Bucks vs Suns Prediction, Player Props & Injury Report: Is Giannis Playing? (March 21)

• The Suns are 11-point home favorites over the Bucks on Saturday night
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) has been ruled out for Milwaukee
• Check out my Bucks vs Suns prediction, player props and injury report below

The Milwaukee Bucks (28-41, 12-22 away) head to Phoenix to take on the Suns (39-31, 22-13 home) on Saturday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 pm ET, with NBA TV, FDSWI and AZFamily providing the broadcast coverage.

Phoenix is desperate to snap a four-game losing skid and avoid sliding into the play-in tournament as the current 7-seed. Milwaukee’s season has gone sideways, losing six of their last seven including a 32-point blowout to Utah.

Online sportsbooks have the Suns as massive home favorites in the latest NBA odds, and the biggest reason why is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s availability.

Jump to: Prediction | Player Props | Injury Report

Bucks vs Suns Prediction

My Bucks vs. Suns prediction has Phoenix covering the 11-point spread at home. It’s a big number, but everything lines up for the Suns in this spot.

Giannis has been ruled out with a left knee hyperextension, and without him, Milwaukee’s offense falls off a cliff. The Bucks are already 28th in the NBA in scoring at 111.0 points per game, and that number gets worse on the road. They’re 12-22 away from home and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record.

Phoenix has its own injury issues (more on that below), but the Suns are 42-24 ATS on the season and 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games against teams with a losing record. They beat Milwaukee 129-114 less than two weeks ago, and that was with the Bucks at closer to full strength.

Bucks vs Suns Key Stats

The rebounding gap is massive. Phoenix ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive rebounds at 12.90 per game, while Milwaukee is dead last at 8.67. Without Giannis cleaning the glass, that disparity is only going to get wider. The Suns also rank 4th in steals, which means they’ll create extra possessions and transition opportunities against a Bucks team that turns the ball over 14.62 times per game.

The under is also worth a look here. Both teams play at a slow pace (Milwaukee 23rd, Phoenix 26th), and the under has cashed in five straight Bucks road games. It’s also 5-0 in Milwaukee road games against teams with a home winning percentage above .600. The total has already been bet down from 219.5 to 217.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip further.

Bucks vs Suns Odds

The Bucks vs Suns odds have Phoenix as an 11-point home favorite with a -550 moneyline, which translates to roughly an 80% implied probability of winning outright.

Milwaukee comes back at +450 on the moneyline and +11 on the spread. The total sits at 217.5 after dropping two points from the opener.

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Bucks vs Suns Player Props

Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points (-120 at Fanatics)

My favorite Bucks vs Suns player prop is Devin Booker over 27.5 points. Book scored 22 in the most recent meeting against Milwaukee on March 10, but he went 8-of-21 from the field in that one. I’m betting on a better shooting night at home with even less resistance in front of him.

Without Giannis patrolling the paint, Milwaukee loses its primary weak-side rim protector. Booker should see plenty of clean looks driving to the basket, and the Bucks rank 25th in defensive rating at 115.5. Phoenix is also missing Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen and several other rotation pieces, which means Booker will need to carry a heavier offensive load than usual.

He’s averaging 25.8 points per game at home this season, and with the NBA player props line set just under two points above that average, this feels like a spot where Booker goes for 30-plus.

Bucks vs Suns Injury Report: Is Giannis Playing?

No, Giannis Antetokounmpo is not playing tonight. The two-time MVP has been ruled out with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise. His absence is the single biggest factor driving the 11.5-point spread.

Milwaukee also has Gary Harris (groin), Kevin Porter Jr. (knee) and Gary Trent Jr. (thigh) all listed as questionable. If any of those guys sit, the Bucks lose even more backcourt depth and secondary scoring. Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma will be asked to carry most of the offensive weight upfront.

Phoenix isn’t exactly healthy either. Dillon Brooks (hand) and Mark Williams (foot) are both out indefinitely. Amir Coffey (ankle) and Haywood Highsmith (knee) have been ruled out for Saturday. Grayson Allen (knee) and Royce O’Neale (knee) are both questionable for Sunday’s listing but could suit up tonight.

That’s six Suns on the injury report, but the most important name is healthy. As long as Booker is out there, Phoenix has enough to handle a short-handed Milwaukee team that’s lost six of seven. I’m taking the Suns -11.5 and Booker over 27.5 points as my Bucks vs Suns picks for Saturday night.