ll see Boston exceed their win total and make the playoffs.

NBA Win Total Prediction #3: Kings Under 35.5

While the East is lacking quality teams, the West is overflowing with them. That’s going to make wins especially tough to come by for the conference bottom-feeders like Sacramento.

It wasn’t long ago that the Kings were a team on the rise, but sadly those days are over. Their best player Domantas Sabonis may be seeking a trade, and the team just spent all summer trying to get rid of veterans DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk. I don’t expect the ladder two to last long in Sacramento, creating more holes on an already weak roster.

The Kings don’t have any rim protection, and just lost one of their best defenders Keegan Murray to injury. Sacramento allowed 1.07 points per drive last season, the worst mark in the league, and didn’t do enough to address their glaring weaknesses.

What they really need to do is blow this team up and start over, which is sad since it wasn’t long ago they had both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton in their backcourt.