Bucks vs Heat Game 4 Picks and Odds

• Miami Heat one win away from sweeping top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks
• Giannis Antetokounmpo struggling offensively in series
• See the odds, our analysis and best bets for Game 4 below

It’s the black hole stat in basketball – and no team has been able to climb out of it. Ever.

On Sunday, the Milwaukee Bucks — owner of the best record in the league and top seed in the NBA Playoffs — will be the 140th team to try to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. First off, they’ll look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Miami Heat.

The Bucks vs Heat odds for Game 4 still show much respect to Milwaukee.

Bucks vs Heat vs Game 4 Odds

Odds taken September 4. Tip-off is 3:40pm ET

On Friday night, Miami beat the Bucks 115-100 to move to within one win of a trip the East Finals, a perch they’ve not climbed since dudes named LeBron, Wade and Bosh dotted the roster.

Is it time to bring out the brooms? Let’s explore the best betting options.

Miami Putting On The Vice

The Heat are the last undefeated team in the playoff bubble, moving to 7-0 with a spirited come-from-behind win against the Bucks. The 12-point fourth-quarter deficit they erased is the largest in franchise history.

Miami blew the Bucks out of the water in the final frame, outscoring them 40-13. Jimmy Butler outscored Milwaukee’s entire output 17-13, part of his game-high 30 points. Butler was unstoppable, carving up anyone tasked with stopping him — including freshly minted Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Jimmy Butler scores on Giannis in clutch, looks right at the Bucks bench and says “He cant guard me.” pic.twitter.com/uruqgcvFdS

— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) September 5, 2020

Butler’s play is just as important as his confidence, which borders on irrational, but it fits right in line with this Miami squad. They’re deep, they’re talented, and they’re relentless.

No less than six players are scoring in double figures in this series for the Heat, hitting Milwaukee from all different angles. That was the case again in Game 3, with a particular hot streak from beyond the arc. Miami hit 18 moneyballs, a +21 scoring advantage against the Bucks, with Tyler Herro and Jae Crowder each drilling long distance daggers in a punishing fourth quarter onslaught.

Jimmy Butler drops a dime bounce pass to Jae Crowder for 3

Jimmy knew it was good 👌👌👌 pic.twitter.com/J4OjloUh0f

— Rob Lopez (@r0bato) September 5, 2020

But they’ve really put the clamps on defensively. Miami is second in the playoffs in points allowed per game (103.0), trailing only Boston. They held the Bucks to 43.5% shooting in Game 2 and 42.9% shooting in Game 3.

Their formula is simple: Miami grinds all game, stays within range, and finish with a kick, usually led by Butler, but supported by a cast of many.

Bewildered Bucks

No matter how well Milwaukee rebounded from last year’s collapse to the Raptors in the East Final (blowing a 2-0 series lead), there were always whispers about how their free-wheeling, free-shooting regular season domination would translate to the playoffs. We’re getting an idea now.

Jimmy Butler pulls the chair on Giannis and pushes him back down when he tried to get up. 😂pic.twitter.com/O6QXaMKb9H

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) September 2, 2020

It starts and ends with Giannis, who is the likely landslide winner for repeat MVP, but ways away from the offensive polish he needs to carry his team in the playoffs.

After averaging better than 30 points, 16 boards and six assists on 61.7% shooting from the field and 39.9% from three against the Magic in Round 1, Giannis has been stifled by Miami’s defense. They’re daring him to shoot, and packing the paint on his drives. The numbers don’t lie: 22.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists, while shooting 46.3% from the field and a minuscule 13.3% from three.

Giannis picked the wrong time to possibly win MVP and DPOY.

— Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) September 5, 2020

While he was slowed by an ankle sprain in the first quarter, Antetokounmpo was 0-for-7 from beyond the arc in Game 3, including two misses in the fourth quarter when the Bucks combined to shoot 0-for-10 from deep. In a game where Brook Lopez (22 points) and Khris Middleton (18 points) played their roles, Giannis needed to be better.

Budenholzer says Giannis/Middleton playign 35-36 minutes is “pushing the ceiling”…wow

— Vincent Goodwill (@VinceGoodwill) September 5, 2020

Perhaps head coach Mike Budenholzer might consider giving his star heavier minutes. In what amounted to a must-win, Antetokounmpo logged just 34 minutes. He averaged just 31 minutes a game in the regular season.

To put that into context: in their must-win Game 3 against Boston, Kyle Lowry played 46 minutes, and Fred VanVleet played 45.

What’s The Best Bet?

Forget the controversial Game 2 loss, the Bucks shrunk in the clutch as a team in Game 3, and their spirit looked to be ripped right out of their bodies. Expect a strong Milwaukee performance to start, but a Miami counterpunch which should overwhelm them, and sweep them right out of the postseason.

The pick: Heat -1 (-110)